Long-term average inflation rate is 3.22% $30,000 tractor today will cost $35151 in 5 years based on the average. Savings of $1,183 financing tractor now.
US Inflation Long Term Average
Let's use 3% average instead --- $30,000 tractor today will cost $34778 in 5 years based on 3% inflation. Savings of $810 financing tractor now
Using the inflationdata.com link above the calculator shows from Aug 2013 to Aug 2018 a $30k tractor in 2013 is now $32343.41 today - Loss of $1624 financing tractor now
$4929 investment earnings (tax removed) - $1183 saved by financing now = $3746 / 60 months = $62.43 cost per month.
$4929 investment earnings (tax removed) - $810 saved by financing now = $4119 / 60 months = $68.65 cost per month.
$4929 investment earnings (tax removed) + $1624 loss by financing now = $6553 / 60 months = $109.22 cost per month
There is no scenario where you lose $9767.22. Rather than going without a tractor, where else can money be saved?
How much does one spend per day on 1. Coffee? 2. Eating out? 3. Cigarettes/Alcohol? that can be cut back/eliminated for cost savings? For $62.43 to $109.22 per month?
If it takes me 12 hours a week to do chores by hand and 4 hours with tractor what do I do with the extra time? Get a 2nd job and invest that money? Go fishing? Enjoy my kids/spouse/time with friends? Contribute my time to a charity helping others?
If I live in a tent and save money for 30 years can I buy a house? If I walk to work every day can I save money to buy a car? Do I want to?
Is this a disingenuous thread where the OP didn't want advice but wanted to point out how much money we who finance "lose"? Is the scenario valid in the real world? Does anyone who has $0 in savings plan on putting away $500 a month in investments or financing a tractor for $566.14 per month? Does anyone who has $0 in savings make enough money for either investing or tractor payments after they pay for housing, car, food, utilities, etc unless they live in a tent and walk to work in which case they probably don't own land to use a tractor on anyways? Just saying....
I say invest the money for 5 years and one can always come to TBN and watch "tractor ****" aka everyone else's pictures of their tractors. :laughing::laughing:
As previously mentioned, I calculated everything in "today's dollars" by removing inflation from my investment returns. We can just as easily calculate it taking into account the tractor inflation value:
Tractor = $30,000
Inflation at 3%: Tractor value in 5 years $34,778.22 (Note, this neglects tractor depreciation, which is probably not a good assumption either).
Interest payments on a $30,000 tractor at 5% interest for 5 years: $3,968.22
Difference = +810 (So far, so good)
Return on savings assuming 10% (instead of 7%) because the inflation is now factored into the tractor price, and SP500 historically returns 10% (14% over the last 5 years)
$500 monthly investment for 5 years, at 10% return, and subtracting 15% annual taxes on the interest (which I initially didn't consider - I should have) yields a total value of $37,272.89.
So total difference in money is: Invested money - (tractor value - interest payment) = $37,272.89 - ($34,778.22 - $3968.22) = $6,462.89 total cost of having the tractor now as opposed to waiting. That's assuming the tractor experiences zero depreciation, which is unrealistic, so the total cost should be a little higher than that. In my personal opinion, that seems like a lot of money.
Regarding your latter comments. Yes, for the past 3'ish years I have been slowly saving for a tractor on top of all of my other expenses, retirement savings, etc. , while looking at an unhealthy amount of tractor ****. I have enough saved up for ~70% of the total tractor cost.
If I honestly answer Arrow's question, at this point in my life, with work obligations, family, and church service, I really need more time. (The wife and I went from thinking we wouldn't be able to have kids to having 1 (now 3 yrs old), followed by twins (now 1 yrs old). As some have suggested, because I already have a lump sum saved, even if I pay the interest/finance charge, as long as that lump sum continues to earn interest at a rate higher than the interest/finance rate on the loan, I'll come out ahead, just not as much ahead as if I waited to pay cash.
However, this approach would mean the "cost" of buying a tractor now is significantly reduced, and at some point that number is going to be worth the benefit of having the tractor now, versus waiting. (If $6,462.89 is too much right now, what about $5,000, or $4,000, or ... you get my point). The question is "what is that number worth"? It's certainly different for everyone. I'm just trying to find my comfort zone, while hoping others can give their perspective on it. I do tend to agree with the oft expressed sentiment that once I get a tractor, I will probably find a lot of things that it is useful for that I previously didn't consider.
My problem in all of this is that I come from a long line of <ahem> ... let's say, "spendthrifts". Aside from purchasing a home, I have never been in debt a day in my life. This has allowed me to be in a stable financial situation where I am on track for a comfortable retirement, have liquid emergency savings if something catastrophic happens, and can still put aside some each month for items such as a tractor.
However, living this way for many years makes the thought of taking out a loan a very difficult pill to swallow; even if what I really need right now is time, rather than money, and in the grand scheme of things the financial "loss" would not be all that great.
I'm not one to make rash decisions, but instead prefer to think something completely through and try to see all of the angles. However, I also realize that my way of looking at it purely as an economic exercise does not necessarily paint a complete picture of the decision making process. For this reason, it's very helpful to hear how others came to their decision, as it helps me to consider variables/considerations I may be overlooking.