Gale Hawkins
Super Member
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2009
- Messages
- 8,268
- Location
- Murray, KY
- Tractor
- 1948 Allis Chambers Model B 1976 265 MF / 1983 JD 310B Backhoe / 1966 Ford 3000 Diesel / 1980 3600 Diesel
Musk seems to be another like Steve Jobs that states his vision for the future and leads the people into that future. My personal problem with Jobs was he supported a closed standard in computers where IBM PC was an Open Structure but in the end open or closed made no difference because few even open up any computer to upgrade the processor, harddrive or memory today. We need to be careful putting down those with large visions and more mental horsepower for the future than we are able to demostrate.
I see little interest from the babyboomer generation in EV's but a few of us remember the EV false start of the 80's and 90's are still looking forward to the breakout of mainstream EV interest that is happening world wide today. The babyboom generation (1946-1964) is checking out at a fast rate leaving homes and tractors looking for a new homes. This is the reason I see the developing EV market demands coming from those born in 1965 or later.
When EV's are 10+ years from outselling new ICE's and one does not plan to live to see 2030 the negative mindset of some towards EV's are understandable if they have painted themselves out of the picture near term.
Going from 2000 to 200 moving parts is going to cut production costs. Batteries are a fraction of the cost of 10 years ago and still dropping fast.
Look at the dash of this truck due out next year. It is just a flat panel computer screen that cost next to nothing and all software driven so no dash full of wires like new trucks on the market today. A new gauge or a tweaked control can be added while we sleep and it can be there when we boot the truck's computer the next time we drive it.
Losing dealerships due to new technology needing less service (when is the last time you took your personal computer to a computer shop) may just be a fact of life. People trained by Amazon to do their shopping and purchasing online will shun car salespersons more than ever. We in the Social Security collection years is not the market Tesla and Apple are marketing to any longer. We may have to most purchasing power on average today but in the next 5-10 years more and more of that will be transferred to the government (taxes due on 401's etc) and heirs.
In short what we think about the future is mostly a non issue because we are short on time to be meaningful. I got the older and lower cost Leaf (2016) based on older technology to help the kids age 22 to see that EV's are in their futures and why they will replace the ICE's in time. Yes self driving is of high interest to me so I can keep owning a car after most kids have pulled the keys from their parents. Cars that do not cross the centerline if we stroke out or that stop when something is in front of us is a safety feature that I want.
Trucks with 100% of their torque before they even start to move will make better tow vehicles we all know.
F-150's are a popular truck in some parts. Ask your Ford dealer if they are getting rich off of new F-150 sales of work trucks with black grilles. Look at the kinds of grilles in the pickups at Hardee's, McDonalds, local diners this morning or afternoon and you will see most of the PU's are NOT used as work trucks but are owned by coffee drinkers drawing Social Security and may be the last vehicle they ever plan to purchase before they give up their keys.
Musk or others like him will rule the day long term. PU's are now just oversize cars and SUV's for the most part. The work trucks will be around for a long time but will be EV's more and more after 2030. Power grids in our region supports mostly all electric homes more and more. Wood heat is leaving fast if one wants homeowners insurance and if a bank is involved we want homeowners insurance.
There may be a lot of noise and false starts where EV's are concerned over the next 10 years but come 2030 no one will doubt they are already here to stay. I expect the lithium ion battery will be replaced by new technology by 2030 that we are not talking about today.
I know a guy that bought a new Ram 3500 diesel in 2011. In 2016 he traded it for a new four door Jeep (not the SUV type) then after 3 months traded it for a 2016 Rav4 then traded it for a 2017 Dodge Ram gas burner then traded it for a 2018 Ram 1500 with the six cylinder diesel and just traded it for a new Rav4. He said he could not reach to oil dipstick in the last Ram so he went back to a new Rav4. He drives 8K miles annually and 100 mile round trip is the max I think he as made 99.9% of the time since 2011. I stopped by yesterday when he was checking his oil which he does often. I never seen so much stuff under the hood of a 4 cylinder gas engine. The EV's take away that complexity now added to ICE's to reduce pollution so it is becoming clear the ICE's will become history even without the fines coming for car companies that keep producing them and that we will pay in the end.
My thoughts on the Tesla PU just revealed will not make it a winner or loser I expect.
I see little interest from the babyboomer generation in EV's but a few of us remember the EV false start of the 80's and 90's are still looking forward to the breakout of mainstream EV interest that is happening world wide today. The babyboom generation (1946-1964) is checking out at a fast rate leaving homes and tractors looking for a new homes. This is the reason I see the developing EV market demands coming from those born in 1965 or later.
When EV's are 10+ years from outselling new ICE's and one does not plan to live to see 2030 the negative mindset of some towards EV's are understandable if they have painted themselves out of the picture near term.
Going from 2000 to 200 moving parts is going to cut production costs. Batteries are a fraction of the cost of 10 years ago and still dropping fast.
Look at the dash of this truck due out next year. It is just a flat panel computer screen that cost next to nothing and all software driven so no dash full of wires like new trucks on the market today. A new gauge or a tweaked control can be added while we sleep and it can be there when we boot the truck's computer the next time we drive it.
Losing dealerships due to new technology needing less service (when is the last time you took your personal computer to a computer shop) may just be a fact of life. People trained by Amazon to do their shopping and purchasing online will shun car salespersons more than ever. We in the Social Security collection years is not the market Tesla and Apple are marketing to any longer. We may have to most purchasing power on average today but in the next 5-10 years more and more of that will be transferred to the government (taxes due on 401's etc) and heirs.
In short what we think about the future is mostly a non issue because we are short on time to be meaningful. I got the older and lower cost Leaf (2016) based on older technology to help the kids age 22 to see that EV's are in their futures and why they will replace the ICE's in time. Yes self driving is of high interest to me so I can keep owning a car after most kids have pulled the keys from their parents. Cars that do not cross the centerline if we stroke out or that stop when something is in front of us is a safety feature that I want.
Trucks with 100% of their torque before they even start to move will make better tow vehicles we all know.
F-150's are a popular truck in some parts. Ask your Ford dealer if they are getting rich off of new F-150 sales of work trucks with black grilles. Look at the kinds of grilles in the pickups at Hardee's, McDonalds, local diners this morning or afternoon and you will see most of the PU's are NOT used as work trucks but are owned by coffee drinkers drawing Social Security and may be the last vehicle they ever plan to purchase before they give up their keys.
Musk or others like him will rule the day long term. PU's are now just oversize cars and SUV's for the most part. The work trucks will be around for a long time but will be EV's more and more after 2030. Power grids in our region supports mostly all electric homes more and more. Wood heat is leaving fast if one wants homeowners insurance and if a bank is involved we want homeowners insurance.
There may be a lot of noise and false starts where EV's are concerned over the next 10 years but come 2030 no one will doubt they are already here to stay. I expect the lithium ion battery will be replaced by new technology by 2030 that we are not talking about today.
I know a guy that bought a new Ram 3500 diesel in 2011. In 2016 he traded it for a new four door Jeep (not the SUV type) then after 3 months traded it for a 2016 Rav4 then traded it for a 2017 Dodge Ram gas burner then traded it for a 2018 Ram 1500 with the six cylinder diesel and just traded it for a new Rav4. He said he could not reach to oil dipstick in the last Ram so he went back to a new Rav4. He drives 8K miles annually and 100 mile round trip is the max I think he as made 99.9% of the time since 2011. I stopped by yesterday when he was checking his oil which he does often. I never seen so much stuff under the hood of a 4 cylinder gas engine. The EV's take away that complexity now added to ICE's to reduce pollution so it is becoming clear the ICE's will become history even without the fines coming for car companies that keep producing them and that we will pay in the end.
My thoughts on the Tesla PU just revealed will not make it a winner or loser I expect.
