How can i forecast the demand for tractors?

[Jerry Cruise]

I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?

[Farmwithjunk]

I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?

You, and about 99% of the farm equipment dealers in the world......

[rtimgray]

I want one.

Does that help?

[smstonypoint]

I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?

Jerry,

There have been several papers published in agricultural economics journals that deal with the demand for farm tractors.

Two questions.

1. Can you access academic journals through a library?

2. Do you have any econometric skills?

Steve

[retiredmgn]

I need to forecast the demand for tractors? Can some one help me?

Tarrot cards. I've heard they're killer.
And while you're at it if you come accross any insight into stock market swings let us know. We will forever be grateful.

[rd_macgregor]

I haven't followed the literature on this, so I can't be of much help to you. However, I can add some complexity to your question.
I suspect the emphasis of any literature you uncover on the topic will be on Farm tractors, not the CUT/subCUT market. Farm tractors are somewhat less of a discretionary item, though "good times" in agriculture may accelerate a purchase decision (and lean times may delay it).
There is a much larger discretionary component in the CUT market, though. I guess what I'm saying is that farmers are driven more by economic decisions, whereas most CUT owners don't really expect their tractor to pay off in $$ savings or income generated; there certainly is a convenience/labor-savings issue and pride of ownership, etc. but less often a real financial payoff from CUT ownership.
At the very least, with farm tractors, one could crudely estimate demand based on a combination of technological factors (acreages, equipment optimization, equipment depreciation and so forth) as well as economic tradeoffs (debt loading, cash flow, resale, etc.), or you could just look at recent (say 10-15 yr) history of actual sales and project it forward!

Anyway, good luck.

BOB

[jonyyuma]

Predict that more will be needed and they will be higher.. Steel is steadily going for a higher price. Tractors are very handy...and hold value better than most other items.

[smstonypoint]

Tarrot cards. I've heard they're killer.
And while you're at it if you come accross any insight into stock market swings let us know. We will forever be grateful.

I'm guessing that John deere, Kubota, CNH, etc. don't rely on tarot cards in their production planning.

Steve

[teg]

"HE" or the computer doesn't really care about forecasting... it just puts ads (ie. spam) in the signature threads...

[smstonypoint]

"HE" or the computer doesn't really care about forecasting... it just puts ads (ie. spam) in the signature threads...

Oops.

Thanks for pointing that out -- I didn't catch it. I was going to provide "him" with some sources in the academic literature.

Steve