What is the best place for weather predictions, 10 days to several months?

[newbury]

It seems every place has a weather REPORTER but good predictors are hard to come by.

I've been following the NWS Climate Predicton Center. I am especially interested in the 2 week out and monthly forecasts.

But without collecting a lot of forecasts and then comparing them to what actually happens it's difficult to tell what predictors are good and what ones are just throwing darts.

For example I thought a month ago NWS was predicting cold winter in Va and Ms, with a cold January, now it looks like they don't know or it will be average. I'm especially concerned about January thru February because I've exposed water pipes that froze last year, first time ever.

So does anyone know of a site that collects predictions and compares them to outcomes?

 

[EddieWalker]

Local Weather from AccuWeather.com - Superior Accuracy is the one I go to every morning. I've followed most of them and this is the only one I go to anymore.


Eddie

 

[downsizingnow48]

I use the Weather Underground Iphone app. Reliable in coastal Virginia, central California, and the California north coast. Also followed Accuweather for a while, equally reliable far as I could tell.

 

[/pine]

I rely on the NWS...long range forecasts are mostly just educated guesses...the NWS does a good job of constantly updating their local forecasts...

Major market network affiliates (local weather) often have better/more advanced equipment than the cable WX channels...

 

[newbury]

To emphasize - I'm looking for some place that has statistics on how often they are right when they predict it 2 weeks to 2 months in advance.

 

[randy41]

American Weather
you should address your question on a weather board. i think that the models they use are tweaked making comparative data inaccurate.

 

[All In A Days Work]

X2 What Eddie said. I use Local Weather from AccuWeather.com - Superior Accuracy It seems pretty close on the short term stuff. Long term seems to be hit and miss.

 

[MtnViewRanch]

Here is THE most accurate that I know of. 88% accurate sine 1978.

 

[Coyote machine]

Personally, I'd be more concerned about what I could do to mitigate the exposed pipes from freezing again. What if anything have you done to change the outcome of the freezing?

 

[Buppies]

There is a forecaster in Richmond who is pretty good long range man but a lot of his info is on his paid site. The facebook side is still free. I have listed him on the good morning thread several times there are others as well but will requie you to read and have an understanding of the terms they use. This winter so far has confused a lot of them because the signals showed one thing and then changed about three weeks ago. If you are interested you can PM me and I'll share what I have/know. I have followed them for 13 years and while wrong sometimes at least you know in advance what's possibly coming.