The Glut Cometh

[Oaktree]

I wonder how they'd feel about my place... sometimes on cloudy nights it's so dark I can't see my truck while walking up the driveway until I walk into it. The only sounds I hear at night are the refrigerator and freezer running, with an occasional truck going down the highway over 1/2 mile away.

When I first bought this place there was no power, I built an outhouse/generator shed and an 8x12 foot camp. The first night we spent in it my dog- who wasn't afraid of anything- spooked when an owl sounded off in the distance.

I'm not quite that far out, but it's equally dark here. In the winter I can make out lights from my nearest neighbor, but nothing when the leaves are out. My wife had a dog when we first moved here, and it would spaz out when it would hear coyotes on the ridge.
The PO had a street light provided by the power company on a pole on the property. One of the first things I did was to have that removed.

 

[Oaktree]

Last house 2,000sqft on two acres, property taxes were $950/ year

Mine are about 3x that on a 1600 sf house on 12 acres, but keep in mind that we don't have either a sales or income tax in my state. To get an accurate picture you need to take all taxes into account.

 

[arto98607]

I wonder how they'd feel about my place... sometimes on cloudy nights it's so dark I can't see my truck while walking up the driveway until I walk into it. The only sounds I hear at night are the refrigerator and freezer running, with an occasional truck going down the highway over 1/2 mile away.

When I first bought this place there was no power, I built an outhouse/generator shed and an 8x12 foot camp. The first night we spent in it my dog- who wasn't afraid of anything- spooked when an owl sounded off in the distance.

Wow, outhouse/generator shed combo is an interesting concept I had never heard of before!

 

[Jstpssng]

Wow, outhouse/generator shed combo is an interesting concept I had never heard of before!

I didn't run the generator in the outhouse, it was just a place to secure it under cover while I wasn't there. Once I built and had electricity run in I had a flange welded onto the generator muffler so that I could run a piece of flex pipe out the wall if needed, but my power never seems to go out so never followed through with the idea. Of course by then I wasn't using the outhouse.

Two years ago I sunk a plastic drum on the tree line near my garden and moved the outhouse up there, now I don't have to run 1/4 mile down to the house if the "urge" arises. Also nice to have if I'm dirty and don't want to track into the house.

 

[NorTracNY]

Another member from your state posted how much his taxes were a while back. I almost messed my pants the shock was so great! I believe that it was about half the appraised value of my property.
I hope that you get something in return.

I guess the news in NY doesn't get broadcast to the rest of the country with our current media. I do get something in return for my property taxes.

I get a school that only does one thing well. Its teaches patriotism. It doesn't focus on teaching basic skills. It doesn't do well state wide or even nationally, but it talks about being "world class" at board meetings. The administration doesn't support the teachers. When they shut down for the virus, they actually stopped teachers that they found out were still instructing remotely! There is no discipline at all. My kids have told me multiple times about teachers deciding that they didn't feel like teaching that day, so the just search the web and go Amazon shopping. I had one kid text me from school (I wouldn't be happy about this except the message made it clear why) that she wasn't learning anything from the teacher anymore.

I also get increased crime and murders in my area. The "bail reform" that was past a few years ago allows people to get an appearance ticket for most crimes. I believe there was a story of a bank robber that the state police had to ask the feds to help. After robbing 3 banks and getting 3 appearance tickets, they needed the Feds to arrest him so he's stop.

First they had the un-SAFE act. Now with the recent Supreme Court ruling, they have responded with even more insane laws. A potato gun is now classified as a firearm. A CC permit is now meaningless. If a friend came to my house and the police showed up and discovered that she was carrying they would arrest her with a felony. This is because I don't have a sign posted on my property saying that it's ok. It wouldn't matter if I said it was ok. I must have the sign since my home is private property. It's not totally clear, but it appears that I'll need to take training every 3 years and renew my license or it's gone.

 

[Diggin It]

^^^^ Most of that post doesn't belong in this thread, or anywhere outside the Front Porch.


Meanwhile ....

U.S. industrials stare at profit squeeze from excess inventory, weak demand​

Reuters on MSN.com|7 days ago
U.S. manufacturers are likely to see a hit to their quarterly profit in the second half of the year as higher prices for everything from light bulbs to air conditioners take a toll on consumer spending.

Retail's 'Dark Side': As Inventory Piles Up, Liquidation Warehouses Are Busy​

New York Times|2 days ago
Consumers are buying fewer discretionary goods and returning more. To clear their shelves, retailers are selling to liquidators at steep discounts.

 

[/pine]

So what...?....who really gives a crap about the retail industry...consumers will buy what they want and what they can afford...it's just click bait news...

What's really important is the wasteful spending by the government...it has a much more realistic effect on the populous than greedy retailers...

 

[kenmbz]

Wife looked up the profits on one of our supermarket chains which claimed they had to raise prices due to staffing etc.
Their profit is up massively and the prices have not come down.
It's just greed at work.

 

[Jstpssng]

they had to raise prices due to staffing

Staffing? Do you mean those "self checkouts" which always seem to make you wait for a real person to find time to come help you? I am finding myself frequenting the smaller grocery stores more and more. They may not have the selection of the big supermarkets, but I don't waste time standing there feeling stupid because their machine didn't find a code... again.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

So what...?....who really gives a crap about the retail industry...consumers will buy what they want and what they can afford...it's just click bait news...

What's really important is the wasteful spending by the government...it has a much more realistic effect on the populous than greedy retailers...

I was thinking about that this morning. A common refrain during economic downturns is that consumer spending will lead us out of recession. High inflation will kneecap that. It's hard to spend when your dollar doesn't go as far as it used to. I think the floatation device right now is people realizing that the price tomorrow will be higher, so buy it now.

I also saw an article that mortgage rates are drifting back toward 5%, even while the Fed is raising rates. There is so much excess money in the system that it far exceeds that available assets. Mortgage backed securities are the big money equivalent of a savings account - they don't even keep up with inflation, but at least they hold their value fairly well. Think of it as retail banking for rich folks.

As attractive as it is to blame gummint for our woes, the fact is that consumer spending far outstrips any other spending, including defense. The thing both have in common is that they will be worthless 20 years from now. I got gas Friday, and there was a guy filling a 1-ton hauling a long trailer loaded with two personal watercraft. The only thing that will have value 20 years from now is maybe the trailer. The rest of it is scrapyard fodder. Expensive entertainment. By contrast, the same rig except with a cattle trailer goes past my place several times a week on its way to the slaughterhouse. That's a business investment. The truck will still end up at the scrapyard, but not before it generates several times its value in meat.

I learned in '73 that you can never trust the economy. Capitalism is a metastable system, that runs fine until something tips it over the edge. Then things deteriorate until price matches value. Thanks to consumer panic, prices normally dip substantially below true value, which is profitable. You can pick up assets for less than they are worth. That's when you start hearing the Deflation Apocalypse propaganda. The rich people don't want things to be cheaper. They are happy to cut manufacturing corners to make things worth less, but they are leveraged against their assets. If they have to meet a margin call, it can wipe them out. Remember Lehman Brothers?