The Glut Cometh

[jyoutz]

Smart move for now. Last off lease buggy I bought was a 14 Ford Focus SE Hatch with a 5 speed and I bought it for 10 cash with 22K actual miles from a Ford dealer (had the balance of the factory warranty left which I extended an extra 3 years because of all the electronics). Never had any issues with it. Still have it, excellent car and it gets 40 mpg too. Sticker was 24K btw. They also had an off lease RS Focus that I almost got instead but my wife said no. She knows I have a lead foot and would probably lose my license with the RS which is a supercar in econobox clothing.

Bought my wife a Suburban the same way, Loaded LTZ and gave 16 for it with 62K miles on it. They retail for 80+ today.

Now is not the time to peruse the used-off lease market but it will come back around in time so long as this current wacko administration don't do another Obama 'cash for clunkers' deal.

Are there many off lease vehicles in your area? They are scarce in my area. In the west, we drive so many miles that leases get hit with excessive mileage charges; therefore leasing isn’t popular.

 

[kenmbz]

Looks like interest only low down payment loans have been back in play.
Same as slapped the NY and Fl real estate market.
5 year cycle until they move into balloon payments or principle added loans at double the monthlies.

Housing might have much larger inventory in a few years.

 

[Dftodd]

I was all set to buy a 2019 Ford Fusion Titanium off-lease for a few pennies over $20k back in 2020. I him-hawed on it for a week, and it sold just before I called the dealer. That was just about the time Covid was taking ahold. The same car today, going on four years older, is selling for about $25k. I decided I'd just hold onto my old GMC pickup.

Heck, that happened a week after we purchased our used GMC sierra. Dealer tried to offer me $8k over what we paid for it to get the truck back.

I said "Nope"

 

[Tinhack]

Housing might have much larger inventory in a few years.

As I said, not around here. Texas population, as a whole, is increasing faster than any other state. Current stats place it about 1,000 per day! And that doesn't count the nearly 2.5 million undocumented "migrants" in the past 12 months.

 

[MossRoad]

I'd characterize our food banks to look similar. If i saw nice cars there and people that owned or were paying on them, at the food bank, i'd probably take a dim view until i actually thought about how a newly unemployed family might look. I wouldn't expect them to sell their nice vehicle that they may need to get employment, for a lose, just because i looked sideways at them at the food bank.

I’ll tell you, my wife getting me to volunteer at the food bank was good for me. We haven’t been able to do it for quite a while now, due to them cancelling night hours because of the pandemic. She’d done it a few times through her employer and found the two of us could just go in evenings and pack lunches for kids. So one evening a week, we’d go in and pack bagged lunches. They had enough for two meals, and were distributed to the kids on Friday for the weekends. Two cereal bowls, two soups, two snacks and two drinks. Assembly line. Walk and pick. Tie and box. Between the two of us, we could do about 400 bags in two hours, so about 800 meals. They needed 2000 bags per week.

On occasion, we’d work the food pantry. The people had to have a ticket that was arranged through some social agency. Single or family. Then they’d line up and 6-8 people at a time could come into the grocery store-like area with a cart and pick out so many of each item. Meats, vegetables, fruits, grains, canned goods, etc. It was enough for each person to eat for a month. All donated goods. Some days we’d be the restockers and keep the shelves full all night. Some days, I’d be the boxer at the checkout, then help them carry the boxes to the cars.

Most of those people looked desperate. Their cars were crap (like my beater car, but it was their primary). Many were old, had physical and/or mental issues, and about 1/3 were younger. In all my years there, only 1 person was not extremely nice, and he had some obvious mental issues as well as a hand that was dripping puss and blood.

It reminds me every day how fortunate that I am, and if I have the ability to help someone in even the smallest way, I should. It could just as easily be me in their shoes.

 

[MossRoad]

Our food bank is huge! 82,000 square feet. They serve over 140 member agencies in 6 counties. In 2020 they did just shy of 12,000,000 pounds of food distributions.

There’s a need for it. I’m sure some people abuse it. I’m also sure most don’t.

Food Bank of Northern Indiana

feedindiana.org

 

[shooterdon]

When I stopped giving to the food bank, I ended up helping people that needed help directly.

In one case, I lent a young man $3500 to buy a vehicle so he could go to work and did not charge interest. When he made his last payment, he brought me a bottle of whiskey to celebrate. I let the same guy work on our vehicles. They were jobs I could do myself, but I hate wrenching so a win-win.

I do tractor work for two neighbors that need help and don't charge them. Gave a couple of guys ammunition for deer season when it was scarce and over $60/box. etc etc.

I should do more but at least I know the folks I help are deserving. BTW, I knew one family that used the food bank. They would complain about some of the stuff. Both smoked, drank, did some drugs, and ate out 5 times a week.

I am sure there are many people that really need help, but the few parasites spoil it.

 

[JasperFrank]

Over the last 26 years I've paid in 104,000 n prop tax. We have no children.

 

[JasperFrank]

I think you are talking over my head. Who would be buying the property and when?

It is a very simple proposition. Lets say you get your prop tax bill. We get ours every November. We have four options. Pay in full, Pay in thirds, don't pay at all, or object to the value assessment. Even if you object, you still have to at least pay to the first third of the tax. My State has a limit on how much higher your property can be assessed above the prior year. Some States don't have this limitation. And those people got tax bills that could be shockingly different than the prior year.
During the crash of 2008 though, the market value of our property was well under what it was assessed at. Since everyone else was in the same boat, the assessor's office was UN-reachable with so many folks asking for a re-evaluation to match the market conditions. Since land values always seem to rise, there was no functional legal mechanism to deal with this sudden drop in market value.
A lawyer friend and I, over many drinks and many afternoons, came up with what we thought could be a solution.
That solution being that we craft an initiative voters would have to pass, that would legally bind the assessed value AS the Market Value, that the county was then obligated to pay for the property, out right and in cash, if the owner so elected, which they could use to clear the morgages they were under.
Does this clarify the concept in some way?

 

[Oaktree]

Yep, I'm a country boy for sure. I don't abandon 19th century and early 20th century technology because it requires a little work. The nice thing about solutions invented before electricity is that they always work. My wood stove is a home utility that provides many kw equivalent of energy any time I need it, and makes use of nature's solar collectors to concentrate the fuel. When the power goes out, the comfort of my home doesn't change, and outdoors it turns into a Currier and Ives print.

One of the big selling points when I bought my present house was that it had a gravity-fed water system, and propane cookstove & hot water. Don't get city water pressure by a long shot, only ~20psi, but it's enough to do anything we need to do, including shower. The PO didn't have a woodstove, but that got put in first year we lived here. The house itself is almost 200 years old, and I don't think electricity came thru here until the 1930s, so for the first 100 years of this house's existence the residents got along just fine.

 

[ultrarunner]

For my brother too… deeded water rights from 1850 and gravity to the farm giving 33 psi and water is good.

Stories in era newspapers of droughts and the only sweet water in that part of the county was from that farm which gave water freely to rural neighbors in time of need.

The Spring is now well inside park boundaries but the claim stands and park maintains line to farm property line…

The homestead had a small buck stove my sister in law said it got to go and I said it will be gone today… I would love to have it… my eagerness gave her pause and now she loves being in front of the stove a on a damp rainy night burning oak storm fall from the farm…

 

[MossRoad]

Over the last 26 years I've paid in 104,000 n prop tax. We have no children.

I had to think about that. Over the last 35 years we’ve paid less than $30K in property taxes and we have 2 children. Small houses in lower middle class neighborhoods and farm land with no improvements don’t get taxed much here.

 

[Diggin It]

In the last 25 years, I've paid around $7,000 total in property taxes. As long as I stay on this place, I'll never pay more since the assessed value is now below the annual exemption level.

 

[ultrarunner]

Property tax with voter approved assessments would put you in the 15k annual property tax easily based on recent selling prices...

It is staggering that many recent buyers don't realize until faced with the bill...

 

[NorTracNY]

Please stop bragging about how little you all pay in property taxes. It's making this NYer cry.

 

[ultrarunner]

Is 15k little for 1200 square feet 1950's rancher in East Oakland California?

 

[Diggin It]

Then there's this ....

Valley homebuilders see alarming surge in homebuyers backing out of new home contracts​

The Business Journals|52 minutes ago
Experts say there's uncertainty in the market due to rising rates, inflation and homebuyers' job security.

 

[ultrarunner]

Then there's this ....

Valley homebuilders see alarming surge in homebuyers backing out of new home contracts​

The Business Journals|52 minutes ago
Experts say there's uncertainty in the market due to rising rates, inflation and homebuyers' job security.

It is very real and shows how easily sentiment can change...

The perception is now simply not a good time to buy...

The contrarian side of me has found the best time to buy is when most don't.

More inventory, less competition, better leverage, more concessions.

Plus... not everyone needs a bank mortgage... half my purchases seller financed which is often a win/win cutting out the middlemen...

Market in my part of the Bay Area stopped cold... daily flood of price reductions from sellers desperate to get out as opposed to holding back because prices were going up...

Real Estate has always been cyclical in my tenure...

 

[2manyrocks]

The increase in the median home price across the US doesn't look like a normal cyclical pattern. It looks like a run up in stock price. Either the fundamentals are there or they are not. Hard to see real estate prices holding after the stock market decline.

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States

 

[ultrarunner]

Real Estate is traded for various reasons... shelter, income, hedge against inflation, scarcity, etc.

Ive experienced several down cycles from property being boarded up and abandoned, 25% price drop to 80% in some East Oakland neighborhoods 2009-12.

So far it has always come back stronger dollar for dollar not withstanding inflation adjustment.

My 1922 neighborhood sold new for $2500... in 2007 sold for 500k and 2009 bank foreclosures 100k and this year 800k

Lots of money made and lost depending on particulars.

I found it interesting in the 70's popular thinking was Oakland was down for the count with the city selling boarded up homes for $1 if you moved in and made repairs over 5 years...

I can show you homes that went from $1 to 600k in over 40 years...