What's going on with wheat?

[sea2summit]

Just fear or is there a bad forecast for this year?

 

[Snobdds]

Pain ahead...

 

[kenmbz]

Don't we usually ship huge amounts of wheat to that R country?

 

[Vernorz]

Ukraine is a very large wheat producer. I expect the demand in other parts of the world will be pretty high and the U.S. will be exporting quite a bit of wheat this year as a result.

 

[MapleLeafFarmer]

Russia is the worlds largest wheat exporter.
Ukraine is the worlds 5th largest exporter.

Combined they export 2X as much as the USA does..... 34% of the worlds exports !!!

if war continues and financial sanctions increase and/or Russia takes over the independent country of the Ukraine, N.A. wheat farmers will make out like gangbusters with higher world prices. Consumers will have to pay more.

 

[sea2summit]

Russia is the worlds largest wheat exporter.
Ukraine is the worlds 5th largest exporter.

Combined they export 2X as much as the USA does..... if war continues and financial sanctions increase farmers will make out like gangbusters with higher world prices.

Ouch. That would do it.

 

[5030]

Dang, there goes the price of my Wheaties...

 

[5030]

Pain ahead...

From what I can see, the pain is already here. Just gonna get worse.

 

[Torvy]

Ukraine is a very large wheat producer. I expect the demand in other parts of the world will be pretty high and the U.S. will be exporting quite a bit of wheat this year as a result.

It will not change demand, but supply will be significantly lower. The good news is that farmers who plant spring wheat in the US and other countries may still have time to plant more acres...and/or other farmers may be able to plant wheat instead of something else. (Lots of variables though)

 

[RSKY]

Farmers planting more wheat will mean less ground planted in corn and more ground with beans following the wheat. This is gonna screw up ALL the markets for a couple years. Fortunes will be made and lost gambling on the futures market.

RSKY

 

[sea2summit]

It will not change demand, but supply will be significantly lower. The good news is that farmers who plant spring wheat in the US and other countries may still have time to plant more acres...and/or other farmers may be able to plant wheat instead of something else. (Lots of variables though)

Seeds will probably be a big limiting factor if they try to get more now I bet.

 

[Hay Dude]

Not just seeds….fertilizer is a real biggie
Its “only“ up from $290/ton to $850/ton in less than a year….
….and climbing.
Except for specific elements, I have basically gone to all free fairly organic fertilizers. That is saving me 10’s of thousands in the last few years and ahead.

 

[bmaverick]

EZ-PZ, just got Keto or Gluten FREE. No need for dependence of wheat anymore.

Since 2017 and forward, we have entered the Grand Solar Minimum. Many countries are stopping their exports of Wheat, Barley, Rye, Corn and Oats globally. Few countries have already halted rice exports too. This is to allow them to have food for their own people and not for global consumption.

Several countries have called upon their citizens to grow their own foods due to constrained imports not being there for them.

Our winters will be cold and dry for most with blizzards scattered abroad. Summers will be short and heat intensive that plants burn. The solar cycle minimum is the hardest on bio-organic life of plants, trees and things that grow green. The photosynthesis process is more out of whack now.

Much of this is already documented on the web. The ICEAGE Farmer broadcast reports each week shows how the global food supply keeps shrinking before those who are watching.

Grow food like your life depends on it. We are nearly at the long bottom of this solar cycle that could last 20 to 40 years. Sharpen your gardening skills and other food merit skills. Soon it could take a whole days' wages to earn a loaf of bread. Toss in the on going fuel crisis, farmers WILL NOT PLANT due to costly fuel as the crop return will not support it.

 

[dmccarty]

Natural gas is used to make fertilizer. Natural gas prices are high because countries are shutting down coal, oil and nuke power plants, and trying to depend on intermittent solar and wind power, backed up by generators using natural gas. When the sun don't shine, and the wind don't blow, the natural gas must flow. This happened in the later part of 2021 and caused natural gas prices to spike.

I read news sites in the UK, NL and Ireland and their energy prices are skyrocketing. One of the countries was talking about a 39% price increase for power. The UK had over two dozen power companies go bankrupt because they are not allowed to charge the customer enough to cover the increased cost of natural gas. Farmers in all three countries are worried about fertilizer prices as they are in the US. Higher fertilizer prices are going to mean higher food costs across the board. Lets not even talk the higher costs of diesel. One country was already removing some taxes on road fuel to try to lower fuel prices.

One of the countries has been pushing to better insulate structures to lower energy usage and cost. The problem is that the cost of many of the suggestions will take many decades to have a payoff. One was over 70 years to a pay off. Me thinks those long term payoffs means those energy saving measures are not going to get down.

One of the surprises to me, was that before Putin's War, natural gas prices were so high that both UK plants that make fertilizer from natural gas shutdown. They simply could not afford the price of natural gas. The UK government is now having to subsidize the operations of the plants. The surprise, besides only two plants in the UK, was that these same plants also make CO2, and CO2 is used to slaughter livestock. No CO2, no slaughtering of livestock, and thus no meat in the stores. The livestock producers would end up having to kill the animals that they could not afford to keep, and burn/bury them some where on their land, simply because their was no CO2 to process the animals due to high natural gas prices.... Who would have thunk it? Well, not the policy makers....

If Putin's War is not ended real soon now, these higher food prices are going to cause instability in some/many countries. Egypt is very likely, as is Turkey, and others. Turkey's economy was all but destroyed before Putin's War. Turkey gets quite a few tourists from Russia, as well as food from Russia and Ukraine, so things are going to get much, much worse in Turkey if Putin's War continues. Poeple in Turkey were already lining up for free/subsidized bread before Putin's War. Then they had huge wild fires that took out quite a bit of food production last year. Turkey is going to really suffer if food prices stay high as will other places in the world. That turmoil is likely to move outside it's borders...

Later,
Dan

 

[jmc]

Russia is the worlds largest wheat exporter.
Ukraine is the worlds 5th largest exporter.

Combined they export 2X as much as the USA does..... 34% of the worlds exports !!!

if war continues and financial sanctions increase and/or Russia takes over the independent country of the Ukraine, N.A. wheat farmers will make out like gangbusters with higher world prices. Consumers will have to pay more.

Deere pulled out of Russia and Belarus today. Don't know if that includes Deere parts.

 

[/pine]

As a wheat farmer, I worry about having these strange headaches all the time...

but my doctor said it's just my grains.