How long before Compact Diesels are obsolete?

[RalphVa]

Let me know if this is the wrong place to put this, but IMHO, the advantages of electric powered tractors in the smaller sizes (under, say, 100hp) will be so massive that even though cars are ahead in the development, new small electric tractors will begin taking over the market somewhere around 2025, and by 2030, they will have made diesels in the under 60 hp class obsolete, for the following reasons:
1. Diesel engines and the various transmissions are extremely expensive to design and produce compared to electric drive trains.
2. The limitation on continuous use of electric tractors - probably 4 hours or so at a clip before requiring recharge, on the lower priced machines won't be a problem to most small tractor owners. For those for whom it is a problem, more batteries can be put in the tractor.
3. No more lugging and pouring cans of diesel is not a nothing-burger.
4. The problem of battery weight in cars is an advantage in most tractors, as it can increase both traction and stability if properly situated.
5. Lower maintenance costs and full control of speed without many gallons of hydro oil for locomotion.
6. In tractors with loaders, portable supplemental battery packs could potentially charged while the tractor is working, and added to the loader when using PTO implements, or carried on the 3pt. when doing loader work.
7. CUTs are not really screamingly noisy but the electric tractors' quiet will be appreciated.
8. Prices will be competitive with diesels by 2025 and will be significantly less expensive than diesels by 2030.
9. An electric tractor charged from home solar or wind will appeal to the "independent" types, like most of us here.
10. If made properly, repairs to an Electric Tractor should be much easier and require much less technical knowledge than compact diesels.

Disclaimer: I am invested in electric vehicles, electric tractors and solar panel makers.

I agree. Have a self-propelled push Ryobi 40v that is fully as powerful as the Honda we just sold. Got an electric Ryobi ZT as well. Don't think it is quite as powerful as a gas machine, but close.

Neither of the Ryobis have belts, just motors for the wheels and motors for each blade. That's one appeal to a tractor, e.g. no need for HST nor shafts to get power to the front wheels as well. Each wheel will likely have its own brushless motor. There will be no PTOs. Each implement will have its own motor. Just connect the battery power line. May see some hybrids, some with PTOs to enable use of older implements. Just need a separate motor on the PTO.

It's astonishing what power brushless gives you. Have a Ryobi 40v grass whip that is as powerful as a 2 cycle engine; whereas, a Kobalt 40v brushed one just sold was not near as powerful.

Anywhere from 2 to 4 hours operation would be fine with me.

Diesels would be reserved for all day power and would likely be turbo. Turbo and electric likely have about the same efficiency, but electric gets far simpler. Could have an electric top link, for instance. Electric motors to move chutes around, etc.

 

[grsthegreat]

I agree. Have a self-propelled push Ryobi 40v that is fully as powerful as the Honda we just sold. Got an electric Ryobi ZT as well. Don't think it is quite as powerful as a gas machine, but close.

Neither of the Ryobis have belts, just motors for the wheels and motors for each blade. That's one appeal to a tractor, e.g. no need for HST nor shafts to get power to the front wheels as well. Each wheel will likely have its own brushless motor. There will be no PTOs. Each implement will have its own motor. Just connect the battery power line. May see some hybrids, some with PTOs to enable use of older implements. Just need a separate motor on the PTO.

It's astonishing what power brushless gives you. Have a Ryobi 40v grass whip that is as powerful as a 2 cycle engine; whereas, a Kobalt 40v brushed one just sold was not near as powerful.

Anywhere from 2 to 4 hours operation would be fine with me.

Diesels would be reserved for all day power and would likely be turbo. Turbo and electric likely have about the same efficiency, but electric gets far simpler. Could have an electric top link, for instance. Electric motors to move chutes around, etc.

I wonder if the loader and 3 point will operate as fast as an electric over hydraulic dump trailer.

 

[PuffyC]

Battery technology is one of those areas that doesn’t improve. The lead acid battery was invented in 1859, 162 years ago, and we still use them today.

Electric vehicles really only trade one inefficiency for another. Trade an inefficient combustion engine for an efficient electric motor, but trade an efficient energy- dense fuel source for an inefficient battery.

Batteries are 15 times less energy density than a tank of diesel, are much much larger and heavier, take forever to recharge, and eventually fail.

Build a better battery, then electric vehicles make sense. But given the very poor track record of improving batteries, I’m doubtful.

Battery density has tripled in the past 10 years while prices have fallen 85%. That's pretty significant improvement. BloombergNEF: Lithium-Ion Battery Cell Densities Have Almost Tripled Since 2010

But I agree we still need better batteries. The next major push will come from solid state batteries which are significantly denser (and thus lighter), cheaper, have faster recharge times (5-10 minutes) and a much longer lifespan. Those are slated to be on the road in production vehicles by the end of the decade. BMW and Ford Invest in Solid-State Battery Startup for Future EVs.

 

[PuffyC]

Neither of the Ryobis have belts, just motors for the wheels and motors for each blade. That's one appeal to a tractor, e.g. no need for HST nor shafts to get power to the front wheels as well. Each wheel will likely have its own brushless motor. There will be no PTOs. Each implement will have its own motor. Just connect the battery power line. May see some hybrids, some with PTOs to enable use of older implements. Just need a separate motor on the PTO.

This touches on the biggest appeal to me. Even if you don't care about pollution and think climate change is a bunch of hooey, there are no more belts to break, no more spark plugs, or air filters, or coolant that needs regular replacement. No more valves that need adjustment, or carburetors to clean. No more ignition coils and starters to go bad. No more oil and filter changes. No more hauling fuel cans back and forth from town, or additives to buy just to keep it all stable. And eventually no more DPF or DEF. There's essentially no maintenance at all for a motor with an estimated 500,000 mile lifespan. The convenience factor alone is worth it, not to mention the incredible amounts of time and money you'd be saving just in maintenance over the life of that vehicle.

 

[arrow]

This touches on the biggest appeal to me. Even if you don't care about pollution and think climate change is a bunch of hooey, there are no more belts to break, no more spark plugs, or air filters, or coolant that needs regular replacement. No more valves that need adjustment, or carburetors to clean. No more ignition coils and starters to go bad. No more oil and filter changes. No more hauling fuel cans back and forth from town, or additives to buy just to keep it all stable. And eventually no more DPF or DEF. There's essentially no maintenance at all for a motor with an estimated 500,000 mile lifespan. The convenience factor alone is worth it, not to mention the incredible amounts of time and money you'd be saving just in maintenance over the life of that vehicle.

I hope a lot of the battery tech will encompass synthetic aspects otherwise mining for their essential ingredients will rival coal mining.
It'll be a different place 300 yrs from now that's for sure.
Perhaps other worldly aliens may teach us a thing or two if they're not here to wipe out the human race.

 

[grsthegreat]

This touches on the biggest appeal to me. Even if you don't care about pollution and think climate change is a bunch of hooey, there are no more belts to break, no more spark plugs, or air filters, or coolant that needs regular replacement. No more valves that need adjustment, or carburetors to clean. No more ignition coils and starters to go bad. No more oil and filter changes. No more hauling fuel cans back and forth from town, or additives to buy just to keep it all stable. And eventually no more DPF or DEF. There's essentially no maintenance at all for a motor with an estimated 500,000 mile lifespan. The convenience factor alone is worth it, not to mention the incredible amounts of time and money you'd be saving just in maintenance over the life of that vehicle.

I take it you think an electric motor lasts forever. I work on industrial motors for many years. They do wear out. And these are motors that run far shorter time than an automobile will.

 

[bearthebruce]

This touches on the biggest appeal to me. Even if you don't care about pollution and think climate change is a bunch of hooey, there are no more belts to break, no more spark plugs, or air filters, or coolant that needs regular replacement. No more valves that need adjustment, or carburetors to clean. No more ignition coils and starters to go bad. No more oil and filter changes. No more hauling fuel cans back and forth from town, or additives to buy just to keep it all stable. And eventually no more DPF or DEF. There's essentially no maintenance at all for a motor with an estimated 500,000 mile lifespan. The convenience factor alone is worth it, not to mention the incredible amounts of time and money you'd be saving just in maintenance over the life of that vehicle.

Most of what PuffyC writes I agree with. However, I have had to replace smart batteries for my Husqy equip because the electronics failed. So other things on machines will fail.

As an EE, electric motors and their controls do fail and will fail far sooner than the claims of 500K miles. I cannot accept that these motors and their drive electronics are going to be maintenance/trouble free. They are not.

Battery systems are cooled on these vehicles. Where there is water or coolant, there will be wear and things will need to be maintained.

I do expect the time between maintenance cycles to be longer - more miles. I also expect that when failures occur, the cost to repair will be far higher. Why? When parts are not failing as often, fewer parts are made. The businesses making the parts will apply higher prices for the lower volume. They will not invest in mass production and aftermarket opportunities for these parts will have less appeal as well. Fewer suppliers will result in higher prices.

As with all things, there are advantages and disadvantages. When the advantage outweighs the disadvantage, then my choice is to adopt the new idea. On small powered tools around my home, I am moving away from gasoline powered machines to electric machines. On my home property - it makes sense. On the rural farm property, it mostly makes sense for the hand tools. We have a couple of battery powered tools - chain saws and such for small work. When we get to a bigger tree, we go at it with a gas powered saw.

Choose the technology that works for you now. Change will continue and as new tech brings advantage, make the change. I don't hear any here suggesting we go back to animal powered transportation. We adopted the advantage of the ICE. We will adopt the advantage of its replacement when that replacement is an obvious better solution than what we have today.

 

[grsthegreat]

Ive used battery operated hand tools for many, many years. It amazes me that my current sat of hand tools are stored in a carry case that holds 8 additional batteries. When I was working on wiring houses, id have chargers and batteries charging all day long. New batteries cost almost as much as the tool they operated in. And no matter what anyone says, I pulled out the electric drill when drilling a house for wiring. 100 foot cord and all.
ive tried battery string trimmers, and ALL failed after 1-2 seasons. All 3 of them made by different manufacturers. My 2 gas string trimmers and all 15+ years old and still work great. My Stihl gas chain saw is 28 years old and still starts after a few pulls.
ive never used a battery powered chain saw. No idea how long it will hold a charge during heavy use. When I’m out cutting wood I’m running them for 4-5 hours at a time. I wouldn’t mind trying one though.

when I purchased my gas blower 2 years ago, I thought about getting a battery powered one, but the gas was lighter. And the rated blowing power was about 10% higher. ... oh, and the gas one was quite a bit cheaper.

 

[bearthebruce]

@grsthegreat you make the point. You do not see yet an advantage to the battery powered tools for your needs. Yet, you keep an open mind to the possibilities.

On the chainsaws from Husqy, we go out for 3-4 hours and no - they are not running constant by any means as we are doing trail work. We carry 4 batteries. In a heavy cutting zone taking down trees 8" or more in diameter - not big stuff.. and then cutting that up enough that we can push it aside for latter work, we use 3 batteries typically. We have 2 chargers and they will charge the batteries in an hour to hour and half..

The Husqy saw with a good sharp chain works well. As the chain dulls, it gets hard to get through the tree. I have been surprised by the durability and the ability of the 16" saw. There are newer offers from Stihl and others. I have not tried them.

I love the battery powered pole saw we have that stretches to 22 feet. That is great for clearing overhead branches so the tractor can move through a section. It takes a little practice to swing that bad boy fully extended and I do think the optional pivot harness should be purchased.. this old man's back has trouble if he does much with that saw! Gonna get the harness!

 

[grsthegreat]

@grsthegreat you make the point. You do not see yet an advantage to the battery powered tools for your needs. Yet, you keep an open mind to the possibilities.

On the chainsaws from Husqy, we go out for 3-4 hours and no - they are not running constant by any means as we are doing trail work. We carry 4 batteries. In a heavy cutting zone taking down trees 8" or more in diameter - not big stuff.. and then cutting that up enough that we can push it aside for latter work, we use 3 batteries typically. We have 2 chargers and they will charge the batteries in an hour to hour and half..

The Husqy saw with a good sharp chain works well. As the chain dulls, it gets hard to get through the tree. I have been surprised by the durability and the ability of the 16" saw. There are newer offers from Stihl and others. I have not tried them.

I love the battery powered pole saw we have that stretches to 22 feet. That is great for clearing overhead branches so the tractor can move through a section. It takes a little practice to swing that bad boy fully extended and I do think the optional pivot harness should be purchased.. this old man's back has trouble if he does much with that saw! Gonna get the harness!

I have a gas stihl pole saw, and believe me it tires the arm and back fast. My wife bought me the support system for the saw. It works great. A little clumsy to maneuver at times, but no more sore arms and back.