So if we take at face value the 'rise and fall' sequence from the article I linked to earlier, where does China fall on the list? If they are the 'next great' they should be working their way through the list per the article.
The List: (from
the-rise-and-fall-of-america: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance)
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back to bondage.
Are they in the 'Bondage to Spiritual Faith' step? Bondage I can understand, they are coming out from under Communism. But China is (I believe) mostly secular, are they suddenly going to 'get religion'? I did a little searching for information on rising spirituality in China and came up with this article:
The connection between Religion and Growth in China
Which mainly talks about some research between religion and economic growth and how it might apply to China since they are Confucian and not really religious. Essentially (if I read things correctly) having wide-spread religious beliefs spurs economic growth but actual church attendance inhibits it. I also came across this article:
Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.
Which talks about a 'crisis of faith' in China and has a quote from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao where he "cited a spate of widely reported food safety scandals in recent years as example for ''degradation of morality''". I don't know about you but given the food scares in China, the uncertainty of the food and other items they export (heavy metals etc) I'd be scared to have to buy and eat just Chinese made food. So is their 'spiritual faith' step really just about this quote from that article?:
"Apparently, to restore social morality and integrity, China needs to solve its ''crisis of faith''. To solve this crisis, new ideology must be established to fill the current ''vacuum''."
The vacuum being ideology on how to make money but not at the expense of the degradation of morality and loss of integrity. And once they sort out that it is not just about the pursuit of money at the expense of other people but something more along the lines of "Do onto others" will that give them the basis for the next step which is 'great courage'? That as a people they will believe in themselves and their country enough: 'we can do this, let's go!' and become a superpower?