There will be more domestic production in 2023 than 2019, and more than any other year since 1920. Oil production is a cyclical business as wells dry up, new wells are drilled, and the price of crude oil changes. There was a decline in production from the high of November 2019 but it started before any change in policy or election results were known. Since February 2021 domestic production has actually been on a steady rise. From just a year ago domestic production is up over a million barrels a day using the 4-week average, an 8.7% increase.
Wells are still being drilled in the Permian Basin just as fast as the production company can get a permit to drill from the state and a drill rig becomes available. The federal government does not have a say on what drilling happens on private land. And domestic production on federal property only accounts for about 25% of domestic production.
The greatest impact is that the midstream capacity to move product to the refineries and the downstream capacity to refine oil has not kept up with the increase in domestic upstream production of light sweet crude. US refineries were built to refine heavy sour crude, which yields more product per barrel refined, making it more profitable. That is why some West Texas Intermediate crude is shipped overseas to be refined and then the finished products are imported back. As more refineries come online that can refine light sweet crude, those numbers will change. And the midstream capacity is being increased to move product. We just received another ROW offer to put in a 48" line down one side of our property in West Texas, one of several this year.
Here are the historical average daily domestic production numbers in 1,000 bbl/day averages. As you can see so far, every month reported in 2023 is higher than the corresponding month in 2019.
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