When will it fall?

Richard · Feb 10, 2016

I thought I'd post this for kicks & grins.

This tree is just a skip down the road from my house & mailbox. It is on TVA property and is leaning away from the road. (I always try to notice a leaner towards the road because in a storm, it usually means I'm the one out in the weather, clearing the obstruction from the roadway!)

I don't know where the critical angle is.... but you can see a lump in the ground where the root ball is slowly being pushed up.

This is sort of like watching a train wreck in slowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww motion!

I've even thought about taking the backhoe and pushing or digging a bit to expedite the process. This tree will fall without damaging anything. I just get nervous that by an odd chance, a trail walker or deer might be near (the trail is nowhere near this tree so I'm just being a bit over-cautious)

I was thinking it would be fun to make a contest and the winner who picked the correct day would win a prize or something....

wngsprd · Feb 10, 2016

I've seen some like this go for years and never topple. But glad it is leaning away from most potential danger.

How long has it been leaning like that?

Well, just for kicks, I'll pick July 4th.

Thomas · Feb 10, 2016

I have feeling the tree w/the bark damage next to road will hit the ground before the leaner.

wngsprd.
"I've seen some like this go for years and never topple"
I agree.

10/17 I am picking.

300UGUY · Feb 10, 2016

A road commission guy told me that the number is 17 degrees. They may go for many years, but if it exceeds 17 degrees, it will fall. I was told that after seeing a healthy oak tree fall over one spring. Apparently, when it leafs out before the roots are no longer dormant, they will fall over if the exceed 17 degrees.

MF283 · Feb 10, 2016

I've got one on the back 40 with a lot more lean than that, just noticed it the other day while checking fences from recent storm. It poses no danger to the fence, maybe a horse, if it leafs out this spring, i'll cut it next fall or just wait & see how long it does take to fall.

Ronnie

Wagtail · Feb 10, 2016

You'll never know when it does fall... unless you're there for the event.

It won't make a sound otherwise.

ovrszd · Feb 10, 2016

Good one Wagtail!!!!!

That tree doesn't appear to be near falling. But pictures are deceiving.

Now this tree on the other hand......

It's been like this for 66 years that I know of. The mighty Oak.

Here's another pic of the same tree. Taken in 1949. Find the car in the photo. Then up and just a pinch to the right, just past the end of the pond dam. It's already leaning to the left in this photo.

Eric Salop · Feb 11, 2016

I am hopeless at trying to predict when trees will finally fall, they always do the opposite of what I expect, but if it's a guessing game, I'm in - I'll say the last day of September.

Like ovrszd's oak, this old ash tree has been growing at crazy angles for many years. It has been happily growing up, across and up again.

I kept on pollarding the new growth every 7 years or so for firewood and to keep the weight down. As I get older it gets more difficult to climb up there, but now I don't have to any more. When I came to have a look at it last week I found the trunk was starting to rot at the base. It is a great place for children to play, so not much option other than to take it down.

ovrszd · Feb 11, 2016

Eric, I'm rooting for my old Oak. Every Summer when it leaves out I check the base for any kind of movement. I haven't taken any measurements but maybe I should to track the progress. I'll pick a few dates on the calendar this year and check the trunk with an angle finder.

I tell all the Grandkids to not play under it or climb it. Being right by the pond it's an attraction for them.

Can you imagine the pressure forces on the root system and the trunk base???