Solar Flare coming Sept. 13th

   / Solar Flare coming Sept. 13th #4  
Good point.

Apparently the eventual severity of these cannot be predicted?

They can to an extent. This is an X class flare with a CME, but nothing like the "carrington event" of 1859.. So don't go dig a hole just yet, but there can and will be some radio disruption. I noticed that the D layer absorption with way up in the northern latitudes.
 
   / Solar Flare coming Sept. 13th #5  
Here is some more information... do not panic!:)

Solar Update
Here is the SolarHam space weather update for the morning of September 11th. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was strong. The largest and most noteworthy event was without a doubt the long duration X1.6 solar flare observed around region 2158 at 17:45 UTC. The flare was associated with Type II (3750 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions, a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) lasting nearly an hour and measuring 1300 solar flux units, along with a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The majority of plasma appears to have a northward trajectory, however a still significant portion looks to be on line with our planet. Minor (G1) to major (G2-G3) geomagnetic storming will be possible within 24-48 hours thanks to this CME, in conjunction with an earlier CME associated with the M4.5 flare on Sept 9. Another isolated moderate to strong solar flare will remain a possibility today with regions 2157 and 2158 being the most likely source. All other visible sunspots are currently stable. A new sunspot in formation is now turning into view off the east limb, but is not yet considered a threat for strong solar flares. Energetic protons streaming past Earth remain above the minor (S1) radiation storm threshold this morning. These levels could persist until the expected passage of the CME events of Sept 9 and 10.
 
   / Solar Flare coming Sept. 13th
  • Thread Starter
#6  
Thanks James. I'd not run across those rating systems before.

Here is a NOAA chart describing G1 to G5 geomagnetic storms:
NOAA Space Weather Scales

G2-3 doesn't sound too bad by comparison.
 

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