Well I was going to figure the surface area of like sized 3cyl vs a 4cyl but I can find two. The biggest "current production" 3cyl I could find was kubotas 111 CI engine. And the smallest 4cyl was 122CI by various MFG's.
But I will point out that there is a lot more to thermal efficency than just surface area of the cylinder. And even two 4cyl may not have the same surface area. It just depends on the bore and stroke. Yes, shorter stroke will minimize the increase in surface area shown by greater #s of cylinders.
But thermal efficiency also has to do with thermal mass, how thick the casting is in certain areas, the coolant jacket placement, efficency of the cooling system. Theres just a lot more to it than surface area.Yes, lots of tuning tricks, but thermal efficiency is a hard one to keep as good with low displacement cyls. Think of the larger proportional area of "cold" cylinder wall. Where you get real benefits is better breathing to higher rpm. Less air pumping losses both above and below the pistons.
If you took 2 engines of the same HP rating, with the same CI, both naturally aspirated, and ran them at the same RPM, I doubt you would even notice a ounce per hour fuel difference. Theres just way to much other things that effect how a tractor uses fuel. I know you mean 2 differently configured rather than identical engines. You would want to be outputting equal HP so rpm would probably be different. Im thinking the engine with the hotter exhaust would use a little less fuel.