Will all the brands survive ?

[coobie]

This is typical misconception about who is big and who isn't. Mahindra will be #1 in world tractor sales soon. All the imports are making better money on the weak US dollar too.

YouTube - Mahindra stalks top tractor sales spot

IMHO Mahindra makes a very nice tractor I almost bought one.What they lack at the main headquaters in tomball texas is customer service.If they intend to be a big player is the US market they need to deliver better customer service.coobie

 

[john_bud]

Well, since all (yes ALL) tractors sold in the USA at 45 hp and under are imported, they will ALL cost more as the value of the dollar drops.

Dropping dollar makes oil cost more, makes imports cost more, but makes us a better place to export from.

I do find it funny that the folks in politics that whine about high prices at the pump are also the ones that want lower CO2 emissions, lower fuel consumption etc. Now that they have it, they whine. Typical.

jb

 

[GaryCrowell]

This is typical misconception about who is big and who isn't. Mahindra will be #1 in world tractor sales soon. All the imports are making better money on the weak US dollar too.

YouTube - Mahindra stalks top tractor sales spot

Mahindra might sell a lot of tractors, but they're not a player in the agricultural equipment market. Ag equipment is what's experiencing a boom right now, the small tractor market (where mahindra is solely located) is what's going to take a hit in the U.S.

Mahindra sells a lot of tractors to third world countries and that's not where the money is located. I'd imagine most of their volume is from cheap, no-frills tractors that don't bring a lot of profit. Mahindra worldwide will probably do OK, but it's U.S. division will take a big hit with the upcoming hard economic times due to the fact that they only sell homeowner machines.

 

[D7E]

Farmers have to buy machinery from time to time regardless of current prices and will always favour mainstream brands ...Ford NH,JD,Case IH,MF.....?

 

[Farmwithjunk]

Better chance than not a few will fall by the wayside as things get worse. And times will get worse. The fall has just started with no sign of the decline slowing yet. Homeowner/"ranchette" tractor markets will take a harder hit in the near term than AG markets, but in due time, that will likely slow too.

Keep in mind that MOST of our concerns are based primarily on US markets and US economic conditions. Granted the WORLD economy is in turmoil, but a couple major markets are currently eating up tractors. (China/India) Times like today are why all the big players started "globalizing" decades ago. It's the ol' "Don't put all your eggs in one basket" theory put to the test.

20 to 25 years ago, the farm industry went through some of the toughest times since the great depression. The 80's took out a BUNCH of what were perceived as strong companies along with a great many "successful farmers". The equipment market was flat for years after because production of equipment prior to those times was at such a high level, the economic downturn left a glut of used late model tractors, combines, ect, that served as competition to the new market for years to follow. Several big players dried up and went away, or were in such dire straits, they ended up selling their "name" to a handful of brands who had the assets and good management to hang on. THAT's what it will take now. GOOD MANAGEMENT. The comment was made earlier in this thread how only the producers of the "best" equipment will make it. While that may be true to some extent, it isn't a lock. International Harvester was arguably one of the 2 "best in the business" when the 1980's and bad management teamed up to bring them to their knees. About 1975, if you would have walked into any meeting of farmers and said that in 10 years IH was going to be selling off what's left of a broken company, you would have been laughed right out the door. But that happened.

For the near future, it won't be so much about growth as it will be about survival skills and adaptation to changing times.

See y'all back here in 20 years to take stock of who survived and who didn't.

 

[Soundguy]

Wondering if all the new (or existing brands) of tractors will survive the coming economic down turn ?
Things are going to get rough for the economy, gas will be 4-5 gallon this summer, houses are losing upto 50% of their value, food is going up, tax's are going to go up.

and all these "new" tractor companies coming on the scene, how many will be history 2 years from now ?

Slack

I doubt we will loose any in the immediate future.. but as time has shown.. even major brands do go away.. or merge.. etc.

Looking in the recent past.. look at farmtrack.. 2ys ago I would have thought they'd be here for a while..

soundguy

 

[Builder]

My guess is the Chinese players go first. Here's my reasons:

1.Weakest dealer networks
2.Falling value of dollar to Chinese currency will increase Chi tractor prices
3.Used tractors in the size range they build will be inexpensive, attractive alternatives
4.Chinese farmers need all the tractors they can get

 

[DavesTractor]

Mahindra might sell a lot of tractors, but they're not a player in the agricultural equipment market. Ag equipment is what's experiencing a boom right now, the small tractor market (where mahindra is solely located) is what's going to take a hit in the U.S.

Mahindra sells a lot of tractors to third world countries and that's not where the money is located. I'd imagine most of their volume is from cheap, no-frills tractors that don't bring a lot of profit. Mahindra worldwide will probably do OK, but it's U.S. division will take a big hit with the upcoming hard economic times due to the fact that they only sell homeowner machines.

Mahindra goes to 75 HP which gets a few on the farms, but it is true that they are not yet into the big equipment. I don't know if they have plans to go much bigger than 100HP. I know they will have a 85HP machine this year.

Having big ag machines would give them more diversity and that normally helps. They have diversified in another way though, they have their SUV and pickup division, medium duty truck division, IT division, Resorts and Properties division, financial sector, etc. They are spread out some some, they don't have all their eggs in one basket. As such, all they need is resolve to stick it out if they end up with a decline in the smaller machines. They have that resolve, that is clear to me.

 

[billbill1]

If he economy continues on a downward spiral, people won't be purchasing tractors and in fact the market could be flooded with used machines as people lose their property. Lots of things can fold in these situations. The price of transportation could drive people back to the cities and off of the small acre plots that they are living on now. A huge mortgage and no job can cause more problems than tractor ownership and who will survive and who won't. Like Bill (FWJ), I saw many farms fold in the 80's that were paid for at one time. New equipment was bought against the land and the land was forclosed on. Too early to call right now but many brands could be in trouble before things gets better.

 

[Builder]

I agree. If you're making money in these times, there's going to be some great deals out there. Lots of property is coming on the market and it's going for prices well below what it would have sold for 2 years ago.