Global Warming?

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   / Global Warming? #801  
OK Pat, there is several questions you have ignored.
1) If the earth is in as dire dire outlook as you imply why is the NO DATA to back it up. 30 years is a long time to research and have little to show for it.
2) If Man's impact is say 1/3 of total warming or less, and China and India don't change their ways what impact can the US have?
3) How many factors are there that affect the temp of the earth. How many of those can we control? Where are the articles on DOE (design of experiments) finding which of those factors are significant?
4) If we really are at the highest CO2 levels ever as Short Game claims, why isn't the global temp. at the highest ever?
There is a lot of conflicting opinions by qualified scientists out the public domain. Kinda reminds me of medical research where the first blush reaction is different than when the data is fully analyzed.
 
   / Global Warming? #802  
I previously posted, I thought the source of all similar looking announcements.

It is ScienceDaily. You can subscribe and receive daily blurbs of the latest stuff on many many topics. I try to only post here what is either germane or sure to hit Rob's hot button. See our previous recent exchange.

Science Daily: News & Articles in Science, Health, Environment & Technology


The evolution/meat thing is here:

Meat eating behind evolutionary success of humankind, global population spread, study suggests

This free service provides a daily dose of the latest things across most of the scientific publishing spectrum. Then if interested you can read their whole write up or go to their source. They don't have a dog in any fight and don't care whose ox is gored, they just report what they can find, usually from relatively reliable sources NOT the "National Enquirer" sort of pubs.

Exercise care. You will be entering a science zone where your favorite dogma may be run down by their karma.

Pat

Pat,
I read the article and I have some issues with it:

For one, we don't know that without eating meat man would NOT have survived as a species. I don't like the speculative premise of the "success" of man being attributed to meat eating. Meat eating might have allowed man procreate faster but that doesn't mean that without meat he would have died off or that he would not have expanded his geographical boundaries. This would have happened regardless whether he ate meat or not as that is the natural progression when food in a specific area can no longer support the population of that area.

I would think that when man went to an agrarian society his life and health would have increased,this, not his meat eating, is the main factor establishing the marked difference in his success.
As for the premise that man's brain size increased indirectly because he ate meat is a reach. There are so many variables that could contribute to his brain size increase that to site one condition is simply biased opinion. We could as easily say that man's brain size increased when he started making crude tools to extract roots from the ground or making and maintaining fire.

"Do Primitive Peoples Really Live Longer?"

Posted on August 2, 2006 by Joel Fuhrman

"No. For example, Inuit Greenlanders, who historically have had limited access to fruits and vegetables, have the worst longevity statistics in North America. Research from the past and present shows that they die on the average about 10 years younger and have a higher rate of cancer than the overall Canadian population.1

"Similar statistics are available for the high meat-consuming Maasai in Kenya. They eat a diet high in wild hunted meats and have the worst life expectancy in the modern world. Life expectancy is 45 years for women and 42 years for men. African researchers report that, historically, Maasai rarely lived beyond age 60. Adult mortality figures on the Kenyan Maasai show that they have a 50% chance of dying before the age of 59.2

We now know that greatly increasing the consumption of vegetables, legumes, fruits, and raw nuts and seeds (and greatly decreasing the consumption of animal products) offers profound increased longevity potential, due in large part to broad symphony of life-extending phytochemical nutrients that a vegetable-based diet contains. By taking advantage of the year-round availability of high-quality plant foods, we have a unique opportunity to live both healthier and longer than ever before in human history."

1. Iburg KM, Bronnum-Hansen H, Bjerregaard P. Health expectancy in Greenland. Scand J Public Health 2001;29(1):5-12. Choinere R. Mortality among the Baffin Inuit in the mid-80s. Arctive Med Res 1992;51 (2):87-93.

Certainly today a vegetarian diet is a healthier diet. Lower cancer rates, longer life, etc. And there is no question a vegetarian diet is better for the planet. So what is this 'study' affording us? Faster procreation? We don't need that with 6.9 billion people on the planet!

Rob
 
   / Global Warming? #803  
OK Pat, there is several questions you have ignored.
1) If the earth is in as dire dire outlook as you imply why is the NO DATA to back it up. 30 years is a long time to research and have little to show for it.
2) If Man's impact is say 1/3 of total warming or less, and China and India don't change their ways what impact can the US have?
3) How many factors are there that affect the temp of the earth. How many of those can we control? Where are the articles on DOE (design of experiments) finding which of those factors are significant?
4) If we really are at the highest CO2 levels ever as Short Game claims, why isn't the global temp. at the highest ever?
There is a lot of conflicting opinions by qualified scientists out the public domain. Kinda reminds me of medical research where the first blush reaction is different than when the data is fully analyzed.

If I may, I'd like to address this (not trying to step on your toes Pat)

First, we don't know what the climate would be like if man was not a factor, that is if man did not exist.

We have to look at three scenarios:

1. The planet is getting cooler BUT because of man it is getting warmer or simply staying the same.

2. The planet is getting warmer BUT with man's influence it is getting warmer faster.

3. The planet isn't getting warmer or cooler BUT due to man it is warming.

The wild card is that we do not have a control condition to compare to. Until very recently in history man has not been able to monitor the temperature to the extreme tolerances he can today. We need more time BUT time is not something we have to paly with.
So, it is not a matter of how many factors we can control, or more accurately how many factors we contribute to, it is what is happening that we can not calculate at this time.

What we do know from basic science is that we are affecting the planet. We also know that man can not go along at his present rate of planetary abuse and expect to leave any semblance of a planet to future generations.

Rob
 
   / Global Warming? #804  
If I may, I'd like to address this (not trying to step on your toes Pat)

First, we don't know what the climate would be like if man was not a factor, that is if man did not exist.

Actually we do. It changes. There have been colder periods and there has been warmer periods. So from a general perspective we do. We don't know if the world warms 5 degrees what effect it will have or how long it will take at the present rate of change. But there has been change since man started paying attention.

The wild card is that we do not have a control condition to compare to. Until very recently in history man has not been able to monitor the temperature to the extreme tolerances he can today. We need more time BUT time is not something we have to paly with.

Why do you need a control? By identifying various factors such as sun output, CO2,orbital mechanics then devise experiments to provide SOME actual data as to how big a factor they are. I have yet to see a research project to quantify the contribution of CO2 to temp. rise. So the scientist should be gathering data and not horsing around. 30 years with no better handle on the situation should tell you something. You do know what DOE is what it is used for?

So, it is not a matter of how many factors we can control, or more accurately how many factors we contribute to, it is what is happening that we can not calculate at this time.

So we are going to control the climate without knowing what effects we will have with the changes. Sounds promising doesn't it. Would you get on an airplane with the pilot has the same grasp on how to fly it?

What we do know from basic science is that we are affecting the planet. We also know that man can not go along at his present rate of planetary abuse and expect to leave any semblance of a planet to future generations.

Yes we affect the planet. So does every living thing on it. And non-living processes such volcano, earthquakes etc. The 64 dollar question is do we affect the climate enough to make a difference and if so ho much. And if we don't get China, India Russia and other emerging economies to go along how much effect will the US have?
 
   / Global Warming? #805  
Actually we do. It changes. There have been colder periods and there has been warmer periods. So from a general perspective we do. We don't know if the world warms 5 degrees what effect it will have or how long it will take at the present rate of change. But there has been change since man started paying attention.



Why do you need a control? By identifying various factors such as sun output, CO2,orbital mechanics then devise experiments to provide SOME actual data as to how big a factor they are. I have yet to see a research project to quantify the contribution of CO2 to temp. rise. So the scientist should be gathering data and not horsing around. 30 years with no better handle on the situation should tell you something. You do know what DOE is what it is used for?



So we are going to control the climate without knowing what effects we will have with the changes. Sounds promising doesn't it. Would you get on an airplane with the pilot has the same grasp on how to fly it?



Yes we affect the planet. So does every living thing on it. And non-living processes such volcano, earthquakes etc. The 64 dollar question is do we affect the climate enough to make a difference and if so ho much. And if we don't get China, India Russia and other emerging economies to go along how much effect will the US have?

Yes, of course we know the planet is changing but we do not know what the temperature or climate would be like at this specific time if man was not a factor.

We need a control condition (not possible) because this is how science works. We have a control condition as a comparison factor. Without a control we have no datum point to measure differences.

We don't want to "control" the environment, we want to address the things we are doing that, not only affect it, but affect our own health because addressing those things addresses our real problem which is pollution. So it's not that we are in a dark room looking for a door. We know that we are having a monstrous affect on this planet, things like unscrubbed coal stacks that cause acid rain, smog and the acidification of our oceans. The high cancer rates, reflected in the massive number of men with prostate cancer and the number of women with breast cancer, etc. etc. are all part of the environment and what we do to it.

Every living thing affects the environment, certainly, but there are differences. An animal lives its life basically in harmony with the environment and leaves this planet unchanged. Plants have the same effect. When a plague of locusts or other environmental imbalance takes place it is for a short time and the planet recovers. Even something like Dutch Elm Disease, caused by the Elm Bark Beetle, that wipes out almost a whole species still doesn't imbalance the environment. The dinosaurs are gone but the planet balances. Man's effect goes beyond that. We have made changes to this planet and created genetic changes that can only recover if we stop doing some of the things we do, the acidification of the oceans for example. Some of our actions can't be reversed. We have introduced genetically modified crops and fish that we have no idea what the long range affects are for example.
We have been extracting trillions of barrels of crude out of this planet, what is the long range effect of that? Pesticides are destroying the bees that pollinate the food we eat, the apples we grow and the plants we eat. What other animal does that? What other animal pumps mercury and arsenic into the environment?
So man's effect is much more invasive than any other living thing and the planet is not equipped to deal with the damage we are doing.

Rob
 
   / Global Warming? #806  
If it is that bad then DO something about it. China out pollutes us now. India is not far behind. Russia is an eco mess. Does the planet care where the pollution comes from?
You appear to have a limited view of how science works.
What is this? we need control because that how science works? No sale.
Either we can quantify what affects our climate or we can't, which is it?If we can why is there no data from the research? Science works on data. Climate change papers have been lacking in REAL data.
 
   / Global Warming? #807  
If it is that bad then DO something about it. China out pollutes us now. India is not far behind. Russia is an eco mess. Does the planet care where the pollution comes from?
You appear to have a limited view of how science works.
What is this? we need control because that how science works? No sale.
Either we can quantify what affects our climate or we can't, which is it?If we can why is there no data from the research? Science works on data. Climate change papers have been lacking in REAL data.

Look, we are the worlds biggest per capita polluter and we use 1/4 of the worlds energy. I can't change what China does. I can't change what my neighbor does but does that mean because he drives a Hummer that gets atrocious mileage that I should drive a gas guzzler too?

I know exactly how science works. Experiments have control conditions, a test of a new drug has a control group that gets a placebo and a group that gets the drug. This way the scientist can tell if the new drug is working or there is simply a 'placebo effect'.

There is no way to test the environment without the effects of man, so there is no way to positively prove if there is an effect on the environment from man. The best we can do is address those conditions that are polluting the environment, this way we also address those conditions we believe are causing CC. Even if we are wrong and the conditions are not causing CC we still have worked to conserve this planet for future generations.
Hopefully the majority of us are not so selfish that we can think about the well being of those who will follow after us.

There are groups (Union of Concerned Scientists, etc. ) that believe CC is a real threat. We went through this before on this thread so I'm not going over it again.

"Real data"? You don't even know what a control condition is!

Rob
 
   / Global Warming? #808  
Look, we are the worlds biggest per capita polluter and we use 1/4 of the worlds energy. I can't change what China does. I can't change what my neighbor does but does that mean because he drives a Hummer that gets atrocious mileage that I should drive a gas guzzler too?

What does per capita have to do with total pollution? That is a straw man argument. Emerging economies do not have the same pollution controls as US.


I know exactly how science works. Experiments have control conditions, a test of a new drug has a control group that gets a placebo and a group that gets the drug. This way the scientist can tell if the new drug is working or there is simply a 'placebo effect'.

That is how medical researcher work. How about scientists work on the origins of the earth, or the universe? Do they have "controlled conditions" to test their theories?


There is no way to test the environment without the effects of man, so there is no way to positively prove if there is an effect on the environment from man. The best we can do is address those conditions that are polluting the environment, this way we also address those conditions we believe are causing CC. Even if we are wrong and the conditions are not causing CC we still have worked to conserve this planet for future generations.
Hopefully the majority of us are not so selfish that we can think about the well being of those who will follow after us.

There are groups (Union of Concerned Scientists, etc. ) that believe CC is a real threat. We went through this before on this thread so I'm not going over it again.

Some of the groups were invited to share their data.(UK Freedom of info act) As far as I know none have. Does that sound like scientist after the truth?

"Real data"? You don't even know what a control condition is!

I would like to see you prove that (with real data) :D

Since the are not control conditions for the overall environment you evaluate different factors as appropriate. That is where DOE comes in. You do know what DOE is don't you?
 
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