Crude Oil

[daedong]

Make your prediction of the price of crude oil In 1 year, 5 years, 10 years 20 years 50 years 100years I am sure TBN will still be here to see who is right and who is wrong /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

1 year $60
5 " $80
10 " $100
20 " $150
50 " $200
100 " $1000

 

[Moon]

Okay, I'll play:

1 year $58
5 " $66
10 " $68
20 " $74
50 " $90
100 " $111

* numbers not adjusted for inflation.

I wonder what the prices were for the past 50 or even 100 yrs. It would be interesting to compare if anyone has the numbers handy.

Moon of Ohio

 

[ByronBob]

Vin,

I'm in college right now taking 2 energy classes. The professionals tell me there won't be any oil in 100 years and 50 years is questionable.

The point will come when oil gets so expensive that alternate fuels will become more economical to use and oil will fade away.

 

[MikePA]

<font color="blue"> The professionals tell me there won't be any oil in 100 years and 50 years is questionable. </font>
Does this include oil from shale or are they referring to oil obtained using conventional drilling techniques?

 

[sneaky_pete]

Well, I'm a "professional" - I find oil and gas for a living. The second half of your post is more accurate than the first, but Vin has the right perspective. We will never use up all the crude oil, but it will get more and more expensive over time, to the point that we will only use it for manufacturing plastics and etc., not for fuel. But that point will come gradually over time, not all at once. Meanwhile, there are a lot of unconventional sources (tar sands, tight reservoirs, etc.) that can be exploited economically at high crude price scenarios. You can kiss cheap crude prices goodbye for good though.

Unfortunately, there is at present no economically viable alternative to fossil fuels for transportation.

Pete

 

[sneaky_pete]

</font><font color="blue" class="small">( I wonder what the prices were for the past 50 or even 100 yrs. It would be interesting to compare if anyone has the numbers handy.)</font>

Here are prices since 1946. One curve is adjusted for inflation, and one is not.

Pete

 

[slowrev]

Not sure on the price forcasts, but you can count on it to keep going up faster than in the past. And after all why not it is 100% natural and contains no colesterol or calories /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
Ben

 

[ByronBob]

I'm not a professional, not even an educated adult. As a matter of fact I'm wondering if I have any brain matter most of the time. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

My wife on certain days agree's with this idea!!! /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

When oil is pumped out of the ground we leave 70% of it in the ground because conventional methods are only that effective. So oil shale or just basic oil will always be in the ground but cost will decide when we abandon it.

Hybrid activities will continue to be popular as cost of fossil fuel increases. What the professors were trying to say is if we did nothing else but continue to use oil in the present capacity and hybrids or other methods didn't exist we'd run out in the next century.

 

[Moon]

Thanks Sneaky,
Daedong got me wondering .. and your link had the answers. Looking at the curves over time we have not done too bad.

One other news blip expressed it this way. If you traveled 1000 miles for vacation last year and wanted to do it again this year. It would cost you $60 more. Now, who would cancel a vacation over $60? Noone I'm guessing. Getting over that $2 a gallon mark hurts, but I think alot of it is psychological.

Moon of Ohio

 

[jmc]

My dread started after reading Hubbert's Peak a couple of years ago. Then when Ford announced about a year ago that their corporate strategy is based on no more cheap oil, I loaded up on oil stocks. Figured that Ford would be a likely victim of wishful thinking with their profitable fuel guzzlers and even they couldn't ignore the evidence. And now, OPEC has figured out that the world economy won't suffer from sustained higher crude prices.

Hope you guys in the energy sector can solve this because our politicians probably won't do much until we panic.

Sorry for the rant.

John