Global Warming?

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   / Global Warming? #91  
I apologise for the tone of my earlier, sarcastic posting on this subject. My response was due more to the tone of various other posts ridiculing Al Gore, a good man whom I see as sincere in his beliefs and in his attempts to address a real problem we all face, than as an intentional demeaning of anyone's ability to understand this very complex subject of global warming.

The National Academy of Science recently released a summary of the current research on global warming. I am not presently a member of the NAS, and I doubt I'll make it any time soon :D, though I do know one current member and another guy who may be elected to membership in the near future. In general, I tend to trust the judgement of this group on matters of science. Are they always right? Is anyone? Anyway, if you would care to read their thoughts on the subject, the link is below. It's a PDF file, so it takes a while to download. The article addresses many of the points made in earlier posts in what seems to me a reasonable manner. The recommendations for possible actions are assessed in "cost effective" terms.

http://dels.nas.edu/basc/Climate-HIGH.pdf

Chuck
 
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   / Global Warming? #92  
Science 10 November 2006:
Vol. 314. no. 5801, pp. 910 - 911
DOI: 10.1126/science.314.5801.910

Science/AAAS | Science Magazine: Sign In

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE:
Global Warming May Be Homing In on Atlantic Hurricanes

"The idea that increased hurricane activity might be connected to global warming first blew in with Katrina and her cohorts of the horrendous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Then two studies reported a striking increase in the number of intense storms around the world. And that increase was suspiciously in step with the warming of tropical waters whose heat fuels tropical cyclones (also called hurricanes or typhoons). But skeptics wondered: Should anyone trust the patchwork records of tropical cyclones compiled over the past century? And couldn't the surge in storms be part of a natural cycle?"

"Where the standard records from the northern Indian Ocean, the southern Indian Ocean, the western North Pacific, and the South Pacific showed rising trends of intensity, the reanalysis showed modest declines or no trend at all. And 85% of the world's tropical cyclones occur in these ocean basins. Outside the Atlantic storms show no signs of intensifying as the underlying waters warm, at least in the past 23 years.


FLIP-FLOP......maybe a couple hundred years of more study needed??? :eek:
 
   / Global Warming? #93  
Well, we should certainly know in 200 years ;). With luck we'll all get back to the forum in December 2206 and laugh about all the discussion concerning the obvious! Hind sight is marvelous. I hope we all can see our own hinds at times.:D On a serious note: It's called research because you keep going back to the same objects of study hoping to improve on your knowledge. It ain't no fun atall if you get it right the first time every time!

Chuck
 
   / Global Warming? #96  
For the record, I too have been published in a peer reviewed scientific journal (totally unrelated to global warming). That fact does not make me anymore qualified to discuss global warming than any of the other tractor owners here. But, suffice it to say that any large group of internet participants such as this will hold a surprising variety of intellects and achievements. Assuming otherwise can be embarrassing.

But as mentioned, being in a peer reviewed journal does not make anything factual. It only makes it accepted. And if that group of peers has a vested interest in 'proving something' a great deal of the value of peer review is lost. Groups that want to prove man-influenced global warming do more studies regarding global warming and they publish data that proves the point that they want to be proven. When the studies do not fit their agenda, they do not publish them. It is a form of selection bias. This is not intended to demean the value of such publications, its just to point out that these realities must be considered when forming an opinion. And that digging deeper is very very important if you want to get closer to the 'truth' in such matters.
 
   / Global Warming? #97  
Chuck52 said:
I apologise for the tone of my earlier, sarcastic posting on this subject. My response was due more to the tone of various other posts ridiculing Al Gore, a good man whom I see as sincere in his beliefs and in his attempts to address a real problem we all face, than as an intentional demeaning of anyone's ability to understand this very complex subject of global warming. Chuck
Click to expand...

Chuck,

Since I was the person who brought up Mr. Gore, I wanted to say that it wasn't to insult you or those who think he is a good man. I'm of the oposite opinion, but I have no hatred for him. I voted for him and had high hopes for what he would do. Unfortunatey, in my opinion, he is a hypocryte that seems to be at the forefront of global warming in his warnings and predictions, but doesn't do anything himself to stop these dire prediction that he supports.

If you believe that something is bad, you stop doing it. If you can make money on it, you tell everyone else to stop doing it, but keep doing it yourself. If your a politician, you do nothing about it while in office, than complain to everyone else that your replacement isn't doing anything about it. There are plenty of people on both sides of this who say one thing and do another, I just chose the most public one for my example.

As for being published, I've only been in hunting magazines and periodicals. Nothing scientific. I also don't have an education and probably wouldn't score very high on any IQ test. I'm just a working guy with a simple life that enjoys discussing different topics here that I find interesting.

Eddie
 
   / Global Warming? #98  
SkyPup said:
Science 10 November 2006:
Vol. 314. no. 5801, pp. 910 - 911
DOI: 10.1126/science.314.5801.910

Science/AAAS | Science Magazine: Sign In

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE:
Global Warming May Be Homing In on Atlantic Hurricanes

"The idea that increased hurricane activity might be connected to global warming first blew in with Katrina and her cohorts of the horrendous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Then two studies reported a striking increase in the number of intense storms around the world. And that increase was suspiciously in step with the warming of tropical waters whose heat fuels tropical cyclones (also called hurricanes or typhoons). But skeptics wondered: Should anyone trust the patchwork records of tropical cyclones compiled over the past century? And couldn't the surge in storms be part of a natural cycle?"

"Where the standard records from the northern Indian Ocean, the southern Indian Ocean, the western North Pacific, and the South Pacific showed rising trends of intensity, the reanalysis showed modest declines or no trend at all. And 85% of the world's tropical cyclones occur in these ocean basins. Outside the Atlantic storms show no signs of intensifying as the underlying waters warm, at least in the past 23 years.


FLIP-FLOP......maybe a couple hundred years of more study needed??? :eek:
Click to expand...



"For most of the world's tropical cyclones, existing records should not be trusted."

"The study showed that records of the intensity of most storms around the world have been skewed, producing the impression that tropical cyclones have been getting stronger globally."


Somewhere, someone, sometime thought that politicans pay any attention to scientists?

They do if they are on their payroll...... :D
 
   / Global Warming? #99  
N80 said:
For the record, I too have been published in a peer reviewed scientific journal (totally unrelated to global warming). That fact does not make me anymore qualified to discuss global warming than any of the other tractor owners here. But, suffice it to say that any large group of internet participants such as this will hold a surprising variety of intellects and achievements. Assuming otherwise can be embarrassing.

But as mentioned, being in a peer reviewed journal does not make anything factual. It only makes it accepted. And if that group of peers has a vested interest in 'proving something' a great deal of the value of peer review is lost. Groups that want to prove man-influenced global warming do more studies regarding global warming and they publish data that proves the point that they want to be proven. When the studies do not fit their agenda, they do not publish them. It is a form of selection bias. This is not intended to demean the value of such publications, its just to point out that these realities must be considered when forming an opinion. And that digging deeper is very very important if you want to get closer to the 'truth' in such matters.
Click to expand...


Very good points, and one reason I find the NAS review of the science behind global warming valuable is that the NAS consists of members from all branches of science. If they have a vested interest in a particular view, it's difficult for me to see how it would benefit their membership. As I mentioned, that review also addresses at least some of the data which seems to refute the concept, though I am sure not to a degree which will satisfy all readers. Again, I think it is worth noting that possible remedies are discussed with attention to their economic feasability. We're not going to give up our automobiles. It just isn't going to happen, short of an immediate disaster. Make them more energy efficient? Sure, why not? Use more nuclear power to replace coal-fired plants? Got my vote. We can deal with the nuclear waste easier than the polutants from fossil fuels. Of course I don't want the waste in my back yard! :D

Chuck
 
   / Global Warming? #100  
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace ALARMED
(( and hence clamorous to be led to safety))
By menacing it with endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary

H.L. Mencken

fuel shortages - Y2k - Benladin - global warming ect....:eek:

The sheeple will follow every time
 
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