If you have an inspection camera that attaches to your smart phone, you can probably find a way to look at the shift fork and the 2 gears that control whether the front axle is engaged. They're cheap and worth their weight in gold for a million things. Go on Amazon and search for "DEPSTECH Wireless Endoscope", that's the one I bought but there's lots of other ones to pick from. I see two ways you might get the camera in there. The hydraulic filter on the right side of the tractor just below the 4WD lever is below the shift fork and the gear that slides back and forth. The HST filter on the left side of the tractor is also close to that area and might be a way in if you take the filter off. Other possible ways in are the hydraulic oil dipstick opening just in front of the seat, and the hydraulic oil fill opening between the 3pt arms. If you drain the hydraulic oil you might get the camera up through the drain hole, and strain the fluid and look for metal contamination. That would be bad news but would probably confirm that either the shift fork or bearing for that gear has gotten chewed up. You could also cut the HST filter apart and check for metal particles.
One of the other posters mentioned the detent, I can't find it in the shop manual but there must be one and that would be a good place to check. It looks like there's a bolt right above the 4WD lever, if you've lived a good clean life that might be the detent ball and spring. If you take them out (hopefully without dropping them) you can check their condition and also possibly get the camera in that hole. That would allow you to look directly at the shaft.
I've been out plowing snow with mine, there is a distinct detent for both 2WD and 4WD and I can feel it drop in. It's not quite as pronounced as the detent on the float position of the loader. So if you don't feel that, probably pursue the detent as the source of the problem.
The fact that your original problem was related to a bent lever might indicate something happened to force the 4WD into gear. I've run into branches that forced a lever to change position. I'm also embarrassed to say the back of my coat has gotten hooked on the PTO lever when I get off the tractor and I've hung there like a knucklehead before I could do my break dancing routine and wiggle free. Maybe something like that happened to the 4WD lever and did some kind of damage.