I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped

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   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #81  
Estimates are all over the place for the ‘overall break even point’


Nobody on this thread knows any better.

Conjecture at best.
 
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #82  
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #83  
Don't believe your lying eyes...right?

Estimates in that article 8,000km to 700,000km

I’ll pick something in that range. Seems safe with zero actual fact gathering and analysis of my own.
 
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #84  
Like when doctors used to say smoking cigarettes was healthy?
I remember when I was a little kid, probably not even in kindergarten yet and our family doctor used to walk in the the room with a cigarette in his mouth. LOL
 
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #85  
If I ever purchase an EV it won't be because it's cleaner. It will be because it has better performance and is cheaper to own. I don't give a rat's a$$ about climate change. I burn anything that's flammable that I need to get rid of. I would be a complete hypocrite if I used that reasoning. I'm not saying an EV is cheaper to own yet but I think they will be in the future.
 
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #86  
Let me explain it this way...

100 years ago when oil was found and they started to process, store it, and use it; it was a very dirty process. Today most of the oil and subsequent use has been streamlined and very efficient. Efficiency usually brings cleanliness.

Today we have to get batteries from Lithium and Cobalt. Those process are just like oil's beginnings, it's a very dirty process. With Lithium, it's not like drilling, it's major mining and settling ponds. Now it will get better, but it took decades for oil to make that happen.

So we don't have to drill down into any process to figure out which one is cleaner today.

I always found it amazing how the cracking process yields more Volume than what goes in.

Battery reclamation for EVs is really taking off now and EV manufacturers like Tesla believe reclamation is cost competitive vs. mining for the raw materials.

Hopefully the Salton Sea area can become a mining business success.
I remember when I was a little kid, probably not even in kindergarten yet and our family doctor used to walk in the the room with a cigarette in his mouth. LOL


Maybe Camels

 
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #87  
I don't think the argument is which vehicle, electric or gas, is cleaner. The argument is do we need to end gas and diesel products in our society and replace them with new unproven products because of claimed existential threats by some politicians and corporations who themselves will gain wealth and power from this political agenda?

One of the earliest and scariest doom and gloom claims by Al Gore in 2006 was that global warming will cause the glaciers to melt resulting the oceans to rise 20 feet by now and populated lands around the world would be flooded never came true.

Lies might temporarily fool the people but the truth lasts forever.
 
   / I love electric vehicles. But increasingly I feel duped #88  
Rowan Atkinson

Electric motoring is, in theory, a subject about which I should know something. My first university degree was in electrical and electronic engineering, with a subsequent master’s in control systems. Combine this, perhaps surprising, academic pathway with a lifelong passion for the motorcar, and you can see why I was drawn into an early adoption of electric vehicles. I bought my first electric hybrid 18 years ago and my first pure electric car nine years ago and (notwithstanding our poor electric charging infrastructure) have enjoyed my time with both very much. Electric vehicles may be a bit soulless, but they’re wonderful mechanisms: fast, quiet and, until recently, very cheap to run. But increasingly, I feel a little duped. When you start to drill into the facts, electric motoring doesn’t seem to be quite the environmental panacea it is claimed to be.

As you may know, the government has proposed a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030. The problem with the initiative is that it seems to be based on conclusions drawn from only one part of a car’s operating life: what comes out of the exhaust pipe. Electric cars, of course, have zero exhaust emissions, which is a welcome development, particularly in respect of the air quality in city centres. But if you zoom out a bit and look at a bigger picture that includes the car’s manufacture, the situation is very different. In advance of the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021, Volvo released figures claiming that greenhouse gas emissions during production of an electric car are 70% higher than when manufacturing a petrol one. How so? The problem lies with the lithium-ion batteries fitted currently to nearly all electric vehicles: they’re absurdly heavy, many rare earth metals and huge amounts of energy are required to make them, and they only last about 10 years. It seems a perverse choice of hardware with which to lead the automobile’s fight against the climate crisis.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of effort is going into finding something better. New, so-called solid-state batteries are being developed that should charge more quickly and could be about a third of the weight of the current ones – but they are years away from being on sale, by which time, of course, we will have made millions of overweight electric cars with rapidly obsolescing batteries. Hydrogen is emerging as an interesting alternative fuel, even though we are slow in developing a truly “green” way of manufacturing it. It can be used in one of two ways. It can power a hydrogen fuel cell (essentially, a kind of battery); the car manufacturer Toyota has poured a lot of money into the development of these. Such a system weighs half of an equivalent lithium-ion battery and a car can be refuelled with hydrogen at a filling station as fast as with petrol.

If the lithium-ion battery is an imperfect device for electric cars, it’s a complete non-starter for trucks because of its weight; for such vehicles hydrogen can be injected directly into a new kind of piston engine. JCB, the company that makes yellow diggers, has made huge strides with hydrogen engines and hopes to put them into production in the next couple of years. If hydrogen wins the race to power trucks – and as a result every filling station stocks it – it could be a popular and accessible choice for cars.

But let’s zoom out even further and consider the whole life cycle of an automobile. The biggest problem we need to address in society’s relationship with the car is the “fast fashion” sales culture that has been the commercial template of the car industry for decades. Currently, on average we keep our new cars for only three years before selling them on, driven mainly by the ubiquitous three-year leasing model. This seems an outrageously profligate use of the world’s natural resources when you consider what great condition a three-year-old car is in. When I was a child, any car that was five years old was a bucket of rust and halfway through the gate of the scrapyard. Not any longer. You can now make a car for £15,000 that, with tender loving care, will last for 30 years. It’s sobering to think that if the first owners of new cars just kept them for five years, on average, instead of the current three, then car production and the CO2 emissions associated with it, would be vastly reduced. Yet we’d be enjoying the same mobility, just driving slightly older cars.

We need also to acknowledge what a great asset we have in the cars that currently exist (there are nearly 1.5bn of them worldwide). In terms of manufacture, these cars have paid their environmental dues and, although it is sensible to reduce our reliance on them, it would seem right to look carefully at ways of retaining them while lowering their polluting effect. Fairly obviously, we could use them less. As an environmentalist once said to me, if you really need a car, buy an old one and use it as little as possible. A sensible thing to do would be to speed up the development of synthetic fuel, which is already being used in motor racing; it’s a product based on two simple notions: one, the environmental problem with a petrol engine is the petrol, not the engine and, two, there’s nothing in a barrel of oil that can’t be replicated by other means. Formula One is going to use synthetic fuel from 2026. There are many interpretations of the idea but the German car company Porsche is developing a fuel in Chile using wind to power a process whose main ingredients are water and carbon dioxide. With more development, it should be usable in all petrol-engine cars, rendering their use virtually CO2-neutral.


Increasingly, I’m feeling that our honeymoon with electric cars is coming to an end, and that’s no bad thing: we’re realising that a wider range of options need to be explored if we’re going to properly address the very serious environmental problems that our use of the motor car has created. We should keep developing hydrogen, as well as synthetic fuels to save the scrapping of older cars which still have so much to give, while simultaneously promoting a quite different business model for the car industry, in which we keep our new vehicles for longer, acknowledging their amazing but overlooked longevity.

Friends with an environmental conscience often ask me, as a car person, whether they should buy an electric car. I tend to say that if their car is an old diesel and they do a lot of city centre motoring, they should consider a change. But otherwise, hold fire for now. Electric propulsion will be of real, global environmental benefit one day, but that day has yet to dawn.




and a Counterpoint article written 4 days later.

 
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