Yes I am terrified what could happen.
I am surprised that we have not seen another chemical attack in the six years since the Aum Shinrikyo attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995 with Sarin.
I am more frightened by Biological Weapons. The use of Biological weapons has far worse consequences and unfortunately the technology is widely available. We can expect that many experts in development and production have left Russia since the break up of the Soviet Union.
I doubt that anyone could read 'Biohazard : The Chilling True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World-Told from the Inside by the Man Who Ran It', (by Ken Alibek) or 'Plague Wars : The Terrifying Reality of Biological Warfare', (by Tom Mangold, and Jeff Goldberg)
and not be terrified of the possibilities.
The Soviet Union had a huge program of Biological weapons production and Russia still has massive capabilities. The Soviet Union maintained stockpiles far beyond the obscene: 20 tons of fresh smallpox virus and 20 tons of fresh Anthrax spores. Yes TONS! Anthrax, plague, tularemia, and glanders were genetically engineered for antibiotic resistance. A few grams of any of these could supply a terrorist group with enough to contaminate a city. Smallpox could spread through the world quickly. (The immunizations we took in the early sixties have worn off by now.) How well are the Soviet stockpiles guarded. Are these soldiers paid regularly or do they go unpaid for months like other branches of the Soviet military. Have they found a way to supplement their salary?
International inspection will not help. After the Gulf War Iraq was under the closest surveillance ever. This surveillance was far more intrusive than would be tolerated by any country not recently defeated in war. UNSCOM roamed through the country, yet the Iraqi Biological weapons program was not detected until a defector disclosed the details of the program. UNSCOM had already issued a report that there were no remaining Weapons of Mass Destruction left in Iraq. With the information provided by the defector UNSCOM confirmed that a Biological Weapons program existed that they had been unable to detect.
We now know about the Biological Weapons programs of
Japan (during WW2),
Soviet Union/Russia,
United States (program terminated by Nixon)
Rhodesia (program terminated before black rule)
South Africa (program terminated before black rule)
Iraq
North Korea
Aum Shinrikyo (program captured after the Sarin subway attack)
I don't know what solution is possible to prevent a Biological attack. Massive retaliation will deter a rational state, but what do we do with a crazy cult or group of suicidal terrorists?
see
http://www.house.gov/hasc/testimony/106thcongress/99-10-20alibek.htm for Ken Alibek's testimony in House hearings on Biological weapons.
see
http://www.emergency.com/1999/alibek99.htm for a Q and A with Alibek
see
http:// [url]http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/plague [/url] for information on a PBS Frontline episode based on Albek's information
Ed