Equipment Failure

   / Equipment Failure #11  
News flash! EVERYTHING will eventually fail, AND, any given item is subject to a MTBF [Mean Time Between Failure] statistical curve- you could have something on the "left" side of the curve or you could have something on the "right" side of the curve. Warranties are essential in addressing what are otherwise hard to control events- early failures, stuff that came out on the left side of the curve: yes, EVERY manufacture is aware of statistical curves and that they WILL have to cover for any lefthanded-ness- it's just an accepted fact of things. Sometimes one tends to end up with a convergence of items that were on the right side of the curve, that's a bonus!

As mentioned, VW DID program a kind of failure. One could say that THEY, VW, actually programmed in their OWN failure! So, yes, mucking around with software to modify parameters is how everything works (which is why I once spent time forcing my local county to NOT go with computerized voting systems! [of course,, there have been and most likely will continue to be, computers at the back-end tallying things]). With a big enough lawsuit just about any code can be prised out (unless the CIA has its own handiwork embedded in it). Fewer companies are going even contemplate computer trickery post VW's scandal.

But... speaking of electronics, computers AND VW, my VW TDIs (alh engines) are 18 years old and are, with the exception of things like door lock control modules and a case of broken hatch wiring, without issue.

I do believe in hedging, in which case I have non-computerized counterparts.
 
   / Equipment Failure #12  
I don't think the makers design their product to fail directly after the warranty ends; but any modern manufacturer makes a product with a defined product design life. Engineers could design equipment to last darn near forever; however the product would cost so much no one would be able to afford them. (in my opinion this is why you still see so many ol' 8N's and 9N's still working--partially due to design partially due to the aftermarket)

The products we see today are compromises between engineers and actuaries (bean counters). If they know they will warranty for 2 years and on average a person puts of 400 hours a year that would put average use at 800 hours over the life of the warranty . Now typically they would then add in a safety factor of 100% for a total of ~1600 hours. So during that 1600 hours they want a major component failure rate of 1.5% so that means the engineers need to design warranty life of 1600 hours. Now that doesn't mean equipment will die at 1600 hours that means that 98.5% of equipment will be operating at that point without failure. The design life is then the engineers expected economical life for the equipment...probably 95% of units will make twice the warranty life of 3200 hours, 90% of the units will last 3X etc.

The true life runs into the parts support for the equipment as times goes by. Sure you can get parts for a 8N but they are aftermarket. the same as parts for the international pickup; if you walk into a dealer now and ask for a heater core for a Travelall/Scout wouldn't have a clue what you are asking for.
 
   / Equipment Failure #13  
The products we see today are compromises between engineers and actuaries (bean counters) (quote)

And if the engineer calculates a 1 3/4 ohm resister will do the job the been counters go for bids to save $.00013 per.
Then said engineer designs equipment with ease in assembly but no concern with service you get problems.
Shucks in some cars you have 2 choices to change a specific spark plug, jack the engine off of the mounts or drill a hole in the passenger floorboard.

Today it is all about MTBF (mean time between failure) and that without local or environmental effects. (like salt corrosion or road surface conditions)

I recal GM's going to side mounted batteryconnections and was tole that it was introduced simply due to the savings in lead for the terminal posts. (like perhaps 2-3 cents per car! (possibly 3-40K for the GM annual production.
It is all about bottom line and shareholders dividends.
 
   / Equipment Failure #14  
Yes they could program that. And it would be difficult to find. You'd have to reverse engineer proprietary protocols etc which is not impossible but time consuming. It would be damning and considering the number of people that have access to the code at the manufacturer you'd risk your reputation when it was leaked by an employee. Then comes the lawsuits (like vw)

More important I think with equipment failure with regards to software is OUR ability to diagnose and fix without the dealer/software and thus the dealer cost.

Take a look at this article about some debugging of tractors. Found it enlightening. Same with cars as well.

Farmers Look For Ways To Circumvent Tractor Software Locks : All Tech Considered : NPR

- Mike
 
   / Equipment Failure #15  
We have equipment at work that go into ''limp'' mode and will not function if not checked by a tech from the company it was made by. There is no way our clinical engineering department to service and reset even if they could perform the service needed. A yearly visit and service by the manufacturer or the machines are useless.
 
   / Equipment Failure #16  
Let me give you an example of "planned breakdowns". I have a John Deere 730 made in the 1950 and it has over 20,000 hours. Year the engine has been rebuilt, but that is not to bad for 20,000 + hours. I have an allis Chalmers tractor 185 with over 14,000 hours. It was built in the 1970's. Then I have a 2008 mf 1531. It started falling apart at 800 hours. It has cost me a bundle in parts and repair. I have a 1973 and a 1996 Ford pickup. There still puttering around with out to much trouble. I bought my wife a dodge SUV. It goes back to the dealer every 3-4 months for some kind of problem. Lucky it has been warranty work. At least dodge is standing behind their product. Agco won't stand behind their tractor even though they know they have design flaws. The admitted to having weak front ends, over heating problems, and starting problems in cold weather. Agco is gouging on parts and they are making a bundle selling parts. It doesn't matter if it is a vehicle, tractor, lawn mower, refrigerator, etc, these manufacturers won't admit it, but they want to break. This way they get to sell you a new one or a bunch of over price expensive parts.
 
   / Equipment Failure #17  
Programming in a stoppage or breakdown can be very costly. A simple example is IH put Murphy switches on some machines ages ago to shut down with loss of oil pressure or overheating. An operator had an emergency shutdown crossing railroad tracks, end of this feature. More recently Boeing found a software error in their 787 that automatically rebooted the computer systems if they had not been rebooted after xxx xxx hours. This could happen in flight resulting in loss of control as it is completely fly by wire. Chances it would go long enough without a reboot (systems are shut down during major maintenance) but the possibility it could happen was an industry shock and required an immediate airworthiness directive.

At Case IH our computer controls had a requirement to be hardened to withstand a nuclear explosion (size and distance I can't remember but were in the spec). At Cat we had to test for electronic emissions and electronic hardening before production.

At both companies any kind of programmed fault forbidden. At Cat especially, company image, very rigid testing, yet we all demanded more from electronics. In the millions of lines of code errors could pop up. Rigorous testing uncovered most but anything built by man can fail. At Cat I had access to dozens of years of repair data. If we didn't improve reliability with each generation the people replacing us would. When I retired one of the machines for which I was responsible had the second best reliability in the entire company. My replacement told me they were able to make the next generation with more complex electronics even more reliable.

Through my work career (starting in 67) my wife and I would get a new vehicle every 3 years alternating mine and hers. At 6 years and about 60k miles reliability sucked. Now our most frequent driver is an 18 year old car. We have a newer car for long trips due to bells and whistles. Then their is our 2015 F-150 with every option I could order. Comparing to my 73 F-250, 3 times better fuel economy, 3.5 times further between oil changes, no breakdowns in 32k miles while the 73 stranded us in the Nevada desert at 11k miles due to a failed oil pump. The 73 F-250 actually broke our trade timetable lasting only 40k in 4 years. The good old days really sucked. I'd say the same goes for tractors until my L5740 h@d to be split at 850 hours due to a failed seal at the fwd output shaft at the transmission. That failure should never happen.
 
   / Equipment Failure #18  
Programming in a stoppage or breakdown can be very costly. A simple example is IH put Murphy switches on some machines ages ago to shut down with loss of oil pressure or overheating. An operator had an emergency shutdown crossing railroad tracks, end of this feature. More recently Boeing found a software error in their 787 that automatically rebooted the computer systems if they had not been rebooted after xxx xxx hours. This could happen in flight resulting in loss of control as it is completely fly by wire. Chances it would go long enough without a reboot (systems are shut down during major maintenance) but the possibility it could happen was an industry shock and required an immediate airworthiness directive.

At Case IH our computer controls had a requirement to be hardened to withstand a nuclear explosion (size and distance I can't remember but were in the spec). At Cat we had to test for electronic emissions and electronic hardening before production.

At both companies any kind of programmed fault forbidden. At Cat especially, company image, very rigid testing, yet we all demanded more from electronics. In the millions of lines of code errors could pop up. Rigorous testing uncovered most but anything built by man can fail. At Cat I had access to dozens of years of repair data. If we didn't improve reliability with each generation the people replacing us would. When I retired one of the machines for which I was responsible had the second best reliability in the entire company. My replacement told me they were able to make the next generation with more complex electronics even more reliable.

Through my work career (starting in 67) my wife and I would get a new vehicle every 3 years alternating mine and hers. At 6 years and about 60k miles reliability sucked. Now our most frequent driver is an 18 year old car. We have a newer car for long trips due to bells and whistles. Then their is our 2015 F-150 with every option I could order. Comparing to my 73 F-250, 3 times better fuel economy, 3.5 times further between oil changes, no breakdowns in 32k miles while the 73 stranded us in the Nevada desert at 11k miles due to a failed oil pump. The 73 F-250 actually broke our trade timetable lasting only 40k in 4 years. The good old days really sucked. I'd say the same goes for tractors until my L5740 h@d to be split at 850 hours due to a failed seal at the fwd output shaft at the transmission. That failure should never happen.
Enjoyed your post. The 73 Ford with 390 and four speed has kind of won my heart. I'll admit you got to put points and plugs in it every time you turn around. That old 390 always seems dependable and strong. If you pulled it down, you had quite a load on your trailer. I'll give the fuel economy. My 390 gets about 10-12 mpg loaded or empty. Dad has one of those duramax diesels and an Allison transmission. It beats my 390 fuel economy, scheduled maintenance issues and is really strong, I believe stronger than my 390. He gave a pretty penny for that truck. But I notice your profile says you worked for allis Chalmers. My 185 just seems like it is so much heavy in construction and total gross weight. My 730 John Deere is just like the allis except for the Deere is light on the front end. Both tractors seem pretty strong when you put the throttle to them. I have better luck with the old tractors and don't know why. These newer light weight tractors have left me disappointed. I'm not saying new stuff is totally bad, I am not having good luck with it.
 
   / Equipment Failure #19  
The products we see today are compromises between engineers and actuaries (bean counters) (quote)

And if the engineer calculates a 1 3/4 ohm resister will do the job the been counters go for bids to save $.00013 per.
Then said engineer designs equipment with ease in assembly but no concern with service you get problems.
Shucks in some cars you have 2 choices to change a specific spark plug, jack the engine off of the mounts or drill a hole in the passenger floorboard.

Today it is all about MTBF (mean time between failure) and that without local or environmental effects. (like salt corrosion or road surface conditions)

I recal GM's going to side mounted batteryconnections and was tole that it was introduced simply due to the savings in lead for the terminal posts. (like perhaps 2-3 cents per car! (possibly 3-40K for the GM annual production.
It is all about bottom line and shareholders dividends.

I wonder if GM invested in aftermarket top post conversion aftermarket units. Those side post are to say the least irritating when charging or jumping off. I had to replace the battery in my 07 Silverado last year and was able to get a top post battery.
 

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