Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[Hay Dude]

Don't buy an EV if you don't want one.

All we want is the choice to remain

 

[airbiscuit]

That choice still exists. There is no mandate.

 

[Hay Dude]

That choice still exists. There is no mandate.

But we can all see the writing on the wall. It’s coming.

 

[airbiscuit]

So, we agree - There Is No Mandate. Now the market is a different matter.

 

[Fuddy1952]

I believe most people jump into things without reasoning it all out.
I did some research and if I went solar (and I have thousands of sq.ft. South facing roof lines counting house, 2 story garage, horse stable) the payback is 20 years. Payback of course is system cost factoring in usage.
What they DON'T factor in I'll get to in a minute...
How much does the Ford Lightning cost? About $50K. Add that to my solar system cost (less credits of course) now we're at about $70K, depending on charger, batteries, etc.
Now pick a random mutual fund (I'll use Fidelity Puritan, started after WWII)...life of fund average 11.07%/yr., reinvesting cap gains & dividends.
So for fun instead of 11.07% let's use 9%.
$70,000 at 9%= $6,300 a year or $525 a month.
Who can guess what my TOTAL electric AND gas+diesel bill is a month. Hint: it's less than $525 a month.
NOW! That truck...will it depreciate? Will it ever need new batteries? That solar system (especially if it has back-up batteries), will it ever need repairs?
To imagine going electric...now we have clean pollution free air! That because everyone going solar we won't need an electric grid or power production. Certainly no pollution from manufacturing vehicles or batteries.
Growing up our neighbor, 2,500 acres had no car just oxen and some Belgian drafts.
Choices! I don't need or want my Uncle sucker telling me what to drive, if I can have a diesel tractor/truck, motorcycle, chainsaw, mower. If I want electric I'll buy one.
I can't wait to see a Dewalt 72" bar saw .

 

[Steppenwolfe]

But we can all see the writing on the wall. It’s coming.

Just more Doom, Gloom, and The Sky is Falling negativism... Debbie Downer syndrome run amuck...

 

[3930dave]

At the moment, I don't view what's coming short-term as a Total EV mandate..... but, where we are at is the next-best thing, due to a # of factors.

Many vehicle companies were already in trouble financially, well before Covid hit.

Traditional vehicle manufacturers have very long (by tech-sector standards) Design/Test/Validation/Certification cycles.

ICE vehicle companies can't ignore that govts are signalling those engines are "history". Well, maybe not for their own use, but at least for the unwashed masses.....

Given financial constraints, many traditional vehicle manufacturers can't afford to fund both ICE platforms (under ever increasing govt emission restrictions) and what's needed for widespread EV platforms.

So, govts can distance themselves, a bit, from what some/many vehicle companies will have no choice ($ wise) in doing...... drop ICE platforms way faster than what govts "mandate".

Look at what a pre-emmision diesel truck (light or heavy) goes for in the Used market in the last 10 years..... I won't be surprised if good used ICE engine vehicles follow that same trajectory, not that far away in time.

In terms of material products, there is nothing I'd like to be more wrong about, than that last paragraph....

I know why the peasants (like me) drive beater vehicles; I found it interesting that an MD chooses to follow the same practice....

What Cars Do Rich People Drive? | White Coat Investor

Right now, a basic useful EV car is about 3x the New cost of an similar function ICE car here.

Choke off the New ICE vehicle pipeline, and the Used market dries up fairly quickly. If I have to explain Supply/Demand to anybody, I'll start by assuming they have been in a coma for the last 20+ months.....

One way or another, I expect that driving a personal vehicle is going to jump significantly in cost over the next 10 years or less, ICE or otherwise.

If I had a mid-six figure or higher annual income, I likely wouldn't be typing this....

Rgds, D.

 

[Hay Dude]

I believe most people jump into things without reasoning it all out.
I did some research and if I went solar (and I have thousands of sq.ft. South facing roof lines counting house, 2 story garage, horse stable) the payback is 20 years. Payback of course is system cost factoring in usage.
What they DON'T factor in I'll get to in a minute...
How much does the Ford Lightning cost? About $50K. Add that to my solar system cost (less credits of course) now we're at about $70K, depending on charger, batteries, etc.
Now pick a random mutual fund (I'll use Fidelity Puritan, started after WWII)...life of fund average 11.07%/yr., reinvesting cap gains & dividends.
So for fun instead of 11.07% let's use 9%.
$70,000 at 9%= $6,300 a year or $525 a month.
Who can guess what my TOTAL electric AND gas+diesel bill is a month. Hint: it's less than $525 a month.
NOW! That truck...will it depreciate? Will it ever need new batteries? That solar system (especially if it has back-up batteries), will it ever need repairs?
To imagine going electric...now we have clean pollution free air! That because everyone going solar we won't need an electric grid or power production. Certainly no pollution from manufacturing vehicles or batteries.
Growing up our neighbor, 2,500 acres had no car just oxen and some Belgian drafts.
Choices! I don't need or want my Uncle sucker telling me what to drive, if I can have a diesel tractor/truck, motorcycle, chainsaw, mower. If I want electric I'll buy one.
I can't wait to see a Dewalt 72" bar saw .

You know you’re getting a hard sell when someone only tells you the upside of their ideas and the downside of your ideas.
What would be more honest and actually get more traction with those who may not like EVs would be to openly and honestly discuss what we will do about the heavy polluting process of mining the materials needed, what will be the pollution impact of landfill stored batteries? What will be the social cost to people who live in apartments who cannot charge an EV!(but they can park an ICEV in a parking lot)
Or what about people who cannot afford them (will they end up in low quality Chinese EVs, further reducing American produced cars?)

 

[Hay Dude]

So, we agree - There Is No Mandate. Now the market is a different matter.

I don’t agree.
Stuff can be mandated without being directly mandated. If “zero emissions” are mandated, what will happen to ICEVs?
No mandate for EVs was given, but IVEVs are legislated out of existence.
You can also price their fuel so high that people have to park them. Again, no mandate, but can’t drive ICEVs

 

[Cat385B]

Fuddy, your math checks out.

As long as:

You never replace your current truck. If you do, I would think those numbers apply to a gas or diesel truck also.
Imo, solar systems currently don’t pencil out when I pay .08-.13 for electricity. Unfortunately, that is going to drastically change. Xcel Energy, for example, has requested a 21% rate increase over the next three years here in Minnesota.