Are tractor prices dropping, have they peaked?

[Snobdds]

Wish you were correct but I doubt it. Certain political types are in favor of importing enough people to take up the slack (and future voters?) Combine that with the cyclical underbuilding that has gone on the past 10 years, and I just don't see the basis for a major housing crash.

There are an estimated 7.5 million second homes, with over 85% belonging to boomers.
There is an estimated 5 million homes short of demand.

The math is easy.

Nation’s Stock of Second Homes | Eye On Housing

According to NAHB estimates, the total count of second homes was 7.5 million, accounting for 5.5% of the total housing stock in 2018, the most recent data available. As of 2018, the state with the largest stock of second homes was Florida (1.1 million), accounting for 14.5% of all second homes...

eyeonhousing.org

 

[cathy liebchen]

There are an estimated 7.5 million second homes, with over 85% belonging to boomers.
There is an estimated 5 million homes short of demand.

The math is easy.

Nation’s Stock of Second Homes | Eye On Housing

According to NAHB estimates, the total count of second homes was 7.5 million, accounting for 5.5% of the total housing stock in 2018, the most recent data available. As of 2018, the state with the largest stock of second homes was Florida (1.1 million), accounting for 14.5% of all second homes...

eyeonhousing.org

By then a whole new group of people will want second homes. We have 2 of them

 

[cathy liebchen]

I looks like the prices for gas, diesel, used cars, and other commodities have peaked from the tremendous surge of the last year..

Used car prices are starting to decline

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a gauge of wholesale market prices for used vehicles, dropped for its second straight month.

www.axios.com

Gas Prices Drop Two Weeks in a Row, and Now E15 Gas Will Be Allowed over Summer

E15 gasoline with ethanol will be allowed to be sold over the summer in a break from the usual. That could lead to further declines in the cost of filling up your vehicle, but consumers are still restless.

www.caranddriver.com

https://www.fleetowner.com/news/article/21236802/diesel-prices-ease-a-bit-but-remain-high

But has anyone seen the tractor prices easing up, have they peaked and beginning to go down or at least level off.

Prices will not go down as more people have more money than ever. The widespread wealth building now is breathtaking

 

[Torvy]

Prices will not go down as more people have more money than ever. The widespread wealth building now is breathtaking

Bigger numbers does not necessarily mean wealth. Inflation literally makes the numbers bigger, but does not help buying power.

Gas prices are only easing because of election year smoke and mirrors. There is only so much in strategic reserves and the e15 move is a joke. Until or unless they make a commitment to pipelines and other domestic oil production rule changes, it is not worth it for the companies to produce much more. To them, the policy is like this: Politician "we want to kill you"...oil producers "darn, we will have to pull back and evaluate" Politicians: " umm, yeah, so we need you to keep producing for now, but later we will still kill you" oil producers "no thanks, if we are going to die anyway, why would we make it easier on our killers?" Politicians "it is all the greedy oil companies fault"

As for used car prices, those are mostly used trucks and others with low gas mileage. Prices dipped a little, a few hundred on 20k+. Responded to uptick in gas prices. Not seeing much real movement...my 21 y/o is looking for his 1st (used) car, so we have been watching closely.

There are still a lot of people trying to buy before the rates and prices both get really high. Eventually, the two going up will stall out the economy and we get recession. Unfortunately, the decision makers don't understand how it works, or they don't care. It will not be pretty.

 

[jyoutz]

There are an estimated 7.5 million second homes, with over 85% belonging to boomers.
There is an estimated 5 million homes short of demand.

The math is easy.

Nation’s Stock of Second Homes | Eye On Housing

According to NAHB estimates, the total count of second homes was 7.5 million, accounting for 5.5% of the total housing stock in 2018, the most recent data available. As of 2018, the state with the largest stock of second homes was Florida (1.1 million), accounting for 14.5% of all second homes...

eyeonhousing.org

I don’t see a housing crash, but I do see a leveling off of prices or reduced value growth. Mortgage rates are now at 5%.

 

[Torvy]

I don’t see a housing crash, but I do see a leveling off of prices or reduced value growth. Mortgage rates are now at 5%.

You may be right nationwide. There will likely be some areas that see substantial drops. The youngest Boomers are 57 right now. 20 years from now, or so, about half of them will be gone. As @Snobdds said, the math is easy. There is a lot to discuss on this, but I just noticed this is not on the Front Porch. May need to move it or spin a specific thread just on this sub-topic.

More directly to the OP, point...I think you might see a slow down in the rate of price increases vis-a-vis tractors. I think some of the increases we've already seen were anticipatory. The core inflationary problem is in its infancy and it is going to take some painful years to right the ship. Financial cycles are never neatly smooth curves. Little ups and downs exist within the larger curves. Any little change you see now is transitory.

 

[Reddogs]

Prices will not go down as more people have more money than ever. The widespread wealth building now is breathtaking

But its not real, as like 1929 stock market crash, you can lose it overnight. As the old saying goes, 'those who don't learn from the past'....

 

[Bill Guenthner]

When the recession happens, anything that is optional/recreational will drop prices dramatically. I’ve lived through enough of these cycles. If you sit on cash and have it to spend in a recession you can get insane bargains on things like boats, lake homes, classic cars, etc. If anyone tells you “It’s different this time”, start picking out which of their possessions you plan to buy in the distress sale.

 

[Snobdds]

By then a whole new group of people will want second homes. We have 2 of them

No other generation will have the wealth the baby boomers did.

Their prime purchasing years happened to be when interest rates were high, but asset prices were low. They bought homes at a low cost, but had a 15% mortgage. In the 80's when interest rates dropped, they refinanced their their primary home down to a point they paid it off quicker than the 30 year norm. Then they started to buy second homes and time shares.

The current generation has the exact opposite. High asset prices but low financing. They will never be able to use interest rate movement to their benefit, nor will they ever have cheap asset prices. The dynamic is totally different.

 

[Snobdds]

Prices will not go down as more people have more money than ever. The widespread wealth building now is breathtaking

No...leverage is what is breathtaking now. People are streached so thin that it's only going to take one recession to make a lot of seemingly rich people poor.