New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[Hay Dude]

When you put a large tariff on our largest supplier, who is going to pay? The end user - it all is passed along. And even if you aren't buying something made in China (even Apple is switching to India), the new supplier will take advantage. Remember even F-35 deliveries are on hold because they found a part that somewhere down the chain, a part was sourced from China. To compensate for our tariffs, China put large tariffs on USA supplied stuff like farm products. The ag lobby complained and money given to farmers to compensate for their losses, but prices still went up. My grain sales following last year's harvest were 75% higher per bushel - thank you consumers. One thing after another. As for shortages, I still read of people unable to get delivery dates for Kubota products depending on part of the country yet Kubota continues their 0% rate - on higher priced product so they balance out. I retired at the start of 2009 with most of my income being from investments. I am still in stocks, yes, I am suffering this year, but over the 12 years since I retired, I ranged from 12% to 22% annual increase in my stock portfolio. So I am down 15% this year to date, really hurts, but should I complain after the gains over the previous 12, or do I only complain about today. Will I buy another new tractor this year (I bought 8 since I retired)? Very unlikely. If I do buy, it will be like Hay Dude looking for a good buy in used. Used prices - I have seen auction prices a fraction of a year ago.

Used tractors are overpriced right now. I took advantage of the US/CN exchange rate and got a decent deal on a used one from Canada. We have local tractor jockey’s buying from Canada and reselling here with a nice markup.
Tough times for good deals on used now, especially with spotty inventory high interest rates.

 

[5030]

Doesn’t seem to be many investment opportunities today. Stocks and bonds are both in the toilet.

I do gold myself though I have not bought any lately. That and watches, I have a soft spot for Rolex timepieces but you need to have a deep wallet to purchase one. I have a couple.

 

[Yander]

I think what you will find, and the reason I bought mine this year with rates around 3%, is that the increase in input costs (shipping, labor, raw mat. etc. ) will off-set the drop you would see in a depressed market. I don't think you will see the prices drop that much if at all. In fact, they may do the opposite.

The inventories played a big part in the reduced sales this year, I know from talking to multiple dealers. I also experienced this myself. So what if Joe Shmoe drove past his dealer(s) in Montana and they were well stocked, that wasn't my dealer when I was shopping. The dealer I bought from said he couldn't keep the model I bought stocked for more than a few days and I heard this from multiple dealers. Only about 3 months ago.

I think if you want a tractor, wait until year end of this year and go buy it. You might want to buy a disc along with it and plant some food with it. Those prices aren't going down anytime soon.

I plan to plant 3 or 4 times as much corn next year as I did this year. I'll be giving it away to friends/family/neighbors.

 

[5030]

I plan to plant 3 or 4 times as much corn next year as I did this year. I'll be giving it away to friends/family/neighbors.

You can send it my way. I heat my home with shelled corn.

 

[Yander]

You can send it my way. I heat my home with shelled corn.

Ha, well this will be sweet corn. But now I have questions. How many 50 lb bags of corn do you think it would take to heat a 1600 ranch home for one week with a corn stove? I have not heard much about them. Just started looking at them.

 

[Gem99ultra]

Everything is tanking. It was to be expected though, no surge lasts forever.

"Free Money" is starting to evaporate. Some may even have to go back to work. Oh horrors!

 

[Hay Dude]

I think what you will find, and the reason I bought mine this year with rates around 3%, is that the increase in input costs (shipping, labor, raw mat. etc. ) will off-set the drop you would see in a depressed market. I don't think you will see the prices drop that much if at all. In fact, they may do the opposite.

The inventories played a big part in the reduced sales this year, I know from talking to multiple dealers. I also experienced this myself. So what if Joe Shmoe drove past his dealer(s) in Montana and they were well stocked, that wasn't my dealer when I was shopping. The dealer I bought from said he couldn't keep the model I bought stocked for more than a few days and I heard this from multiple dealers. Only about 3 months ago.

I think if you want a tractor, wait until year end of this year and go buy it. You might want to buy a disc along with it and plant some food with it. Those prices aren't going down anytime soon.

I plan to plant 3 or 4 times as much corn next year as I did this year. I'll be giving it away to friends/family/neighbors.

Very good observation.
Container costs on container vessels are up dramatically.
International shipping companies are not stupid. They know we are the biggest consumer and they also know everything we buy is now made in China and a lesser amount in Europe & Japan.
They are gouging us on international overseas shipping. Check out container costs.

Those ships burn millions of tons of diesel fuel bringing us all our stuff.

 

[jyoutz]

Ha, well this will be sweet corn. But now I have questions. How many 50 lb bags of corn do you think it would take to heat a 1600 ranch home for one week with a corn stove? I have not heard much about them. Just started looking at them.

A corn stove is just a wood pellet stove. I heated with wood pellets for years, and still have one in the basement. During the cold weather, I used about 30 pounds to run the stove for all night and most of the morning. Since the Fred rate is based on the auger setting and not the fuel, my guess is that corn usage would be about the same as wood pellets.

 

[5030]

A corn stove is just a wood pellet stove. I heated with wood pellets for years, and still have one in the basement. During the cold weather, I used about 30 pounds to run the stove for all night and most of the morning. Since the Feed rate is based on the auger setting and not the fuel, my guess is that corn usage would be about the same as wood pellets.

Fixed it for you.

Actually, your statement is incorrect. You have to own a true multifuel stove to burn corn. Pellet stoves can only burn processed wood pellets not corn. True multi fuel stoves are equipped with controls and a burn chamber that can adjust the algorithm's to combust corn which requires a different air to fuel ratio than pellets do and...

Dried field corn produces substantially more btu's per volume than wood pellets do

I have 2. One in the house and one in the shop and both are capable of 85,000 btu input, 80K btu output. I can burn any biomass in mine, processed wood pellets, dried field corn, dried cherry pits, pelletized switch grass or just straight wood pellets or a mixture of all of them.

Far as consumption is concerned, it all depends on where the unit is set at to deliver the heat output you want. I can set mine in any of 9 heat ranges from idle to wide open and the heat range determines the fuel usage.

Been heating with biomass for over 30 years and biomass is 'carbon neutral' for those 'greenies' out there, not something I'm concerned about, I use biomass because it's cheap heat and I'm inherently cheap.

 

[ruffdog]

Ha, well this will be sweet corn. But now I have questions. How many 50 lb bags of corn do you think it would take to heat a 1600 ranch home for one week with a corn stove? I have not heard much about them. Just started looking at them.

The neighbor had a large corn boiler in the basement of a small farm house. It was plumbed into the existing oil burner hot water system and would also help heat the hot water. It had a large feeder hopper that he could fill from outside. He would get a old gravity wagon full of dry corn and it would last most of the winter.