I am providing some additional information to those of you who are scoring in your labs or at home.
My General Theory of Delusion predicts the number of delusions Dave will have during a week. That number is a random variable that follows a Poisson distribution with mean lambda. Based on his previous behavior, I have estimated lambda to be 14. I have tabulated predicted probabilities and they are shown below. To explain, the first column represents the number of potential observed delusions,k. The PMF column shows the probability that Dave will experience exactly k delusions during the week. To illustrate, the probability that Dave experiences exactly 14 delusions this week is 0.105989. The CDF column shows the probability that Dave will experience k or fewer delusions this week. The probability that Dave will experience 14 or fewer delusions this week is 0.570437. The probability that he will experience more than 14 delusions is 1-0.570437 = 0.429563
This is a "blind" test in that I have performed all of my work with a bag over my head and I will maintain that condition for the rest of the week. I would ask that Dave do the same so that we will have a "double-blind" test. I would also request that Dave not change his medication levels during the course of the experiment.
Scientifically yours,
Steve
