Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[PuffyC]

For a long time the added load due to growth was partially offset by more efficient appliances, lights, etc.

As has been mentioned, now we are talking about replacing one enegry source at the home with another adding a huge burden to the electrical infrastructure (on top of that added by population growth).

I just do not see it without new power plants, new transmission lines, etc. I have not heard much about new power plants.

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These estimates make the common mistake of projecting forward while assuming we’ll still be under the exact same constraints of today. That’s not how the future works. By 2050 I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that instead of me pulling 1500 kWh every month from the grid, I’ll be pulling zero, or more likely feeding some back. That’s not some pie in the sky pipe dream - many people are doing exactly that today. If you look at how the price of solar is dropping and how installations are growing, it’s not unreasonable to see a future where the grid will need less capacity, not more.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

I am seriously considering a 2022 Ford f150 Lightening truck next year to replace my wife's truck; I've read the hype and the ads, what are your guys opinions?

 

[Phil Timmons]

Designing infrastructure for future needs is made tricky by changing technologies. Twenty years ago I was working for a city that dug up 3 miles of US highway through town to install all new water, sewer, gas, and electric lines through the town's largest commercial/industrial zone. I proposed an additional conduit for future fiber optic communication lines, and got a flat NO from the ignorant fossils at the top. This was really a nice project, designed to accommodate economic growth over the next 20-30 years, except the planners, civil engineers and economists had no concept of data as a critical resource. The administrators, of course, were ignorant obstructionists.

oh yeah. Spare Conduit is always the cheapest, best buy that you can put into any system.

I sort of underplayed that Best, Worst, Changed Case stuff, because I come to close to the know-it-all-Engineer routine anyway . . . but when doing Scenario Planning -- which are NOT supposed to be used for prediction -- but of the 3 Scenarios -- Changed Case (where you need to stay flexible) is the MOST Common by far. Always assume there are going to be Changes, so you need flexibility, and you can do yourself and everyone who comes after some huge favors in advance.

 

[California]

As for the "true" engineers stuff . . . most of US Engineers under an ABET (that is the Industry Board for accreditation) College Program will have at least some of this -- it is part of Industrial Engineering, and called "Engineering Economics." Bunches (and bunches) of Spreadsheets. Cash Flows on various models --- Some Growth, No Growth, Negative Growth. Really sharp organizations will do what are called Scenario Planning -- we plan for Best Case, Worst Case, and Changed Case.

When you are doing Scenario Planning -- you are NOT supposed to use just one case (Best, Worst, or Changed) and use it as the ONLY Case. In practice, you may have noticed that Texas always/only uses the Best Case -- ... It is why Texas is always going Boom and Bust. When the Worst Case hits (Oil at less than $0) or the BIG WINTER Storm -- Texas is standing flat foot footed. Again -- always only driven by the mindset.

Yeah, and it's Mindset to blame wind turbines (that weren't winterized like everywhere else) when they are a tiny percentage of energy production. And Mindset that wouldn't allow him to say the failure of natural gas production (again, due to no winterization) was what caused all the misery for those days.

Remember the near-catastrophe we had in NorCal when Oroville Dam spillway washed out? The dam (tallest dam in the US, and all built with earth fill) is owned and managed by SoCal water interests, for water they can sell to Los Angeles and for San Joaquin Valley corporate agribusiness. There's constant conflict between the NorCal locals who need flood protection downstream from that 770 ft tall dam, and the water owners who only want Best Case maximum water production with little money spent on preventive maintenance. Spend money on Scenario Studies, plan for the best interests of all the affected parties? What is this? Socialism?

 

[California]

... I come to close to the know-it-all-Engineer routine anyway . . . but when doing Scenario Planning -- which are NOT supposed to be used for prediction -- but of the 3 Scenarios -- Changed Case (where you need to stay flexible) is the MOST Common by far. Always assume there are going to be Changes, so you need flexibility, and you can do yourself and everyone who comes after some huge favors in advance.

A couple of themes I learned in earning my MBA are hugely important. One is, anticipate change and get out in front of it to profit from it, in contrast to getting run over by what wasn't anticipated because you never thought of it.

"Always assume there are going to be Changes". Yep. Recognizing that you exist in a fluid, not static, environment, is essential.

 

[sd455dan]

A couple of themes I learned in earning my MBA are hugely important. One is, anticipate change and get out in front of it to profit from it, in contrast to getting run over by what wasn't anticipated because you never thought of it.

"Always assume there are going to be Changes". Yep. Recognizing that you exist in a fluid, not static, environment, is essential.

The Only Constant is Change, Heraclitus

ps. looks like the EV rebates "may" be coming back for manufacturers who have already built the total of allotted EV's

U.S. Senate panel advances EV tax credit of up to $12,500

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee advanced legislation on Wednesday that would boost electric vehicle tax credits to as much as $12,500 for EVs that are assembled by union workers in the United States. The bill would limit tax credits to vehicles with a retail price below $80,000 to qualify for...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[txdon]

I am seriously considering a 2022 Ford f150 Lightening truck next year to replace my wife's truck; I've read the hype and the ads, what are your guys opinions?

Get your name on the list so you can get the proposed $12,500 rebate incentives before they run out.

 

[5030]

Hogs do not do well on brewer's grains,

Cattle do. Before the local e-plant closed up 4 years ago, I was feeding DDG regularly. Really puts on the market weight.

 

[California]

The Only Constant is Change, Heraclitus

ps. looks like the EV rebates "may" be coming back for manufacturers who have already built the total of allotted EV's

... If built in a union shop. Too bad Musk has been ranting against unions.

I've been fascinated by the Tesla Model Y. I'm waiting for it to get beyond the random assembly quality that Consumer Union says disqualified it from a recommended rating. However - just this week Tesla announced models 3 and Y will no longer have the radar sensors that can see through rain, and see the second car ahead. Just camera sensors that a reviewer said are useless in rain. Not even the cruise control was usable. That's not as attractive.

 

[ning]

I am seriously considering a 2022 Ford f150 Lightening truck next year to replace my wife's truck; I've read the hype and the ads, what are your guys opinions?

Looks like a strong offering to me - especially if the "shorter/medium range"/230mi version is substantially cheaper than the long range: I don't know that we have much of a use for that extra range, and if I can get a reasonably optioned (ie, not super lux) truck that can go 200mi that may just be sufficient for us.

The extended range with it's extra acceleration (the standard one is faster than you really need as it is, and I've got a motorcycle if I feel the need) probably has a lot of standard fancy stuff, and even if it doesn't, it's a fair chunk of change on top of the shorter range. I'm not convinced of being able to drive 560 miles in one day in an electric vehicle for the time being (distance from home to a city we drive to once or twice a year because of reasons), since a "300 mile" range vehicle will likely need 2 recharges to get you there (my wife demands the fuel tank not drop below 25% now, so that 300mi becomes a stop around 225mi and 450mi, +/- depending on availability of chargers) and two 45+ minute charges adds a lot onto that trip that's already a stretch for us in one day. The "230 mile" range would require a stop at 170, 340, and maybe 510 with the same 75% requirement, though it could probably be more reasonably stretched to also only need two stops for that trip, which means that its reduced range wouldn't be seen in our use case.

If you do more than a small amount of towing (eg go to the dump, short-distance camping) these should be fine. Longer towing hits them like it does a gas truck, except that this truck takes a lot longer to refuel. We don't do much trailering any more, so this doesn't matter in our equation.

Regardless, I won't be getting rid of my '97 F350 4x4 CC LB, though it may get even less use if we get this truck!