Material costs rising- what would you buy now to hedge inflation

[jaxs]

Oh, yeah good point, Snobdds. The money savings comes about because anyone can have these old interiors complete for free or more likely the cost of hauling it. Kitchens are just an example because they are a concentrated part of the cost of building.

The point is that everyday complete appliances in a house - including kitchen and cabinets - are being torn out by remodelers and destined to be junked. Everything works fine - these are high dollar houses he is doing - but it is being thrown away to replace it with the latest .

rScotty

Eeeew,have you took into account what friends,neighbors and coworkers might say about putting used appliances and cabinets in the house? Now if one finds something called trendy,retro, Art Deco,vintage or antique "AND" pays handsomely for,that's totally different. People are judged by their house,car,clothes and who they know. BTDT and I know.

 

[PuffyC]

if you want/can afford to do it now, do it now. If you want to wait and see, wait and see. It may go up, it may go down, it may stay the same. One thing is for sure is that time will tell!!

I'll second that, I've wasted a ton of money trying to outsmart the future. When the people who do it for a living can't get it right why would I think I could?

 

[rScotty]

Eeeew,have you took into account what friends,neighbors and coworkers might say about putting used appliances and cabinets in the house? Now if one finds something called trendy,retro, Art Deco,vintage or antique "AND" pays handsomely for,that's totally different. People are judged by their house,car,clothes and who they know. BTDT and I know.

BTDT too. So I know that's important to some people. I wouldn't call them friends.
I think that viewpoint is a bit dumb, but then I think that deliberately amassing huge debt instead of huge assets is dumb too - so being wrong about the one may well make me wrong about the other.

Realistically, after you do a normal clean and refinish how would those acquaintences know? Do you know how much they paid for their Bosch refrigerator? I don't..... Ever looked under the tablecloth?

Some of our house - including the kitchen cabinets - used to be trees in a previous existance. But whatever they were before hasn't really changed their current use as cabinets, framing, and flooring. At least not that I've noticed.
rScotty

 

[Root Cause]

Eeeew,have you took into account what friends,neighbors and coworkers might say about putting used appliances and cabinets in the house? Now if one finds something called trendy,retro, Art Deco,vintage or antique "AND" pays handsomely for,that's totally different. People are judged by their house,car,clothes and who they know. BTDT and I know.

This post was a request to see if someone felt that buying a specific material to build a house now made sense as opposed to waiting 6-12 months.
I could care less about being judged by what I own. Maybe a new thread for that on the front porch.

 

[rScotty]

Good luck with your project.
rScotty

 

[Root Cause]

Good luck with your project.
rScotty

I do appreciate your thoughts on saving money. That is what I am trying to do and you have given me some ideas as have others. Thanks.
-

 

[jyoutz]

Mortgage rates went to 5% recently and timber stumpage appraisals have taken a corresponding decrease. Lumber prices will be coming down, but how long it takes for lower stumpage prices to affect the retail lumber market is unknown. There is still the factor of fuel and labor costs affecting prices.

 

[ultrarunner]

Supply Chain wise the ability to move material continues to be a problem...

 

[RSR]

It seems to me the very nature of the OP's post (anxiety about rising prices and therefore a desire to get in quickly before prices rise even further) is an almost textbook definition of the prevalent attitudes that drive bubble markets. This is clearly a common sentiment that can be observed in the public for a variety of goods: housing, energy costs, automobiles, etc. We are seeing the exact same arguments for why you need to get into the housing market NOW as we did back in 2005/2006'ish.

My interpretation is that if you find yourself making decisions based on worrying about missing out on future opportunities due to rising prices (whether in goods or investment opportunities), it's probably a pretty good indicator that you might be getting caught up in bubble market mentality

A reasoned, well thought out, detached assessment of the situation may be what is most helpful before making any decisions.

Personally, my worst financial decisions have come from feeling rushed, panicked, and worried, and trying to outsmart the market. My best ones have come when I recognize those feelings and decide to wait to make a decision until I feel I am in a more stable environment and can feel clarity about the situation.

 

[drumminj]

My interpretation is that if you find yourself making decisions based on worrying about missing out on future opportunities due to rising prices (whether in goods or investment opportunities), it's probably a pretty good indicator that you might be getting caught up in bubble market mentality

A reasoned, well thought out, detached assessment of the situation may be what is most helpful before making any decisions.

Personally, my worst financial decisions have come from feeling rushed, panicked, and worried, and trying to outsmart the market. My best ones have come when I recognize those feelings and decide to wait to make a decision until I feel I am in a more stable environment and can feel clarity about the situation.

While I agree with what you say above, unfortunately such "bubble markets" can last many years. Look at the current run in housing prices -- one could easily have said/felt the same thing several years ago (honestly I did 2 years ago where I previously lived) and yet it's still going.

That's a long time for someone to wait with no guarantee of what the final outcome will be. Personally, my family has made the decision to move forward with life vs put it on hold for even longer. But it does leave us playing the game you describe above -- purchasing some things when we can/before prices go up even more, and hoping we don't totally screw ourselves by locking in today's prices.

Unfortunately, one cannot rely on market fundamentals and analysis anymore for making such decisions, as the government (and fed) intervene and fight those forces at random times.