Are interest rates going up??

   / Are interest rates going up?? #31  
I was not happy when Mom rolled her 401k into an annuity... all these years later I feel bad because it has been paying 5% for a very long time... maybe she was one of the lucky ones but that annual check is a nice supplement.

I think I will pull the trigger on the 2% credit union 14 month CD... and insured for the dollar amount she has.

What I do see is a lot of seniors with money collecting 1/10 of a percent or less in Bank M/M checking deals... sad.

I remember putting together 10k so I could buy a CD paying 12%... many today think a 10-12% CD existed only in Fairy Tales...
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #32  
The problem w/ CDs is that you can rarely keep ahead of inflation, but if that's the requirement ...

1/ The Fed will raise its inter-bank lending rate, which defines the short-end interest rates.
2/ The US deficits mean the supply of new T.Bills will be plentiful. If for any reason demand doesn't keep pace, then long rates will increase.
3/ A number of factors (money supply & velocity of money) are "poised" to cause inflation. That doesn't mean 1980 type rates, nor does it mean this is likely to happen in the next 2 years (if ever). [predicting inflation is a losers game].
4/ Odds are you will see better rates 1, 2 and 3 years out. So I'd ladder in the <5year range.

I see you can get >2% for 18month CDs, and you don't get much of a premium going farther out. Personally I'd "do the math" assuming you'll see an additional ~0.5% return a year out. That's about an additional 20% return (2% -> 2.5%) .

I'm a pretty serious investor, but I rarely touch bonds & CDs except money market funds for cash. My personal view is that today's market is a great time to get ahead of future potential inflation.

AFAIK the only time you really "win" on CDs is if you lock-in long CDs before interest rates decline. If the other party can't tolerate growth stocks, I wonder if they could tolerate a small (10%) position in bank stocks or utilities ? Many offer dividends that rival CD returns.
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #33  
Yeah, the end of 10 years of artificially low interest rates is here. The FED has to unwind $3T on its books. One
year CDs at 2% indicate that inflation is a bit higher than that. You are not going to beat inflation with CDs.

FDIC insurance is per-person, so a couple has protection up to $500K per bank acct. Who knows how good
that insurance is going to be in the next banking crisis. Dodd-Frank guarantees protections for the mega banks,
so they will be inclined to take Bigger risks.

Annuities generate huge commissions for the seller, and lock in a return rate. Market rates go up? Tough.
Getting out of an annuity is also costly. Advantages of an annuity to the owner are few.
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #34  
I don't think it was as much being played as it was getting older and not paying attention. There were three banks involved in one of the individuals, but as far as I know now only one on the second. Notices had been sent every time the CDs were ready to be renewed. I spent an entire day going thru twenty years of notices stuck in drawers. Let me give you an example. Four CDs were bought at an Integra Bank sometime in the early 2000s. That bank failed in 2008-9 (I think). The CDs then went to a Bank in Evansville, Indiana that I've never heard of, then they were bought (??) by a bank in our home town. Others CDs were bought at a 'Liberty Bank' which was itself bought by 'Peoples First' which was bought by 'Union Planters' which was bought by 'Regions'. I am trying to trace all these down. At another bank I gave the not very friendly lady by name, SS number, and POA papers and she looked it all up on her computer and started laughing. Said they had been trying to contact the owner but were getting no replies to their letters. She said she was relieved to see me. She admitted on the second visit that at first she thought I was going to try to take money from the accounts for my own use. Surprisingly the bank people have directed me as to which of their competitors were paying higher rates and giving better terms. I have received a very good education on CDs and financial dealings in the past month. We are going to move a LOT of money from three banks to another. The bank paying the highest interest in not the winner. The one with a slightly lower rate but better rules on withdrawal won the contest. The way they are going to let me structure the CDs will also make it easier to remove money if the owner needs it for their care. At their age it is highly likely that they will. Also there will be a total of eighteen names on the CDs. Did I say this was complicated? Most banks said it would have to be eighteen different CDs but the one bank will let me structure all this into three different groups consisting of all children, all grands, and all great grands. They will all be POD also. Which means Pay On Death to the second name on the CD. This is so nobody will know about it until the owner passes. Sadly this is considered a necessity by some involved. The penalties and fees for early withdrawal of all the financial instruments (big words, ha) will be made up in two weeks and two days at the new rates. Understand why I have had constant indigestion for the past month? All of the banks have penalties for early withdrawal. Most are a cash amount, $25-$35, and the interest for a certain time. At all the banks except one you must cash in an entire CD, get the money you need, pay the penalty ($25 + a year's interest on the entire CD), and roll the remainder into another smaller instrument. The bank we have chosen will allow us to take out the money needed from the CD and only pay the $25+a year's interest ON THE AMOUNT WITHDRAWN. This is not my money. I am doing this because the person trusts me and knows I will not cheat them. EVERY SINGLE PERSON I have dealt with at eight to ten banks, I forget exactly, has been polite and helpful. Some were skeptical of me at first. I have heard enough horror stories from them to understand why. Also heard about the brother and sister who came in one bank earlier this year asking about their recently deceased parent's checking and savings accounts. Said they knew their parents didn't have much because they had been putting money into their checking each month for years so they could buy groceries. They were surprised when told that they now had over a hundred thousand in CDs they didn't know existed. Their parents had been buying CDs with the extra money they got each month. RSKY

Wow - put your money in a Canadian bank. (They have US denominated accounts). They NEVER fail - not once.
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #35  
Wow - put your money in a Canadian bank. (They have US denominated accounts). They NEVER fail - not once.

True! Back in what we called the "Great Depression", thousands of US banks failed, but no Canadian banks
did. Of course, I think Canada had only 8 banks at the time, IIRC. The big diff was US regulations made it difficult
or impossible for banks to span large customer bases, across state lines. This would have spread the risk of failure
beyond local towns, cities, or whole states.

The facts are that US New Deal policies extended what would have been a 1 or 2 year recession into
a decade of misery. In other parts of the western world, recovery was much quicker. The recession of
1920 was actually deeper than the one in 1930, but recovery took about a year. There was little
government or FED intervention then, and the govt actually reduced spending.
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #36  
If a person adds POD (Payable on Death) names to a CD does that increase the Insurance Coverage in 250k increments for each named?
 
   / Are interest rates going up??
  • Thread Starter
#37  
If a person adds POD (Payable on Death) names to a CD does that increase the Insurance Coverage in 250k increments for each named?

Yes. I didn't know that until I started on this task. I thought you had to spread the money around to different banks. If there are four names on a CD they are each insured for 250k.

RSKY
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #39  
I may add POD to my CD... last thing I would want is to have a simple error erase decades of saving.
 
   / Are interest rates going up?? #40  
If a person adds POD (Payable on Death) names to a CD does that increase the
Insurance Coverage in 250k increments for each named?

I don't see how. Those beneficiaries are not named owners of the acct. Yet. After it transfers, then maybe so.

BTW, California has a car titling feature that allows for automatic transfer upon death, too.

All people with assets and kids, or others you want to benefit from your death, should have a living
trust. I have been a successor trustee, and liquidating such a trust after death avoids massive probate fees
and dealing with courts or lawyers.
 

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