Y'all Been Checkin' Lumber Prices?

[MoKelly]

5.4% inflation from June 2021. A country just dosen't put that genie back in the bottle in a way that does not cause ripple effects. The cheap money is like a drug and the dealer has not idea how to wean the addict off their product.

Sometimes this bitcoin concept of not tying value to central banks policy is very appealing.

Yep. Inflation coupled with shortages and a lack of workforce due to handouts is a bad situation.

MoKelly

 

[lman]

Yep. Inflation coupled with shortages and a lack of workforce due to handouts is a bad situation.

MoKelly

And it sounds like they're going to continue to print money to pass out to people that don't want to work. That's a recipe for continuing inflation.

 

[Diggin It]

LUMBERCommodity $600.00 -85.00 -12.41% 03:18:00 PM

52 week low and below what it was when this thread was started.

Not seeing it in store prices yet though.

 

[MoKelly]

LUMBERCommodity $600.00 -85.00 -12.41% 03:18:00 PM

52 week low and below what it was when this thread was started.

Not seeing it in store prices yet though.

Interesting. Are these commodity markets simply trading paper or are they committed to future deliveries at the states prices? How far out are the futures contracts?

It doesn’t seem sustainable to be buying at 52 week lows and selling at 52 week highs?

MoKelly

 

[Jstpssng]

What The Rise And Fall Of Lumber Prices Tell Us About The Pandemic Economy

Lumber prices soared during the pandemic, sparking inflation fears. Just as quickly, prices then dropped, but that's not the end of the story.

www.npr.org

 

[MoKelly]

What The Rise And Fall Of Lumber Prices Tell Us About The Pandemic Economy

Lumber prices soared during the pandemic, sparking inflation fears. Just as quickly, prices then dropped, but that's not the end of the story.

www.npr.org

Have you seen meaningfully lower lumber prices in your area? I have not in my area.

Hopefully, it’s coming.

MoKelly

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Interesting. Are these commodity markets simply trading paper or are they committed to future deliveries at the states prices? How far out are the futures contracts?

It doesn’t seem sustainable to be buying at 52 week lows and selling at 52 week highs?

MoKelly

They very much are committed to future deliveries. The contracts are between people who have a known future need for lumber -- homebuilders mostly -- and people who have a known future production of lumber -- mills.

Contracts go out every two months for a year. So right now you can buy lumber for delivery in July 2021, September '21, November '21, January '22, March '22, May '22 and July '22.

Current prices are at: LB00 | Random Length Lumber Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

 

[MoKelly]

They very much are committed to future deliveries. The contracts are between people who have a known future need for lumber -- homebuilders mostly -- and people who have a known future production of lumber -- mills.

Contracts go out every two months for a year. So right now you can buy lumber for delivery in July 2021, September '21, November '21, January '22, March '22, May '22 and July '22.

Current prices are at: LB00 | Random Length Lumber Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

Thanks. I guess the big retailers also use futures rather than buying spot.
MoKelly

 

[bcp]

Some prices here have dropped from triple "normal" to double "normal."

Bruce

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Thanks. I guess the big retailers also use futures rather than buying spot.
MoKelly

Stores like Home Depot and Lowes mostly sell from inventory and can adjust prices based on what they paid. Lumber yards who deal with builders have to guarantee prices out into the future and I could see them wanting to lock in prices using futures.