Real estate values are going absolutely crazy!

[orezok]

Double post

 

[orezok]

My house on 26 acres. The crash will be coming soon.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

I wouldn't go to the bank on a Zillow estimate... Notoriously unreliable and wrong.

 

[orezok]

Yeah both ways. A 1000SF homestead shack on 5 acres about a quarter mile down from me which was bought about 8 years ago for $53K just sold for $370K, investor cash sale. Zillow estimate was $250K so it does go both ways. I’m now surrounded on all 4 sides with AirB&B’s. Desert real estate has gone crazy in the last year. People want out of the city. Glad I got 26 acres.

 

[lman]

Must be some good farm ground.

 

[orezok]

Nope. With 5” of rain per average year, water district irrigation water is very expensive, private wells are 500’ deep and only get a couple of gallons per minute. The soil is so poor it’s even hard to grow weeds On top of that, this year winter rains were probably less than an inch. The good news is that I didn’t have to spray or hog. First time in 16 years.

My fruit trees yield, all irrigated will be about 20% of normal. Blossoms were normal but I haven’t seen a single bee. Think the drought, killed them. We also haven’t had our usual “fly season”

BUT I love the desert!

 

[dmccarty]

The house we used to own in the city has more than doubled in value in 15 years! It is in an area that has great demand for housing but this is a 45 year old house, that was put up fast when built, is not energy efficient, and is pretty small.

I have been looking at our local market and I have no real idea what our property is worth. What is very obvious, is that there is very little to NO inventory of homes and five acre lots. The time on market for homes is 30 days, compared to last year it was 60 day. We have a family member that will be selling a house in a fairly rural area, hours away from us, and the broker says that things are selling in 30 days or so.

Tis crazy.

In our area it is not a bubble, people are moving here, and have been for decades, but the pandemic, and I suppose changes in tax policy, has accelerated the movement of people.

Later,
Dan

 

[5030]

Just be patient, the bottom will fall out and those that overpaid will wind up in foreclosure. The housing bubble regularly breaks nd when it does, lots of people wind up holding an empty bag.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Just be patient, the bottom will fall out and those that overpaid will wind up in foreclosure. The housing bubble regularly breaks nd when it does, lots of people wind up holding an empty bag.

Your optimism is noteworthy.

 

[5030]

Your optimism is noteworthy.

Only a matter of time as it's not sustainable as it is today. The issue will be the people that bought inflated and are now on the hook and I wonder how many of them have ARM's instead of fixed rate mortgages.

I own a number of properties that I could sell, but won't I get bugged constantly to refinance. I ignore them all.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Only a matter of time as it's not sustainable as it is today. The issue will be the people that bought inflated and are now on the hook and I wonder how many of them have ARM's instead of fixed rate mortgages.

I own a number of properties that I could sell, but won't I get bugged constantly to refinance. I ignore them all.

From what I have seen / read, this buying frenzy is fueled from an available money supply, not necessarily by no money down mortgages. I do agree that these prices may not last and some will not have a chair when the music stops.

 

[Big Barn]

Here is a clipping from this mornings local paper. I posted it over in my retirement shop thread so my apologies for cross posting

and this is a typical example. NOT out of the norm

 

[JethroB]

From what I have seen / read, this buying frenzy is fueled from an available money supply, not necessarily by no money down mortgages. I do agree that these prices may not last and some will not have a chair when the music stops.

I can see it that way. A realtor friend said she has issues with home appraisals that will not support some selling prices thus the mortgages some want to take out. Sizable down payments are required. Hopefully the mortgage industry is showing some restraint this time around.

 

[Sigarms]

Our timing is bad. Boys still have 2 more years in high school and my 89 year old father is still living with us.

The only problem is when you sell, you generally have to buy.

That said, if it were just my wife and I right now at this moment in time, we'd probably sell and look for an adventure.

Way we figure it, with the square footage and land we own not so to far away from a decent size city with good hospitals, restaurants and shoping, we will get back at least what we put into the place, and when we bought the place with land, that was what I was hoping for to start with.

 

[ponytug]

Article in this morning's paper said that the local market was averaging eight days (!) between listing and escrow. There is not much inventory and mortgages are relatively inexpensive, which is true nationally.

All the best,

Peter

 

[buck12]

Our timing is bad. Boys still have 2 more years in high school and my 89 year old father is still living with us.

The only problem is when you sell, you generally have to buy.

That said, if it were just my wife and I right now at this moment in time, we'd probably sell and look for an adventure.

Way we figure it, with the square footage and land we own not so to far away from a decent size city with good hospitals, restaurants and shoping, we will get back at least what we put into the place, and when we bought the place with land, that was what I was hoping for to start with.

I am in a similar situation. We could sell our house and live in our cabin on our rural property until the bottom falls out. We could come out really good and likely buy in our neighborhood for half within a couple of years but we are both five minutes from work and my wife does not want to live in the middle of nowhere.

 

[coobie]

Repeat of 2007-2009 housing crash.Keep $$ on hand for good deals ..

 

[Sigarms]

Repeat of 2007-2009 housing crash.Keep $$ on hand for good deals ..

I'm guessing your point is not to buy now as there are no good deals to be found at this moment in time...

Right now, it's a sellers market...

 

[coobie]

I'm guessing your point is not to buy now as there are no good deals to be found at this moment in time...

Right now, it's a sellers market...

Yes sir, sellers market..Being a electric lineman (now retired after 39 years) I have seen many housing bubbles up & down.Been too many new construction sites in my career.Seen the good the bad and ugly of housing BOOMS.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Here is a clipping from this mornings local paper. I posted it over in my retirement shop thread so my apologies for cross posting


View attachment 697005


and this is a typical example. NOT out of the norm

OK, I did the math using your examples vs my property; my house - 3 times bigger, my land - 450 times more. Therefore, I have concluded... my property is worth north of 400 gadzillion dollars.

 

[Jstpssng]

OK, I did the math using your examples vs my property; my house - 3 times bigger, my land - 450 times more. Therefore, I have concluded... my property is worth north of 400 gadzillion dollars.

In that case... could I borrow a quarter of a gadzillion from my new best friend?

 

[lman]

I don't think I'll be moving to Victoria.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

In that case... could I borrow a quarter of a gadzillion from my new best friend?

You got it friend... just as soon as we close.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

I don't think I'll be moving to Victoria.

Do you think???? Me either...

 

[newbury]

But those prices in Victoria were probably in Canadian dollars!

We bought a small 3bed/1bath house on a 1/3 acre lot in Fulton, MS in 2009, primarily to store stuff in. Paid 25K, it was a foreclosure. But more important it is the house my wife grew up in. A "flipper" had bought it about 2007, partially redid it and got foreclosed on. It still needs probably 10K of work,
Zillow now values it at $80K. House next to it is at $173K

 

[TractorGuy]

Never thought it possible but the wife and I have talked about selling and moving to the Caribbean.

Might trade in all this equipment and land maintenance for a fishing boat.

 

[Wakey]

Never thought it possible but the wife and I have talked about selling and moving to the Caribbean.

Might trade in all this equipment and land maintenance for a fishing boat.

Ask around before doing that!

 

[MoKelly]

Your optimism is noteworthy.

Ha! Made me laugh on this Sunday evening! Too many unhappy folks.

MoKelly

 

[5030]

Lots will loose at musical chairs this time around. Only a matter of time now. Glad I'm not in that boat.

Only thing that bothers me is the current you don't have to pay your rent bs. So far I've been ok with my renters but who knows. I do know that if they don't pay, when it's done they will be evicted quickly and I'll get a deficiency judgement for the amount owed.

...and I'm nasty. Had a lot of years to perfect my nastiness.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Lots will loose at musical chairs this time around. Only a matter of time now. Glad I'm not in that boat.

Only thing that bothers me is the current you don't have to pay your rent bs. So far I've been ok with my renters but who knows. I do know that if they don't pay, when it's done they will be evicted quickly and I'll get a deficiency judgement for the amount owed.

...and I'm nasty. Had a lot of years to perfect my nastiness.

I believe you...

 

[coobie]

Lots will loose at musical chairs this time around. Only a matter of time now. Glad I'm not in that boat.

Only thing that bothers me is the current you don't have to pay your rent bs. So far I've been ok with my renters but who knows. I do know that if they don't pay, when it's done they will be evicted quickly and I'll get a deficiency judgement for the amount owed.

...and I'm nasty. Had a lot of years to perfect my nastiness.

Maybe you need to drive over to morenci mi and hit the weed store and chill out.

 

[Username Taken]

What's driving this market is, 1) extra Available money, 2) Extremely low interest, 3) People sick, tired and disgusted with living in dirty, stinking, filthy Cities where the politicians they elect won't protect them, won't educate their children (something they pay dearly for in the form of property taxes), won't help provide jobs and are generally utterly and completely worse than worthless, 4) People are working from home now so they don't need to put yp with crooked, corrupt, lying, thieving, disgusting political machines as nother in 3 that do nothing but tax them half to death. And lie. And steal. Votes especially.

So now, people are voting with their feet. The politicians can't rig that kind of vote.

 

[Username Taken]

Maybe you need to drive over to morenci mi and hit the weed store and chill out.

There's a whole field of hemp just down the road from my farm on the way to Lansing. I'd estimate it's just over 5 acres. Hard to tell.

I would think that the size of the plot you have is regulated like the old tobacco plots used to be.

I was gonna look into maybe planting a couple acres. Maybe next year. Maybe not.

 

[YanmarFever]

We sold our home in Oregon on 20 acres and we got a great price on it, we had quite a few offers, then a realtor bought it!
There is definitely a shortage of houses at the moment, people want out of the cities and move out to the country at all costs.

 

[5030]

All bubbles bust Ernie. Just be patient. Economies are all cyclical, much like elected officials.

I strongly suspect that there will be a whole lot of home buyers holding the bag (with nothing in it) shortly.

With elected officials, they all 'promise' something new and improved when in reality it's just a rehash of the same old, same old...

 

[YanmarFever]

I hear ya and I will be ready to invest when the SHTF on new real state.

 

[Username Taken]

I agree that this bubble is gonna burst. Especially because it's based on -- Nothing. Just cheap and easy money. Nothing. No reforms, no expansion of real jobs, like in the manufacturing sector no deregulation, no bringing manufacturing home..... Nothing. Just a bit of childish glee about restrictions on International thieves like China being relaxed.

And the worst part is, companies are still moving overseas as fast as, faster than, actually, ever.

I called it last time. I even specified the CRA (community reinvestment act) would be the lit fuse that caused it all. Building, buying, speculating based on -- Nothing.

The worst part is, since we're an 'innovation-based' economy, certain elements in our useless goobermint have reduced policing of intellectual property being stolen by the Chinese (is that racist? never know these days when some SJW will invent a reason to call someone pointing out the truth a racist. It's kind of a catch-all word for idiots with low IQ's who can't make a point. whatev). They're 'in your face' about it. They just don't care if we know they're doing it. They couldn't care less. At all

And when the 'Fed' clamps down, which they will eventually have to, watch it all crash and burn.

Problem is for me, trying to time the market which, I know, is a fool's errand but right now, it's kicking butt and I'm not going to get out until I have to. Hope it's not too late by then.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Repeat of 2007-2009 housing crash.Keep $$ on hand for good deals ..

We have no idea what will happen. The Fed's loose money policy has put us into unknown financial territory. Dump trillions of dollars into the economy, and the price of everything will go up. What is actually happening is the price of the dollar is going down.

I had a discussion last month about a Jersey cow. In 1955, we separated the cream and sold the butterfat to a local creamery. That one cow produced $600 worth of cream in one year. I was curious how much that would be in today's dollars, so I plugged it into an inflation calculator. It turns out that $600 in 1955 was worth $6000 in today's money, and that was with a consistently conservative fiscal policy.

If the dollar can lose 90% of its value since I was a kid, it can lose 90% of its value in the term of a 30 year mortgage. Maybe the market will tank and good deals will appear, or maybe the fiscal death spiral will continue and holding dollars will be the wrong move. Your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

But those prices in Victoria were probably in Canadian dollars!

We bought a small 3bed/1bath house on a 1/3 acre lot in Fulton, MS in 2009, primarily to store stuff in. Paid 25K, it was a foreclosure. But more important it is the house my wife grew up in. A "flipper" had bought it about 2007, partially redid it and got foreclosed on. It still needs probably 10K of work,
Zillow now values it at $80K. House next to it is at $173K

You could have made a 14% return just by moving your US dollars into Canadian dollars a year ago.

 

[Username Taken]

We have no idea what will happen. The Fed's loose money policy has put us into unknown financial territory. Dump trillions of dollars into the economy, and the price of everything will go up. What is actually happening is the price of the dollar is going down.

I had a discussion last month about a Jersey cow. In 1955, we separated the cream and sold the butterfat to a local creamery. That one cow produced $600 worth of cream in one year. I was curious how much that would be in today's dollars, so I plugged it into an inflation calculator. It turns out that $600 in 1955 was worth $6000 in today's money, and that was with a consistently conservative fiscal policy.

If the dollar can lose 90% of its value since I was a kid, it can lose 90% of its value in the term of a 30 year mortgage. Maybe the market will tank and good deals will appear, or maybe the fiscal death spiral will continue and holding dollars will be the wrong move. Your guess is as good as mine.

Not to be a weenie, but the average household income in 1955 was around $5k a year. Today it's over $78k a year.

But back then, the woman of the house didn't have to get up every morning, get the kids ready for work, make breakfast for everybody, make sure her husband actually put his clothes on right (if at all), get herself ready for work drive there for a half-hour, spend between 9 and 12 hours there and drive home. Very often leaving the house when it was dark and getting home when it was dark. Then clean the house or, at leaat tidy it up if she's lucky enough to afford a house cleaner once a Month. She gets to do the clothes too and make sure she picks up all their snowflakes from some absurd charter school (that's about as useless as a screen door on a submarine) do the clothes, the dishes..... And don't get me started on all the 'sports' leagues for chilluns. disturbing

The problem is, we all want nice things. We want to bring our children up somewhere safe, somewhere that doesn't have shootings ever week, somewhere that doesn't have a drug pusher on every street corner and predators in the park. You'd think that people would have enough sense to vote the scumbags that allow that to happen out of office but, they don't. I know why but it will offend too many people; because the truth always does

So what they do is what people have always done when faced with extreme adversity -- They run.

To the 'burbs, to the near-country. And that costs money. Lots of money. So mama usually pays the price. So does Dad and so do the kids because the woman, who makes the family work, isn't around enough.

It is what it is. It won't change in my lifetime and probably not in the lifetime of anybody that's in here.

 

[MoKelly]

If the dollar can lose 90% of its value since I was a kid, it can lose 90% of its value in the term of a 30 year mortgage. Maybe the market will tank and good deals will appear, or maybe the fiscal death spiral will continue and holding dollars will be the wrong move. Your guess is as good as mine.

If you expect rapid inflation, the best thing you can have is a low fixed interest mortgage.

Paying back the mortgage with inflation ravished money. Interest rates will soar. You will be able to earn 10%+ on CD’s and pay a 2.5% mortgage and make lots of money. Those that paid off the mortgage in a high inflation economy lose.

MoKelly

 

[3gunr]

Not to be a weenie, but the average household income in 1955 was around $5k a year. Today it's over $78k a year.

But back then, the woman of the house didn't have to get up every morning, get the kids ready for work, make breakfast for everybody, make sure her husband actually put his clothes on right (if at all), get herself ready for work drive there for a half-hour, spend between 9 and 12 hours there and drive home. Very often leaving the house when it was dark and getting home when it was dark. Then clean the house or, at leaat tidy it up if she's lucky enough to afford a house cleaner once a Month. She gets to do the clothes too and make sure she picks up all their snowflakes from some absurd charter school (that's about as useless as a screen door on a submarine) do the clothes, the dishes..... And don't get me started on all the 'sports' leagues for chilluns. disturbing

The problem is, we all want nice things. We want to bring our children up somewhere safe, somewhere that doesn't have shootings ever week, somewhere that doesn't have a drug pusher on every street corner and predators in the park. You'd think that people would have enough sense to vote the scumbags that allow that to happen out of office but, they don't. I know why but it will offend too many people; because the truth always does

So what they do is what people have always done when faced with extreme adversity -- They run.

To the 'burbs, to the near-country. And that costs money. Lots of money. So mama usually pays the price. So does Dad and so do the kids because the woman, who makes the family work, isn't around enough.

It is what it is. It won't change in my lifetime and probably not in the lifetime of anybody that's in here.

I agree, I live in the middle of what was a family farm , It has now been all sold of and the ten acre corn feild in front of my house and the adjasent 40 acres of woods is now destroyed and is soon to be homes for the scads of people leaving st louis because of the garbage running it. I would sell and move to my farm , but wife wont leave the grandkids yet.

 

[Username Taken]

I agree, I live in the middle of what was a family farm , It has now been all sold of and the ten acre corn feild in front of my house and the adjasent 40 acres of woods is now destroyed and is soon to be homes for the scads of people leaving st louis because of the garbage running it. I would sell and move to my farm , but wife wont leave the grandkids yet.

She never will. None of them will.

I'm moving, with or without my wife of 44 years. (she'll come with me no matter what)

Just the way it's gonna be.

I'm a SOB if I'm gonna sit around and waste away while the girls are happiy spoiling their special little snowflakes. Done it long enough and now, it's my turn.

Everybody's situation is different. Way different. I've been planning this move for a over ten years. It's time. One way or the other, I'm getting my little hobby farm or house in the country.

But it sounds to me you got it better than I do. By a long shot.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Not to be a weenie, but the average household income in 1955 was around $5k a year. Today it's over $78k a year.

But back then, the woman of the house didn't have to get up every morning, get the kids ready for work, make breakfast for everybody, make sure her husband actually put his clothes on right (if at all), get herself ready for work drive there for a half-hour, spend between 9 and 12 hours there and drive home. Very often leaving the house when it was dark and getting home when it was dark. Then clean the house or, at leaat tidy it up if she's lucky enough to afford a house cleaner once a Month. She gets to do the clothes too and make sure she picks up all their snowflakes from some absurd charter school (that's about as useless as a screen door on a submarine) do the clothes, the dishes..... And don't get me started on all the 'sports' leagues for chilluns. disturbing

The problem is, we all want nice things. We want to bring our children up somewhere safe, somewhere that doesn't have shootings ever week, somewhere that doesn't have a drug pusher on every street corner and predators in the park. You'd think that people would have enough sense to vote the scumbags that allow that to happen out of office but, they don't. I know why but it will offend too many people; because the truth always does

So what they do is what people have always done when faced with extreme adversity -- They run.

To the 'burbs, to the near-country. And that costs money. Lots of money. So mama usually pays the price. So does Dad and so do the kids because the woman, who makes the family work, isn't around enough.

It is what it is. It won't change in my lifetime and probably not in the lifetime of anybody that's in here.

If you think life was so easy back then, you weren't around. There was a little thing called "home economics," which meant the woman contributed about half the income to a family, she just did it at home. In 1955, groceries were 30% of the household budget, and they didn't show up pre-cooked and pre-packaged. Socks with a hole in the toe got darned, kid's jeans got patched, canning and preserving ate every spare minute in the summer, and lots of clothing was home made. Wash day was a real day spent doing laundry. Now it takes maybe 15 minutes to do a load of laundry, and 10 minutes to load and empty the dishwasher. Then, as now, a successful family required two working adults. The change is that housework became so trivial it has little value any more.

The current lack of safety is an illusion promoted by people who want to control you by keeping you in fear. The crime rate is 40% of the crime rate in 1955. Cars are safer. Medicine is safer. I had two friends die of polio, and one of scarlet fever, before I was 10 years old. Kids don't even get measles, mumps, or chicken pox any more.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

If you expect rapid inflation, the best thing you can have is a low fixed interest mortgage.

Paying back the mortgage with inflation ravished money. Interest rates will soar. You will be able to earn 10%+ on CD’s and pay a 2.5% mortgage and make lots of money. Those that paid off the mortgage in a high inflation economy lose.

MoKelly

If we end with 10% CDs it means inflation is 12%. Deduct the 2.5% interest and your CD is only losing 4.5% a year.

 

[Username Taken]

If you think life was so easy back then, you weren't around. There was a little thing called "home economics," which meant the woman contributed about half the income to a family, she just did it at home. In 1955, groceries were 30% of the household budget, and they didn't show up pre-cooked and pre-packaged. Socks with a hole in the toe got darned, kid's jeans got patched, canning and preserving ate every spare minute in the summer, and lots of clothing was home made. Wash day was a real day spent doing laundry. Now it takes maybe 15 minutes to do a load of laundry, and 10 minutes to load and empty the dishwasher. Then, as now, a successful family required two working adults. The change is that housework became so trivial it has little value any more.

The current lack of safety is an illusion promoted by people who want to control you by keeping you in fear. The crime rate is 40% of the crime rate in 1955. Cars are safer. Medicine is safer. I had two friends die of polio, and one of scarlet fever, before I was 10 years old. Kids don't even get measles, mumps, or chicken pox any more.

Why do posters always want to erect a strawman when replying to someone else? I don't get it.

I didn't say life was 'easy'. I said it was different, much different, than today.

I was 8 years old in 1955 so I remember quite a bit. I remember my cousin dying of meningitis, I remember one of my classmates with crippling polio, I remember my mother having difficulty with her change of life in the 1960's. Doctors would just wink and say, Female problem'.

Life was very difficult in those days. Did you not notice the income comparisons I posted? How the cow..... Nevermind.

My boy lost two friends to drugs in the last five years. And these were kids from good families. One's dad was a Doctor (dentist, actually), the other's Mother was a College perfesser. How many died of drug overdoses in 1955? How many drive-by killings were there? Then there's the AIDS epidemic that spread into normal America. Things were just different. Better and worse at the same time.

And no, crime wasn't worse back then. That's just you making stuff up. It's an absurdity to say that. https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
About the only thing that makes the crime rate look bearable these days is the FACT that most crimes aren't even reported. Especially in the big Cities.

 

[bill9068]

I’ve got a log home on 60 acres I bought 20 years ago as a hunting cabin. Wonder what’s it’s worth now. It’s only an hour away from home and my wife and I stay there once a week just to keep it up.

 

[Username Taken]

I'm jealous

 

[Alien]

Our friends own a Real Estate and they can't get enough homes to sell. They are on the market one day and gone the next.
Our place is worth Big $s as it has its' own bore water supply which is rare here. We paid $200,000 for 40+ acres and it is worth more than double that now. Not thinking of selling as we wouldn't be able to find another smaller acreage with potable water.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Some say the housing bubble is inflating due to inflation.