Buying Advice US/$ at its highest level in twenty years

[Rdrcr]

Well, that's a good question asking, "how really intelligent people fall for that crap". I wondered that myself at one time.

But having lived in two worlds, I have to correct something: It's not intelligent vs not intelligent. Education is less like something inborn and more like something you either do or don't do - like buying a tractor, or becoming a pro at playing one particular sport.

I know this because I was raised in a an old fashioned area in Arkansas as a worker & handyman mechanic - and did that for 25 years as an adult - and didn't finish HS until my mid 40s. College came later - when we could afford it. So for a ong time I saw the world mostly in terms of rich people & especially the government trying to either take advantage or fool me or forcing me to do things I didn't want to do.

The difference in how I look at the world now 25 years after college is different. It was a slow change, much like the change that happens when we go from being a baby to an adult. Somehow, while we are growing up from being a child everything that used to be done for us becomes something that we now have to do for ourself. Education is like that.

Now I don't feel like the world is forcing or fooling me. I still know it will take advantage if it can. But the feeling I have toward the world is more like looking over my pasture and figuring out what changes it needs to make it work better.

So I got lucky & accidently got to see both sides. Hope this helps.
rScotty

I would like to recommend ‘Apocalypse Never’ by Michael Schellenberger…definitely worth a read.

Education should never end, regardless of age.

Mike

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Education is less like something inborn and more like something you either do or don't do - like buying a tractor, or becoming a pro at playing one particular sport.

This is true and I agree with this.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

not true...they raised the price on gas using the crude they purchased at lower price. they didnt wait one second.

Not true. The price floats with the market. The price today for unleaded futures is $3.676 a gallon and add $0.16-20 for distribution and retail markup, plus your local and state taxes and there is your price at the pump.

 

[NoTrespassing]

Not true. The price floats with the market. The price today for unleaded futures is $3.676 a gallon and add $0.16-20 for distribution and retail markup, plus your local and state taxes and there is your price at the pump.

I always enjoy your posts on economic subjects. I think the chances we go into recession are very high now and the question is how deep and long it will be. Can I ask your opinion on the likelihood we are in recession now or will be soon? If so what will be the severity? Powell and Yellen seem to be in denial imo.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Not true. The price floats with the market. The price today for unleaded futures is $3.676 a gallon and add $0.16-20 for distribution and retail markup, plus your local and state taxes and there is your price at the pump.

What you're saying is true but current energy policies are what the problem is right now.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

What you're saying is true but current energy policies are what the problem is right now.

Trust me, the line three pipeline goes through my neighborhood and we all facepalmed when it was canceled since it largely follows the existing, ancient, used-long-past-its-designed-usable-life, leak-prone, pipeline whose replacement was also fueling a pile of high-paying, skilled jobs locally. The day this administration killed the pipeline, was the same day energy traders started jacking up futures contracts. As I shared back in February:

Elsewhere it was pointed out that if our current Administration was guilty for the rise in energy prices, how is it that energy prices are also higher around the world?

Good question.

Domestic demand for energy was increasing as we rolled out of the global shutdown—but due to our ability to meet domestic base demand, neither the Russian or the Middle-Eastern oil producers were able to constrain supply because if they did so, they'd give up market share to USA based producers—a thing they dread. On the first day of office, the new Administration placed constraints on the expansion of US energy production and futures traders began bidding up energy prices on the expectation of future supply constraints.

Most supply constraints in energy are caused or manufactured by geopolitical fall-out. For example, piracy issues around Yeman, shutting down the expansion of energy production or distribution, or Russia parking 100,000 troops along the Ukraine border are, from a trader's perspective, ways to make the number one product of Russia and Middle Eastern producers sky-rocket in value and are well worth the cost of funding.

If the USA maintained the ability to keep up with base supply, then as a third global producer, prices of energy would fluctuate with fewer extremes and those fluctuations would be slower, and our domestic inflation wouldn't be nearly as high. As it is, food prices are going to continue to scream higher because Farmers have already paid two to three times for their input costs in the Fall of 2021 as they did in prior years.

Brace Yourself.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

I always enjoy your posts on economic subjects. I think the chances we go into recession are very high now and the question is how deep and long it will be. Can I ask your opinion on the likelihood we are in recession now or will be soon? If so what will be the severity? Powell and Yellen seem to be in denial imo.

The old joke is that traders have predicted six of the last two recessions. As long as employment remains strong and wages keep up with inflation, we can continue to ride this out. Back in the Great Recession, 70% of our discretionary spending was through the top 40% of earners, who, for the most part were not effected by the recession. Sadly, recessions destroy both those who are just entering the workforce, as well as the working poor from joining the middle-class through earnings and.. here comes a friend up my driveway....

 

[5030]

food prices are going to continue to scream higher because Farmers have already paid two to three times for their input costs in the Fall of 2021 as they did in prior years.

You pegged that right on the bean. My inputs have tripled on average since last spring and the naieve consumer hasn't a clue what is going to go down. I do and so do you, obviously. Why the freezers are full, my propane tanks are at 85% and our farm garden will be large this year and everything I'm planting in it can be stored or frozen. This is gonna be a very ugly 2022, fuel costs aside.

 

[ultrarunner]

I can see the truth in that. I don't much like it, but I can't pretend I don't see it.

To give credit where it is due, part of our society - mostly our kids - have been forecasting energy-related problems for a couple of decades now. They've been passionate & vocal without generating much real interest from the rest of us. Mostly we didn't believe the forecasts, and when we did we only made half-hearted attempts at solving the problems.

Steeply rising prices has finally gotten our attention - not enough of our attention yet so that we will actually get down and change things, but we may be headed in that direction.

rScotty

Well... much of Europe is scrambling to set up wood heat... can't even buy an old stove as no need to advertise...

Trees or should I say seasoned firewood is up and you almost have to know someone... same for pellets.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

The US has NEVER avoided a recession with employment and inflation at these levels.

Never.

It has always followed within 24 months. If you think this current administration, that still wants to pump more $$ into an overheated economy, will avoid the inevitable by way of genius monetary policy... I think you are high.

I will likely benefit from a recession... but most will not. Many of those, voted for this administration and its policies.