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  1. #1
    New Member Jerry Cruise's Avatar
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    Default How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?

  2. #2
    Super Member Farmwithjunk's Avatar
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    Where do I begin.....

    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Cruise View Post
    I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?

    You, and about 99% of the farm equipment dealers in the world......
    There are three kinds of men;
    1.) The ones that learn by reading
    2.) The few who learn by observation
    3.) The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.

  3. #3
    Veteran Member
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    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    I want one.

    Does that help?

  4. #4
    Elite Member smstonypoint's Avatar
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    NH TN 55, Kubota B2320 & RTV 900, Bad Boy Outlaw 61" ZTR

    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Cruise View Post
    I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?
    Jerry,

    There have been several papers published in agricultural economics journals that deal with the demand for farm tractors.

    Two questions.

    1. Can you access academic journals through a library?

    2. Do you have any econometric skills?

    Steve

  5. #5
    Platinum Member retiredmgn's Avatar
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    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Cruise View Post
    I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?
    Tarrot cards. I've heard they're killer.
    And while you're at it if you come accross any insight into stock market swings let us know. We will forever be grateful.

  6. #6
    Veteran Member
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    Prince Edward Island, Canada
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    Kioti DK45SC

    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    I haven't followed the literature on this, so I can't be of much help to you. However, I can add some complexity to your question.
    I suspect the emphasis of any literature you uncover on the topic will be on Farm tractors, not the CUT/subCUT market. Farm tractors are somewhat less of a discretionary item, though "good times" in agriculture may accelerate a purchase decision (and lean times may delay it).
    There is a much larger discretionary component in the CUT market, though. I guess what I'm saying is that farmers are driven more by economic decisions, whereas most CUT owners don't really expect their tractor to pay off in $$ savings or income generated; there certainly is a convenience/labor-savings issue and pride of ownership, etc. but less often a real financial payoff from CUT ownership.
    At the very least, with farm tractors, one could crudely estimate demand based on a combination of technological factors (acreages, equipment optimization, equipment depreciation and so forth) as well as economic tradeoffs (debt loading, cash flow, resale, etc.), or you could just look at recent (say 10-15 yr) history of actual sales and project it forward!

    Anyway, good luck.

    BOB

  7. #7
    Elite Member jonyyuma's Avatar
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    35 miles North of Memphis,TN
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    kubota L3000dt, ford 8n1952

    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    Predict that more will be needed and they will be higher.. Steel is steadily going for a higher price. Tractors are very handy...and hold value better than most other items.
    Okay, Legal disclaimer: Old but not senile, definitely do not have the answer to everything!

  8. #8
    Elite Member smstonypoint's Avatar
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    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    Quote Originally Posted by retiredmgn View Post
    Tarrot cards. I've heard they're killer.
    And while you're at it if you come accross any insight into stock market swings let us know. We will forever be grateful.
    I'm guessing that John Deere, kubota, CNH, etc. don't rely on tarot cards in their production planning.

    Steve

  9. #9
    Elite Member teg's Avatar
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    Raleigh, NC Hillsville, VA
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    L2800 - HST

    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    "HE" or the computer doesn't really care about forecasting... it just puts ads (ie. spam) in the signature threads...

  10. #10
    Elite Member smstonypoint's Avatar
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    Default Re: How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

    Quote Originally Posted by teg View Post
    "HE" or the computer doesn't really care about forecasting... it just puts ads (ie. spam) in the signature threads...
    Oops.

    Thanks for pointing that out -- I didn't catch it. I was going to provide "him" with some sources in the academic literature.

    Steve

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