Did The Farmer's Almanac predict any of this warmer weather?

[ovrszd]

My digital thermometer resets at midnight,, then records the high and low temp.
This morning it shows high of 63 degrees, and a low of 56,,, currently 56 degrees.
Humidity is 62%, which is not horrible, either,,
We are supposed to have a high of 60 today,
and a high of at least 65 degrees each day for the NEXT FIVE DAYS!!

Your next Winter weather is going to pass thru here this weekend. We'll make sure to save some so you get it too.

 

[Blue Mule]

As a meteorologist my brain gets triggered by threads like this

- La Nina is in full control of the pattern this winter and you can already see the effects with the main flow dipping into Texas and then shooting up to the Great Lakes. That's why it's been mild in the southeast with tornadoes, while the upper midwest has seen a good amount of snow.

- This was predicted well in advance. And yes, it happens regularly. There've been quite a few La Nina winters in the last 75 years.

- Nature always keeps a balance. "Climate Change" is bulls*it.

- One year ago it snowed like he11 on Christmas here in KY, this year it was 72 degrees. Again, nature always keeps a balance.

- Among the top 6 warmest Christmases on record here, 3 of them were 100 years or more ago before there were interstates, traffic congestion, or hair spray cans. Again, there's nothing new under the sun and nature keeps a balance.

- Going forward the east/southeast will see wild storms and as we head into spring severe weather will be a big concern.

- The western U.S. will likely see lots of cold and snow as they will be in a trough much of the time.

 

[NoTrespassing]

As a meteorologist my brain gets triggered by threads like this

- La Nina is in full control of the pattern this winter and you can already see the effects with the main flow dipping into Texas and then shooting up to the Great Lakes. That's why it's been mild in the southeast with tornadoes, while the upper midwest has seen a good amount of snow.

- This was predicted well in advance. And yes, it happens regularly. There've been quite a few La Nina winters in the last 75 years.

- Nature always keeps a balance. "Climate Change" is bulls*it.

- One year ago it snowed like he11 on Christmas here in KY, this year it was 72 degrees. Again, nature always keeps a balance.

- Among the top 6 warmest Christmases on record here, 3 of them were 100 years or more ago before there were interstates, traffic congestion, or hair spray cans. Again, there's nothing new under the sun and nature keeps a balance.

- Going forward the east/southeast will see wild storms and as we head into spring severe weather will be a big concern.

- The western U.S. will likely see lots of cold and snow as they will be in a trough much of the time.

If I could give this post 10 thumbs up I would!

Kevin

 

[Blue Mule]

Oh and to get back to the original question, the Farmers Almanac and the Old Farmers Almanac have no accuracy. Or, in science what we'd call "skill". They use "secret" methods to arrive at the weather outlook. And it's like throwing darts at a board. Most of the time, one will publish the polar opposite of what the other publishes because that way there's a 50/50 shot they'll be the ones who are close to being accurate and they can say, "SEE!"

A reporter from a large newspaper on the east coast called me to ask this question a few winters ago and I explained it to her the best way possible over the phone. A person would be more accurate than the almanac if they simply used historical averages to make a "forecast".

 

[ovrszd]

Oh and to get back to the original question, the Farmers Almanac and the Old Farmers Almanac have no accuracy. Or, in science what we'd call "skill". They use "secret" methods to arrive at the weather outlook. And it's like throwing darts at a board. Most of the time, one will publish the polar opposite of what the other publishes because that way there's a 50/50 shot they'll be the ones who are close to being accurate and they can say, "SEE!"

A reporter from a large newspaper on the east coast called me to ask this question a few winters ago and I explained it to her the best way possible over the phone. A person would be more accurate than the almanac if they simply used historical averages to make a "forecast".

We've been in an easy Winter pattern here in NW Missouri. We've had some large "swings" in regards to temps and wind. Makes me a little nervous going into Winter like that. For example we are extremely dry here. Getting a few sprinkles today with temps upper 40s. Starting Friday night we are headed to extreme temp swings. 30 degree difference in the temp Friday and the temp Saturday. Will drop below zero Saturday night. Could see 6-8" of snow. 25 mph wind.

 

[Cougsfan]

The Farmer's Almanac relies on a secret method of predicting weather that is not available for review by the public. That alone makes it a source of information I would not put my faith in. They claim 80% accuracy. Depending on how you choose to measure, calculate and report your accuracy, it probably wouldn't be too hard to vacillate from a 20% to 80% accuracy claim. I'll pass on following Farmer's Almanac.

 

[CobyRupert]

They are not taking bribes. They are dedicated professionals that are getting paid an honest living doing research to support whatever the organization is paying them to find!

If they are fudging the findings, you can’t call them honest. And if they take money for falsifying the evidence to get the desired results, as you suggest, that would be a bribe.
So:
What is the overwhelming consensus they find?
Do you have any proof they are false?

 

[arizona98tj]

12 inches of new snow in the past 36 hours. A -23F this morning here on the homestead in northern MN.

 

[oosik]

I know a few guys who read the New or Old Farmers Almanac. None of them use it as a guide for the coming years plantings. It's just an enjoyable read.

There are methods/means available that are far more accurate.

It's just about 9AM here and we are still in the single digits.

 

[ovrszd]

12 inches of new snow in the past 36 hours. A -23F this morning here on the homestead in northern MN.

Ouch. That hurt just reading it.