New Tractor Sales Are Declining

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   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #541  
When the interest rates are high, DON'T BORROW!! Find some other way to get things done.
Because if you borrow when interest rates are high, you'll miss out when they come down.

I'm not sure this is always good advice.

For many things (like housing), there's an inverse relationship between cost to borrow and price, as people can only afford to pay so much on the monthly payment. So when rates are higher, prices come down, and vice versa (again, look at the housing market as a perfect example).

If someone buys when rates are high, they lock in the low price. And they can pass less in interest by making extra principal payments, or refinancing if rates ever go down. However, if you lock in the high price (with low rates), there's really nothing you can do to improve the financial outcome.
 
   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #542  
I'm not sure this is always good advice.

For many things (like housing), there's an inverse relationship between cost to borrow and price, as people can only afford to pay so much on the monthly payment. So when rates are higher, prices come down, and vice versa (again, look at the housing market as a perfect example).

If someone buys when rates are high, they lock in the low price. And they can pass less in interest by making extra principal payments, or refinancing if rates ever go down. However, if you lock in the high price (with low rates), there's really nothing you can do to improve the financial outcome.

No advice is always all good without some mods. But the basic principle still applies. When rates are high, buy a house that needs repair and save on price and high rates both. You can still live in it.

When rates on new houses are high is when old ones are bargains.
Then when rates change, you can move up. It is just a matter of letting your expectations get in step with the market. That, and being willing to fix things rather than paying not to.
 
   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #544  
I'm not sure this is always good advice.

For many things (like housing), there's an inverse relationship between cost to borrow and price, as people can only afford to pay so much on the monthly payment. So when rates are higher, prices come down, and vice versa (again, look at the housing market as a perfect example).

If someone buys when rates are high, they lock in the low price. And they can pass less in interest by making extra principal payments, or refinancing if rates ever go down. However, if you lock in the high price (with low rates), there's really nothing you can do to improve the financial outcome.

Carrying these points further.....

For the past two years in Middle Tennessee, real estate prices increased at an unprecedented rate as people rushed to buy whatever came on the market due to mortgage interest rates being under 3% for months .... then under 5%. Brokers would list on Friday, have open houses on Sunday and sort through the highest and best offers on Monday with bids significantly over list price.

When the Fed started raising rates, the bidding over list started to be reduced about June and houses are taking weeks instead of days to sell. Asking prices are still at elevated levels even though the 30 year mortgage rate has been over 7% recently. (7.20% this morning).

Although inventory levels have increased somewhat, there appears to be a reluctance to list for sale because many have figured out that their new mortgage payment on a replacement home equivalent to what they already own would double at the inflated price of homes today along with the higher mortgage interest rates, insurance costs, and property taxes not to mention the cost of everything else that eats up household budgets.

It's fairly obvious from Jerome Powell's comments and the increases in the Fed rate that they are attempting to somewhat reset the housing market that they blew up in the first place by lowering rates that much to begin with. Between price increases and interest rate increases, home affordability is at its worst since about 2007 thanks to the Fed. In addition, real estate listing activity has been frozen because people who locked in mortgages at these artificially low 3-5% rates aren't going to refi at higher rates or list their homes for sale when their new mortgage payment on a replacement home would double.

Although the Fed is attempting to partly undo what it caused in the first place, it remains to be seen if listing activity will unfreeze or whether people who locked in these 3-5% rates will just sit tight for the next 30 years or until an unforeseen job loss or death will result in their home being listed for sale.

The worst of all worlds for potential homebuyers would be a real estate market in which listings are few because of these 3-5% mortgage rates for those that have them, high prices because of few listings, and high interest rates because the Fed finally figured out printing too much money too fast causes inflation that they now have to fight by raising rates.
 
   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #545  
My comments are based on a declining economy. Look at these numbers from just 2 years ago compared to today. Get out and vote.
 

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   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining
  • Thread Starter
#546  
As far as high interest and these poor financial times, the answer to that one is simple.
When the interest rates are high, DON'T BORROW!!
When interest rates are high become a lender.

I'm not good at "reading between the lines" - or I might say I think I am good, but keep gettihg it wrong. What I am saying is I still don't get the point about Deere.
Scotty, Greg Embury in the article said, ""I chase dealer share - not market share - and I have to earn that. I can't demand it; I can't get it any other way than to earn it from our dealers." He's making an indirect reference to Deere in that statement. Deere demands their dealers only carry their line of equipment. Lawn Land is one such recent example of this. They don't want to compete with any other brands which takes away and erodes consumer choice. They want a captive audience.

I have studied Deere and Kubota very closely the last few years and what I have taken away from it is the manufacturers have to create enough value in the premium tractors to convince consumers to spend the extra money and how they go about doing that is what distinguishes them from each other. Deere uses obsolescence in economy models by leaving things off that either make the ride miserable or the tractor ill equipped for the job which forces consumers to jump to a premium model and price point. Kubota on the other hand uses a different strategy. Kubota tries to earn the customers extra dollars by creating enough value through refinement, sophistication and electronics in the premium model tractors that they are willing to make the additional investment. Deere puts the customer in the position where they have to choose between something really bad or really good. Kubota puts the customer in the position where they can choose between something good or something great depending on their budget and required tastes. They compete in very different ways.
 
   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining
  • Thread Starter
#547  
My comments are based on a declining economy. Look at these numbers from just 2 years ago compared to today. Get out and vote.
People got out and voted two years ago and look what we ended up with. I won't say anymore about this here on this thread and rest my case for the time being.
 
   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #548  
Manufacturers generally don't like their dealers to carry competing lines of equipment. Given the carrying cost of inventory, not sure many dealers could afford to stock multiple competing lines of equipment.

Not sure what the market shares are today, but in the 1970s in Middle Tennessee, the predominant brands were International Harvester, Ford, John Deere and Massey Ferguson. Hadn't heard of Kubota, Yanmar or any other brand like that in those days. Today, John Deere and Kubota have more dealers in my area than anyone else. The Kubota dealers also seem to be more independent of one another.
 
   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #549  
Cahaba Valley Farms said " People got out and voted two years ago and look what we ended up with. I won't say anymore about this here on this thread and rest my case for the time being."

People got out and voted alright. Some of them twice. Some of them from out of state, some of them from as far away as Mexico and the grave!!!
A PA judge has just ruled that the vote counters must follow the state rules when counting out of date and no date votes in what has become a very tight race for God knows why - I really IDK why!
Cahaba
Love your avatar and all the you tube shorts associated with the Buster Scruggs character
 
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   / New Tractor Sales Are Declining #550  
People got and voted alright. Some of them twice, Some of them from out of state, some of them from as far away as Mexico and the grave!
A PA judge has just ruled that the vote counters must follow the state rules in what has become a very tight race for God knows why IDK.
Love your avatar and all the you tube shorts associated with the Buster Scruggs character
In the words of Rudy G. “you’re Honor, we have lots of theories but no evidence.”
 
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