I don't know as much as you guys about hay production but I have a lot of farmer pals and can share our area's performance.
The dairy guys usually take 3 cuts, heavy on the alfalfa, around here. Most horse, cattle, sheep hay producers get 1 good first cut in June and another lower quality cut (that usually is about half the yeild) per season.
The 1st cut for the guys came off pretty good this year but then the heat wave hit and it didn't rain for ages and ages. Even the corn and many trees were getting brown along the leaf edges. On Sunday I noticed a local dairy guy, who is always the first to cut, had taken his 2nd cut and it shocked me. He must have cut Saturday and baled Sunday. The alfalfa was not high at all before he cut and it must have been dry as dust. The field almost looks like one that had wheat cut off it with nothing but short brown mowed stems now.
It's started to rain again, we got 3 inches probably or more in the last 36 hours but I don't know how good 2nd cut will be for the guys, and hay will probably have a price spike for sure.
Around here, good hay in the 800 to 900 lb bale size would be $35 per bale (nice quality too) in a normal year. "Really expensive" horsey hay may hit $65 a bale for 4x5 that weighed 750lbs or so. I think the hay prices are stupid low really, they haven't increased the prices in 10 years even though costs have gone up. I think they could, albeit I feel for the cattle farmer if he does not grow his own. I've never seen a $100 bale ever around this area, regardless of size.
Interesting how the prices vary so much by area.