Just because the media calls a storm 1000 year storm is enough evidence for a thinking person to know they are blowing smoke. We don't have 1000 years of good data. Heck, we don't have 200 years of good data.
You don't always need a thousand years of data; you observe something over time, and accumulate observations. Typically, there is a pattern, or shape, to the distribution of your observations. You can then take your observations, and the distribution of your data over time and make an estimate for how likely some new data point would be.
It doesn't matter whether it is home runs by a hitter, bumper specifications, electrical power cable failures, whether hoof beats are zebras, or weather. You can readily make an estimate with sufficient data. The breadth/size of your base data, and the exact type of its distribution, will determine how certain the estimated data point is. The more data that you have, and the better your model is, the more accurate your predictions are. With global temperature measures, there is a surfeit of data.
What is often lost in the popular press reporting is that an estimate for a "one in a thousand year flood", is that there is a probability associated with that estimate, usually 95%, or 99%, meaning that one time in twenty or one time in a hundred that something that is estimated to be a "one in a thousand year flood", is not that. The flip side is that at least nineteen out of twenty times something called a "one in a thousand year flood", is a "one in a thousand year flood".
I admit to be at home with numbers and numerical analysis. I once made out really well with it when I came across a roulette wheel that was badly off.
It is just statistics.
Whether you believe that the climate is changing or not, the frequency of extreme weather events is increasing. (
See citizen reported data here) That is just the data folks. One explanation for the fact that more extreme weather events are happening is that "**** happens". Another is that by virtue of shifts in CO2 levels, global temperature, and climate shifts are occurring. The "**** happens" explanation gives you no way to model or plan for the future. The other explanation gives people who plan, and are involved in building and maintaining things like infrastructure, such as dams, water supplies, levees, roads, power supplies, and home designs, something to make plans with to be better prepared when the future arrives.
If someone recognizes that the roulette wheel is off, and you don't, they will clean you out. That is a fact. It is called betting on a sure thing.
Americans are strangely resistant to believe in climate change compared to the rest of the world;
Our latest national survey finds that the highest percentage of Americans since our surveys began are "extremely" or "very" sure global warming is happening.
climatecommunication.yale.edu
A new poll shows different attitudes to climate change around the globe
www.theguardian.com
All the best,
Peter