How long before Compact Diesels are obsolete?

[randyjs]

I hate ...some batteries .... too!
Your "1950 Fordson tractor" if truly a Ford 1950 model, would actually be a Ford 8N.
Fordson tractor production (nearly 740,000) was terminated in 1928.

I have a 1964 Fordson Super Major, the last year for Fordson.

 

[finn1]

Maybe not in my lifetime, but the day battery technology dominates most power sources is coming.

The naysayers always bring up “dirty coal”, but the data says coal production is dropping off a cliff, with mines closing because of lack of worldwide demand. Coal power plants are disappearing worldwide too.

Renewables are coming on strong, even in states like Texas, with its huge oil lobby. Oil companies like BP and Exon Mobilare relabeling themselves as energy companies and are active in alternative energy research

Electric lawn and garden equipment is making inroads. Many people I know personally have switched to electric lawnmowers and are completely satisfied. Leaf blowers, and even chain saws are trending that way for many homeowner applications, and small power tools are dominated by battery equipment.

Europe has all but outlawed diesel cars and trucks in many cities, and Volkswagen has all but given up on Diesels as a result. Ford announced their upcoming Electric Transit cargo van. I bet Amazon will buy thousands of them

Over on the skid steer Facebook page, there is a company peddling battery powered skid steers. Not for everyone, but it has its place.

Whenever a new technology starts to change the game, you find early adaptors and holdouts resisting change. Change is inevitable, though.

 

[metalbender]

Up in Ft Mc Murray Alberta, the oilsands haul trucks run 24/7. See a problem? Big electric shovels won't run on a few solar panels, they also run 24/7. Because most of what is produced involves oil in the manufacturing process, oil isn't going anywhere. The government could control electricity much easier than other fuels. Need a good source for Dilithium crystals captain.

 

[Hay Dude]

Maybe not in my lifetime, but the day battery technology dominates most power sources is coming.

The naysayers always bring up “dirty coal”, but the data says coal production is dropping off a cliff, with mines closing because of lack of worldwide demand. Coal power plants are disappearing worldwide too.

Renewables are coming on strong, even in states like Texas, with its huge oil lobby. Oil companies like BP and Exon Mobilare relabeling themselves as energy companies and are active in alternative energy research

Electric lawn and garden equipment is making inroads. Many people I know personally have switched to electric lawnmowers and are completely satisfied. Leaf blowers, and even chain saws are trending that way for many homeowner applications, and small power tools are dominated by battery equipment.

Europe has all but outlawed diesel cars and trucks in many cities, and Volkswagen has all but given up on Diesels as a result. Ford announced their upcoming Electric Transit cargo van. I bet Amazon will buy thousands of them

Over on the skid steer Facebook page, there is a company peddling battery powered skid steers. Not for everyone, but it has its place.

Whenever a new technology starts to change the game, you find early adaptors and holdouts resisting change. Change is inevitable, though.

I thought China was building coalitions fired plants at like a 1/week pace?

 

[MiserableOldFart]

Arent all these batteries going to present a disposal problem? Lots of extra mining/pollution for rare earth metals extraction? Its not like batteries are a free lunch.
I can see battery technology also forcing improvements on ICEs to the point where they become much more efficient and less polluting. Cummins wont go down without a fight.

Industrial scale battery recycling will come around to recycle, and no, there isn't a huge mining situation. Lithium mines are often misrepresented in the media, being similar in nature to oil wells, not the copper mines that are sometimes shown, though copper too will be used, and eventually recycled in these machines. Cobalt is the other major rare element in the manufacture of batteries, but there are promising new technologies using other, more mundane materials.

 

[MiserableOldFart]

I don't think the idea of having to throw away your battery set every 5-10 years is environmentally sensible. I have a pile of perfectly good cordless drills I can't buy batteries for, and the new ones are always a proprietary design and way over priced.

If the government mandates an interchangeable design and charging standard for all battery devices then adoption of battery devices will be more wide spread. Right now the trend is design for obsolescence and prevent end users from maintaining and servicing. Disposable by design. Companies should be forced to pay for the complete life cycle of a product...from retail packaging dunnage to 100% recycling of the products at end of life. The fact that it's cheaper to throw it in the garbage indicates that convenience is more important than being responsible.

For the average home owner electric is good enough. For commercial operators it isn't a competitive technology compared to IC engines that can run indefinitely as long as you have ample source of non-proprietary fuel...gas and diesel at every street corner.

I do believe an interchangeable auxiliary batter for EVs, forced by "evil government," that rides in the trunk or some other place in or on the vehicle, or even hanging off the back end of the vehicle, where you could pull into a battery station and have it swapped out in a minute with a freshly charged one might eventually become a reality.

There is also the possibility of better and stronger capacitors, which could be charged quickly at a charging station and then dish off the juice to run the vehicle and the rest into the batteries simultaneously. But for cars, tight now, the range of pure EVs is already enough for 95% of vehicle owners for about 99% of their trips.

 

[MiserableOldFart]

The idea that diesel generators will be needed to charge electric construction vehicles, yes, that would be ridiculous, but I doubt necessary in many places. Getting serious juice to most construction sites should be much easier than getting it onto farms, imho, and you even have John Deere building concept very large farm tractors that run off "extension cords" now. Whether or not that actually comes to pass, I don't know, but getting serious juice to construction vehicles, even while they're running, should be a much easier task.

I want to thank all who have commented here.

I'm sticking by my guns, and I'm going to say here that within a decade most CUTs sold new will be battery electric, and they will be comparable to or less expensive than diesels in price. Plug in hybrids in cars seemed like a good idea a few years ago, but mostly are being bypassed for true EVs now, and I don't expect the plug-in hybrid concept to fly with tractors due to the cost of having an engine generator onboard.

Remember too that the tier 4 emissions have added serious cost to diesels, and that isn't likely to go away. Just look at the Kubota L2501 for a tractor that is seriously underpowered for its size and weight and likely wouldn't even exist if it weren't for the 26 hp entry into the extra doodads.

 

[Chilliwack Murray]

One major hurdle is that most construction sites have very limited electrical capacity when most of the construction equipment is in use.

You can’t just tap off a 15 or 25kV line for temporary power. Temporary substations exist but are mostly used in remote locations and require extensive coordination with the utility - it’s often the utility that uses them because they make it too difficult for anyone else to use one.

Diesel gensets will be the economical and quick go to for a long time to come. You can get several MWs of diesel generator power connected and running in most urban areas in a matter of hours.

I don’t doubt electric construction equipment will find uses but you can be sure it will be almost exclusively in government tax funded applications for a long time.

 

[CalG]

I hate ...some batteries .... too!
Your "1950 Fordson tractor" if truly a Ford 1950 model, would actually be a Ford 8N.
Fordson tractor production (nearly 740,000) was terminated in 1928.

It's an E27n , Dagenham made.

 

[Citydude]

I thought China was building coalitions fired plants at like a 1/week pace?

China has branched out and is building coal fired plants in Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt and the Philippines. Even Saudi Arabia is set to build a mega plant.

They (China) have retired some outdated plants to building new mega plants. China became a major player in the world economic climate with energy from coal. They are not going to change from that standpoint. No matter what the UN is preaching.