Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[Gale Hawkins]

Why is everyone who legitimately questions the practicality of EVs a "hater"? Do they have their place? Sure, but I think it's preposterous to think they're going to be what everyone's driving 10 years from now either.

I, for one don't have a 220V 50A drop in my garage, and I'd suspect most others don't either. What about city dwellers who park on the street? Are they supposed to run 6ga extension cords out the window every night? And until recharge time can get somewhat close to what it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle, they're going to be totally impractical on trips.



Meh. We'll see how it works out when they (1) are more than a niche manufacturer of cars for rich people who want to make a statement and (2) show they can make a car profitably.
Not saying it can't/won't happen, but we ain't even close to there yet.

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

 

[aczlan]

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

Cash for clunkers was one of the worst things that has happened to the used car market in the past 50 years. It took a whole bunch of newer cars that would have otherwise passed on to replace really old and junky cars and sent them straight to the junkyard or the scrapper.
The used car market has still not recovered from that around here.

Aaron Z

 

[/pine]

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

10 years is a pipe dream...without a total game changing development, discovery or technological advancement in storage...battery based EVs will NEVER replace ICE powered vehicles...NEVER..! EVs will replace ICE vehicles etc...but it won't be with batteries as the main source of power...

 

[Gale Hawkins]

This 2014 "How its Made" has some great shots of the drive unit and how Tesla builds it.



How Its Made Dream Cars Tesla Model S - YouTube

WOW! That was 6 years ago also. Elon Musk is clearly driving cars to the next level in all ways. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

10 years is a pipe dream...without a total game changing development, discovery or technological advancement in storage...battery based EVs will NEVER replace ICE powered vehicles...NEVER..! EVs will replace ICE vehicles etc...but it won't be with batteries as the main source of power...

True in 10 years we may have moved past the limits of today's EV's. Since ICE development has ceased and several have announced production stopping mid decade the total game changing development you mentioned may be being fast tracked as we type.

 

[aczlan]

True in 10 years we may have moved past the limits of today's EV's. Since ICE development has ceased and several have announced production stopping mid decade the total game changing development you mentioned may be being fast tracked as we type.

Might want to rethink your sources. Ford just came out with a new gas engine (the 7.3L), GM just came out with a new 5.5L V8 for the C8 Corvette, Polaris just released a new engine for it's Slingshot, FCA and Cummins bumped the horsepower in the Cummins in there RAM trucks to 1000ft/lb of torque.
There is ICE development happening, no it's not as fast as what is happening in the electric-car world but that's because it's far more mature system so they're past the easy 80% gains and they're into the expensive 20% of the gains that cost you 80% of the time and money to get to.
What I do see is a lot of vehicles going forward will have a power plant option to be electric and manufacturers will have a drop-in electric power plant and battery pack that will replace the ICE drivetrain and fuel tank.

Aaron Z

 

[drssg]

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

How old are you? I bet you a dollar that ICE vehicles will absolutely still be available in ten years.

I'm not an EV nay sayer, and I can even envision buying one as a second vehicle, but there are so many obstacles to overcome before it is even feasible to replace ALL ICE vehicles with EVs. Personally, I have NO intention of replacing my car, truck, and motorcycle in the next ten years.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

How old are you? I bet you a dollar that ICE vehicles will absolutely still be available in ten years.

I'm not an EV nay sayer, and I can even envision buying one as a second vehicle, but there are so many obstacles to overcome before it is even feasible to replace ALL ICE vehicles with EVs. Personally, I have NO intention of replacing my car, truck, and motorcycle in the next ten years.

69

Volvo and VW are the only two I know that claim to be getting out of the ICE business at this time within the next 5 years. 2030 and 2040 are the more common dates.

European countries banning fossil fuel cars and switching to electric

Zero-Emission Vehicles Act would eliminate gas-powered U.S. car sales - Curbed

Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia

France sticks to planned ban on gas and diesel cars by 24

Gas and diesel cars will become more expense in the EC due to green tax laws. In the next 1-5 years we are going to change leadership in the USA and the CA limits may be moving east down the road. Gas and diesel cars will just get priced/taxed out of the market place over time I expect. It may be 2030 before Tesla can produce 10 million cars a year. Currently world wide annual new car sales are 70-80 million so there is NO way to get there fast. We need something besides hydrogen and lithium batteries to make those numbers. With Robo taxis the sale of new cars may drop like a rock per some pushing the coming auto self driving vehicles.

EU Auto Makers Have to Sell More Electric Cars as New Emission Targets Loom - WSJ

 

[sd455dan]

Cash for clunkers was one of the worst things that has happened to the used car market in the past 50 years. It took a whole bunch of newer cars that would have otherwise passed on to replace really old and junky cars and sent them straight to the junkyard or the scrapper.
The used car market has still not recovered from that around here.

Aaron Z

I Agree,
and remember the wrecking yards were upset to.

It was a real shame that a person could have the same model car/truck with a worn out engine and try and buy a low mileage "clunker" and instead they were required to crush perfectly good drivetrains.

At a minimum there should have been a provision for a high mile engine to be replaced with a low mile clunker engine.

I have absolutely no doubt there are some oil burning gas engine cars and trucks that could have had the emissions greatly reduced but instead the replacement used engines were crushed and melted down.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Might want to rethink your sources. Ford just came out with a new gas engine (the 7.3L), GM just came out with a new 5.5L V8 for the C8 Corvette, Polaris just released a new engine for it's Slingshot, FCA and Cummins bumped the horsepower in the Cummins in there RAM trucks to 1000ft/lb of torque.
There is ICE development happening, no it's not as fast as what is happening in the electric-car world but that's because it's far more mature system so they're past the easy 80% gains and they're into the expensive 20% of the gains that cost you 80% of the time and money to get to.
What I do see is a lot of vehicles going forward will have a power plant option to be electric and manufacturers will have a drop-in electric power plant and battery pack that will replace the ICE drivetrain and fuel tank.

Aaron Z

I agree with your points. I think the makers of these new gas engines did not realize how fast EV technology was going to bite the ICE business or the carbon tax factors. Because the old line companies chose to not lead in the EV market in a meaningful after having a 20 year head start means they are helping to fuel Tesla's expansion plans internationally. I am concerned Ford may not be around come 2040 due to old factories and the dealership model. Even GM and Ford buyers no longer need a 100-1000 cars and trucks to look at to make a buying decision and the sales staff would be better replaced with more finance staff. When I bought my 2016 Leaf last Oct I had my money with me but still had to wait 3 hours to leave the dealership because the one finance guy was back logged with sales from that day.

EV power sources is the main thing that is holding up EV sales today. The new China Tesla factory is ready to build 3000 cars a week but their outside battery source can only get out 1000 battery packs a week.

Tesla sold carbon-emissions credits to General Motors and Fiat Chrysler - Business Insider