How long before Compact Diesels are obsolete?

[MiserableOldFart]

Let me know if this is the wrong place to put this, but IMHO, the advantages of electric powered tractors in the smaller sizes (under, say, 100hp) will be so massive that even though cars are ahead in the development, new small electric tractors will begin taking over the market somewhere around 2025, and by 2030, they will have made diesels in the under 60 hp class obsolete, for the following reasons:
1. Diesel engines and the various transmissions are extremely expensive to design and produce compared to electric drive trains.
2. The limitation on continuous use of electric tractors - probably 4 hours or so at a clip before requiring recharge, on the lower priced machines won't be a problem to most small tractor owners. For those for whom it is a problem, more batteries can be put in the tractor.
3. No more lugging and pouring cans of diesel is not a nothing-burger.
4. The problem of battery weight in cars is an advantage in most tractors, as it can increase both traction and stability if properly situated.
5. Lower maintenance costs and full control of speed without many gallons of hydro oil for locomotion.
6. In tractors with loaders, portable supplemental battery packs could potentially charged while the tractor is working, and added to the loader when using PTO implements, or carried on the 3pt. when doing loader work.
7. CUTs are not really screamingly noisy but the electric tractors' quiet will be appreciated.
8. Prices will be competitive with diesels by 2025 and will be significantly less expensive than diesels by 2030.
9. An electric tractor charged from home solar or wind will appeal to the "independent" types, like most of us here.
10. If made properly, repairs to an Electric Tractor should be much easier and require much less technical knowledge than compact diesels.

Disclaimer: I am invested in electric vehicles, electric tractors and solar panel makers.

 

[ovrszd]

Way beyond our lifetimes and our kid's lifetimes.

First we have to see alternative energies efficient beyond government subsidies. Haven't saw that yet. That's a generation away.

 

[Erik M]

IDK, my tractor is 40 yrs old and paid for, the tractor you describe is going to be crazy $$$ for 20 years. At some point you are correct, but unlikely to be soon.

 

[cqaigy2]

I think you might be correct, especially considering the large number of compact and sub compact tractors being sold now. Most are for what i would call non-farming uses, just a couple hours at most. A lot of reasons to go electric, like you mentioned, much less maintenance, less localized pollution etc . Full disclaimer, i don't own an electric tractor or vehicle. I do own some electric tools, some even have batteries and are completely cordless.

 

[sea2summit]

Let me know if this is the wrong place to put this, but IMHO, the advantages of electric powered tractors in the smaller sizes (under, say, 100hp) will be so massive that even though cars are ahead in the development, new small electric tractors will begin taking over the market somewhere around 2025, and by 2030, they will have made diesels in the under 60 hp class obsolete, for the following reasons:
1. Diesel engines and the various transmissions are extremely expensive to design and produce compared to electric drive trains. However the cost of batteries capable of powering a 3-4k or larger machine running a mower/chipper/blower while pumping hydraulic fluid for loader/etc are more expensive and bulky (think about the size of forklift batteries that do nothing but roll around on concrete all day and don't run additional accessories)
2. The limitation on continuous use of electric tractors - probably 4 hours or so at a clip before requiring recharge, on the lower priced machines won't be a problem to most small tractor owners. For those for whom it is a problem, more batteries can be put in the tractor. Four hours of mowing is still a lot of battery, and while some may look past a limit of 3/4/6/8 hours how many customers wont? I typically use mine all day on saturdays when I'm doing work.
3. No more lugging and pouring cans of diesel is not a nothing-burger. Get a pump? Hit the gym? Assuming a 25HP electric engine is going to draw 18.5 KW/H that's about $2.25 /hr in electricity per hour of operation where I live which is more than my BX cost in fuel
4. The problem of battery weight in cars is an advantage in most tractors, as it can increase both traction and stability if properly situated. True for weight, maybe not for bulk?
5. Lower maintenance costs and full control of speed without many gallons of hydro oil for locomotion.What is the basis for this assumption as used in something like a tractor?
6. In tractors with loaders, portable supplemental battery packs could potentially charged while the tractor is working, and added to the loader when using PTO implements, or carried on the 3pt. when doing loader work. I would do some math on how much those batteries would weigh, I don't think you'd want that much on the FEL of a compact tractor but I could be wrong.
7. CUTs are not really screamingly noisy but the electric tractors' quiet will be appreciated. Could be beneficial in some applications for sure.
8. Prices will be competitive with diesels by 2025 and will be significantly less expensive than diesels by 2030.Prove this to me, as already said this technology can't survive without significant subsidies right now.
9. An electric tractor charged from home solar or wind will appeal to the "independent" types, like most of us here.So how many panels/how much money would it take to generate 100 kw/h per day to operate your tractor for four hours? I seriously don't know but I think if it's easy I'll do that for my house:thumbsup:
10. If made properly, repairs to an Electric Tractor should be much easier and require much less technical knowledge than compact diesels. The parts are plug and play so yes the repairs are easier but that's because you are replacing whoe components. How much will that cost?

Disclaimer: I am invested in electric vehicles, electric tractors and solar panel makers.

Disclaimer I am researching/writing requirement documents applicable to this technology for 60k plus tracked vehicles

 

[TimberHole]

I would venture a guess that the majority of compact tractor owners only use them occasionally. In other words, these tractors are not working every day. The result is many of us, if not most, wont be buying a new fangled tractor!

 

[Hay Dude]

Make the batteries wheel weights :laughing:

 

[4570Man]

Probably never until you can put a thousand gallon diesel equivalent on a truck and dump it off in a few minutes. The majority of equipment works away from power. I know you’re probably going to say solar panels but they’d have to be huge.

 

[rademamj1]

Attended a conference on future power needs and projections for the American economy. That was three years ago, and there was much argument of the future. Academics seemed to think everything will just work out nicely with good politics. The Industry representatives believed we are headed to major chaos and a major shortfall in electrical power generation when our transportation grid goes electric.

Eventually we will get to where trucks and tractors are electric. Despite politicans wanting to limit oil and gas use due to climate change, Liquid hydrocarbons(ie Diesel) are expected to see major world wide shortages in just 25 years due to depletion of the worlds existing oil fields. This is hardly ever mentioned as a dominate reason to switch to electric. Natural Gas has much larger resources available, but we expect to see that natural gas production will be limited to mainly large scale electric power generation.

I do see most nations creating diesel stockpiling for military and agricultural purposes. Small scale Nuclear power will become significantly more important for electric power generation. Expect to see electricity becoming a rationed commodity in this nation once we have an all electric transport system. Solar power, due to inefficiency will not be able to drive the world economy, however offshore wind will become a major source of electric power for this nation and many nations.

These were some of the takeaways from that conference.

 

[shooterdon]

I am 70. Have a fairly new tractor with 145 hours on it. It will not matter.

Plus I want a cab with A/C and heat. More battery sucking “needs”.