Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[aczlan]

I agree with your points. I think the makers of these new gas engines did not realize how fast EV technology was going to bite the ICE business or the carbon tax factors. Because the old line companies chose to not lead in the EV market in a meaningful after having a 20 year head start means they are helping to fuel Tesla's expansion plans internationally. I am concerned Ford may not be around come 2040 due to old factories and the dealership model. Even GM and Ford buyers no longer need a 100-1000 cars and trucks to look at to make a buying decision and the sales staff would be better replaced with more finance staff. When I bought my 2016 Leaf last Oct I had my money with me but still had to wait 3 hours to leave the dealership because the one finance guy was back logged with sales from that day.

EV power sources is the main thing that is holding up EV sales today. The new China Tesla factory is ready to build 3000 cars a week but their outside battery source can only get out 1000 battery packs a week.

Tesla sold carbon-emissions credits to General Motors and Fiat Chrysler - Business Insider

No, they're just looking at a different market and (probbaly) waiting until electric power plants are a little bit more mature before they start running them.
The market that would buy a 3/4 ton, 1 ton or larger truck will need more range and power than are available with currently available and on the road vehicles. Yes Tesla has a semi truck, but it's not at much more than a demo stage right now and somebody who's looking for a new truck for their lawn care business, towing a 10,000 pound trailer, etc etc etc can't afford to have downtime from a unproven electric power plant.
Give that five to ten years till the technology would sure is a little bit more mature and yes you will see them. GM after all had a hybrid version of a half ton pickup or SUV.

Aaron Z

 

[sd455dan]

WOW! That was 6 years ago also. Elon Musk is clearly driving cars to the next level in all ways. Thanks for sharing.

Yeah- The Model Y is going to be very interesting,

Think this was posted before but it is revolutionary and the mainstream manufacturers will probably pick up the tech once TESLA proves it with the Y

The rigid modular wiring harness saving a bunch of wire- 1.5 KM in a model 3 to about 100 meters in the Y model and can be installed much faster ( robots)

Tesla reveals revolutionary new wiring architecture to help robots build upcoming cars like Model Y - Electrek

 

[Gale Hawkins]

No, they're just looking at a different market and (probbaly) waiting until electric power plants are a little bit more mature before they start running them.
The market that would buy a 3/4 ton, 1 ton or larger truck will need more range and power than are available with currently available and on the road vehicles. Yes Tesla has a semi truck, but it's not at much more than a demo stage right now and somebody who's looking for a new truck for their lawn care business, towing a 10,000 pound trailer, etc etc etc can't afford to have downtime from a unproven electric power plant.
Give that five to ten years till the technology would sure is a little bit more mature and yes you will see them. GM after all had a hybrid version of a half ton pickup or SUV.

Aaron Z

I'm not sure a lawnmower guy would want a 1 ton EV. I can see the big 3 waiting for Elon Musk to show them how to do EV's.

 

[aczlan]

I'm not sure a lawnmower guy would want a 1 ton EV. I can see the big 3 waiting for Elon Musk to show them how to do EV's.

Why not? Lots of stop and go, moderate load, plenty of torque.
Now, it might be a series hybrid vs a electric only machine, but...

As for them waiting for Musk to show them how to do it, more likely they are waiting for component parts to come down in price and things to stabilize a little. Musk is ok with replacing electric motors and doing other things that most would consider major service as a recall as he does incremental upgrades as the model matures.
Most big automakers are not willing to commit that much money as a contengiency for recalls, they would rather start with a version that has most of the bugs worked out.

Aaron Z

 

[drssg]

69

Volvo and VW are the only two I know that claim to be getting out of the ICE business at this time within the next 5 years. 2030 and 2040 are the more common dates.

European countries banning fossil fuel cars and switching to electric

Zero-Emission Vehicles Act would eliminate gas-powered U.S. car sales - Curbed

Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia

France sticks to planned ban on gas and diesel cars by 24

Gas and diesel cars will become more expense in the EC due to green tax laws. In the next 1-5 years we are going to change leadership in the USA and the CA limits may be moving east down the road. Gas and diesel cars will just get priced/taxed out of the market place over time I expect. It may be 2030 before Tesla can produce 10 million cars a year. Currently world wide annual new car sales are 70-80 million so there is NO way to get there fast. We need something besides hydrogen and lithium batteries to make those numbers. With Robo taxis the sale of new cars may drop like a rock per some pushing the coming auto self driving vehicles.

EU Auto Makers Have to Sell More Electric Cars as New Emission Targets Loom - WSJ

Of all those links, the only one that dealt with US policy was a proposal with a 20 year goal, not 10.

Are you accepting my bet? I have a dollar waiting for you in 2030, if you think I'm wrong.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Of all those links, the only one that dealt with US policy was a proposal with a 20 year goal, not 10.

Are you accepting my bet? I have a dollar waiting for you in 2030, if you think I'm wrong.

Sure but I expect there will be gas stations still pumping gas on the way to my 110th birthday bash in 2061.

I think the cost of ICE being greater than for the same EV will be the thing that makes the change quicker. Semi trucks make lead the change over since they burn 17% of the fuel today especially if they become self driving. Cars are another matter because the math is not there to trade a new like ICE for an EV today. I am 69 and could make it many years with the vehicles we currently have. Even with the lowly Leaf I prefer never to go back to ICE long term after driving an EV for a few months. I have been driving the Subaru for the last month since the Leaf is in for a battery pack replacement and waiting for heat bugs me after getting use to the heat pump and no running motor to warm up the car.

The dealership model is outdated and inflates ownership costs. The way cars are still being built today is out of date as well. Sticking an electric motor into a gas chassis is a hack but it is required for companies short on cash. Tesla's competition is not the old name car builders but the new car companies that will come in the shadow of Tesla's apparent success. Companies that want to out source for batteries are dead in the water based on what Nissan and Tesla learned years ago.

We old boomers like the old stuff but the next generation is not going to spend our money on the old ways that made the boomer wealth. Batteries have to get better and I think they will. Elon Musk states it will be 2030 before the batteries are good enough for Tesla to get into planes. The semi market is going to drive battery advancements because the 300+ mile range of today is good more most car usage.

If Robo Taxis do take off the number of car sales can drop a lot saving us money.

This all sounds like science fiction to me but then today's science fiction is tomorrows reality we now realize.

 

[Grumpycat]

Musk is ok with replacing electric motors and doing other things that most would consider major service as a recall as he does incremental upgrades as the model matures.

Tesla is not replacing motors or other such things as "incremental upgrades". Tesla does revise and upgrade system firmware. I quit counting a couple years ago when my 2013 Model S had about 10 over-the-air firmware updates sitting in my driveway.

Tesla does not wait for new model year to make changes. Changes go into production as soon as they are ready. In my case folding outside mirrors were added to the option list after my car was ordered. I contacted Tesla and had the option added to my car before it was built.

Another example is how Tesla has changed TPMS provider. Mine does not display tire pressures, new does. Tesla will retrofit my TPMS to the latest with display, for only $700. Thanks, but no thanks.

 

[California]

I agree with most of the forecasts for EV evolution but there's an exception:

I don't think the majority of Americans want to convert to Uber or robotaxis for personal trips. Those forecasts must be written by New Yorkers who rely on public transit to get around. Those forecasts seem oblivious to the sense of freedom that has been inherent in driving since the beginning.

 

[airbiscuit]

I agree with most of the forecasts for EV evolution but there's an exception:

I don't think the majority of Americans want to convert to Uber or robotaxis for personal trips. Those forecasts must be written by New Yorkers who rely on public transit to get around. Those forecasts seem oblivious to the sense of freedom that has been inherent in driving since the beginning.

Self driving cars will actually enhance the freedom of elderly non-drivers in rural areas. A robotaxi is preferable to a nursing home.

 

[California]

Self driving cars will actually enhance the freedom of elderly non-drivers in rural areas. A robotaxi is preferable to a nursing home.

True. Dad voluntarily gave up his license at 88, I suspect he had too many scares. Uber coming out to the ranch here would have been far better than the flaky part time caregivers he had for driving and housekeeping, but those made it possible for him to live here the rest of his life.

I'm pre-boomer, from before use of the atom bomb. I expect Uber will be helpful to me in what I hope is the far future. But meanwhile I'm planning to buy a Tesla Y, partly because over the years its accident avoidance features will improve the odds for us and others as I and my wife age. Tesla is more than just battery propulsion, they are also leading the evolution of the intelligent car.