Are tractor prices dropping, have they peaked?

[Reddogs]

I looks like the prices for gas, diesel, used cars, and other commodities have peaked from the tremendous surge of the last year..

Used car prices are starting to decline

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a gauge of wholesale market prices for used vehicles, dropped for its second straight month.

www.axios.com

Gas Prices Drop Two Weeks in a Row, and Now E15 Gas Will Be Allowed over Summer

E15 gasoline with ethanol will be allowed to be sold over the summer in a break from the usual. That could lead to further declines in the cost of filling up your vehicle, but consumers are still restless.

www.caranddriver.com

https://www.fleetowner.com/news/article/21236802/diesel-prices-ease-a-bit-but-remain-high

But has anyone seen the tractor prices easing up, have they peaked and beginning to go down or at least level off.

 

[Joe2399]

I suspect we'll see the inflation rate go down starting about now, but that doesn't mean prices will go down. Will just go up slower, or level off for a bit before going up again. The only scenario in which prices meaningfully go down for a while, I think, is a nasty recession/depression (2008/09 or worse)....which is possible, but I think probably somewhat low probability.

 

[Reddogs]

I suspect we'll see the inflation rate go down starting about now, but that doesn't mean prices will go down. Will just go up slower, or level off for a bit before going up again. The only scenario in which prices meaningfully go down for a while, I think, is a nasty recession/depression (2008/09 or worse)....which is possible, but I think probably somewhat low probability.

It looks like that is already happening with all the effects of inflation and turmoil in the markets and the FEDs trying to contain it... Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say

 

[Snobdds]

We'll see prices continue to raise, were just starting into summer demand.

The PPI just rose to it's highest rate ever, 11.1%.

The fed caused this with the printing presses. They were late to try and contain this. THey did a measly 1/4 point increase.

We have a ways to go yet.

 

[EddieWalker]

As long as the Government is blocking the supply chain, inflation will continue. Everything that I'm seeing is a blame game from them that ignores what's causing inflation. Until they are willing to identify the actual cause of inflation, it will only get worse.

 

[Oaktree]

I looks like the prices for gas, diesel, used cars, and other commodities have peaked from the tremendous surge of the last year..


But has anyone seen the tractor prices easing up, have they peaked and beginning to go down or at least level off.

Not in the market for a new tractor, so I haven't been paying attention to what they're going for these days.

Gas prices are down a little, saw one station today at $3.99. Don't see used vehicle prices coming down anytime soon, not until availability of new ones improves. In fact I wouldn't be surprised for used prices to keep climbing, even on less desirable ones...not many coming into the pipeline.

 

[Joe2399]

There are also long term structural/demographic effects that are likely to keep inflation high this decade. Specifically millennials forming households (finally). I guess the pandemic created some urgency to get out of cities and whatnot, plus new ability for many to work remotely, means a huge demographic (there are more millennials than boomers) finally buying houses/land, creating demand for real estate, and durable goods...like tractors. This will all have its ups and downs, but overall is probably a decade-long trend.

 

[2manyrocks]

Two Kubota dealers told me there was going to be a 4% price increase effective 4/1/22. I assume they were telling me the truth.

The Fed has been injecting so much liquidity into the financial system for so long that we're seeing the consequences.

 

[Snobdds]

There are also long term structural/demographic effects that are likely to keep inflation high this decade. Specifically millennials forming households (finally). I guess the pandemic created some urgency to get out of cities and whatnot, plus new ability for many to work remotely, means a huge demographic (there are more millennials than boomers) finally buying houses/land, creating demand for real estate, and durable goods...like tractors. This will all have its ups and downs, but overall is probably a decade-long trend.

Boomers have a lot of second homes and they are not selling. Once they die and the heirs unload the second homes and the primary homes...the crash in home prices will be spectacular.

 

[WADFL]

Boomers have a lot of second homes and they are not selling. Once they die and the heirs unload the second homes and the primary homes...the crash in home prices will be spectacular.

Wish you were correct but I doubt it. Certain political types are in favor of importing enough people to take up the slack (and future voters?) Combine that with the cyclical underbuilding that has gone on the past 10 years, and I just don't see the basis for a major housing crash.