Went shopping yesterday and did a lot more thinking. First the thinking. I was told by two different dealers yesterday that typical round bales in my area are 800lbs, which means I don't need nearly as much loader lift as I thought (for 1200lb bales). I would definitely want a big safety margin, but it seems like 1500lbs lift (@19.7" forward) would be enough. Second, I am really questioning if round bales will ever make sense for us, especially if we increase our pasture acreage so we only need to feed hay for 2-4 months a year instead of 5-6. Lastly, I'm taking the comments here about too big a tractor being unnecessary hp and damaging my lawn. Still no intent to use it for finish mowing, but I don't need a beast just for show.
Now the shopping. I went to the nearest Kioti dealer, about 35 miles away. Long drive compared to other brands. The dealer seemed pretty good and had in stock a DK55 and DK35, both showing a lot of aging from being outside on the lot. I drove both, and they both seemed like really good, solid tractors. A few glitches - the FEL lift wasn't working on the DK55, and the 3ph hydraulics weren't working on either one - probably just weren't turned on, but the salesman didn't know what the issue or control was. Apart from those glitches, they seemed good. Then we went in and I got prices on a DK40, which would be on the low end of what I have been looking at. With a FEL and quick attach, and a gear transmission, the quote was around $24,500...which seems a couple k$ higher than what I would pay for similar from another brand (e.g. L4400 @$20.4k w/o quick attach). That plus the distance to the dealer pretty much knocks Kioti off my list. I'm still impressed with the quality though, so if someone has a dealer closer by I would recommend you take a look.
Then I went back to my nearby Kubota/NH dealer which has been so helpful. I chatted with the guy and asked to drive the NH TC45DA, since I hadn't driven any NH's before and thought I should compare. They only had HST in stock, so that's what I drove. I was actually fairly impressed with it, especially for the ergonomics and visibility from the seat. I'm also rethinking my anti-hydro bias, as I can see how it would be really convenient for loader work and tight maneuvering. I did a lot of backing, tight turning, etc. to get a feel for working around obstacles and I found it very easy to use. I'm also wondering if use of a shuttle shift for our work would wear the clutch fast, and no point saving money up front if I'm just replacing a clutch every 2-3 years instead. Then I drove the L5030, also HST, and was reasonably impressed with that also (he is eager to clear this one out, I think). The Kubota HST is definitely smoother to accelerate than the NH (or JD on the 4310) but I really don't like how HST and brake pedals are on the same side, so you can't use both at once. The NH has them on different sides so I can make a definite stop when I want to, vs. relying on the HST slowing me down. I also prefer the two separate pedals you get on a NH, though that's not as big a deal for me. The NH has a lot more plastic, but since everyone but Kubota is using plastic fenders (I noticed that Kioti does, even though their tractors otherwise look like Kubota clones) I'm not sure that's so bad. I also don't like the PTO control location on the L30, and I wonder why the L30 HST has a clutch when NH and JD HST tractors don't. I got prices on both, and including current rebates both would $24,600 (one is $35 more, I think). That's about the same I would pay for a "real utility", but again I'm rethinking that HST might make sense. Between the TC45 and L5030, for the same price the L5030 has more FEL lift, more 3ph lift, and 5 more hp... but the ergonomics of the TC45 might actually swing me toward it.
I'm debating whether to look at JD again. I appreciate the post on the 5105 but at least for now I've backed away from that size for any brand. I am debating whether I would take a JD 4120 at the same price as NH or Kubota. My quote of 25k on the 4120 was for gear so I assume hydro will be $1000 or more extra, just to compare apples to apples. I also think I would want a 4320 if I went hydro, which would be something like $1800 more again. May need to call a different dealer for price comparison. Not trying to parallel the "Why is green paint so expensive" forum but around here it does seem to be.