Market Watch

[rScotty]

I don't believe that the economy is particularly bad, or will worsen - but I do see that a lot of folks are at their credit limit and worried. "YOLO" is self limiting....

In past economic problem times, part of the cure has been an expanded Used Market combined with less reliance on established dealer shops. Instead, independent shops suddenly pop up. Aided as unused commercial property becomes available for inexpensive rental.
There is also much greater reliance on home fix-it abilities as folks start trading thier free time for $$.
That may ultimately be a good thing.... U tube is a great educational resource.

Those changes happened before and could again. Us oldsters saw it in the manufacturing downturn of the 1960s. Houses sold for the cost of materials, industrial property for even less. Tools became expensive and new sales plummeted. Anything could kick it off. A technical revolution happening at the same time as a social one does is one possibility, high taxation is a classic cause. Whenever social/economic change happens, it is always surprising afterwards to reflect on how quickly things can change - months, rather than years.

The thing to keep in mind is that when things change, some people come out better than others. Those already buying used and doing their own handiwork have solved half the problem and are on a track to come out ahead no matter which way things shake out.

rScotty

 

[5030]

I don't agree but I won't argue with your presumptions. They are after all presumptions.

 

[jyoutz]

That might play out in New Mexico but up here in the snow and salt belt, it don't. If you can get 4 years before cancer sets in, you are real lucky.

Yeah, that’s unfortunate. I would never buy anything new if I lived in the rust belt. We never see rust here, and if there’s a rusted vehicle for sale, it’s basically unsellable.

 

[5030]

Yeah, that’s unfortunate. I would never buy anything new if I lived in the rust belt. We never see rust here, and if there’s a rusted vehicle for sale, it’s basically unsellable.

Only flogged out vehicles I saw on my last Mule Deer hunt in NM was abandoned cars and trucks riddled with bullet holes in remote areas. Don't know how they got there but one thing for sure was they were all shot up.

 

[rScotty]

I don't agree but I won't argue with your presumptions. They are after all presumptions.

You don't need me to say you are free to disagree - in fact I'm glad you do.

Yes, they are simply presumptions based on my own feelings.
Probably too much of what I believe is based on my own presumption that people are better off and happier if they do more for themselves and buy less of what others sell.

I know it isn't a popular philosophy popular these days. I expected disagreement - but sometimes it comes from a direction I didn't expect.

rScotty

 

[jyoutz]

Only flogged out vehicles I saw on my last Mule Deer hunt in NM was abandoned cars and trucks riddled with bullet holes in remote areas. Don't know how they got there but one thing for sure was they were all shot up.

I’ve been to Detroit. We cannot claim to be first in the category of junk cars. And actually there are few of those anymore because the scrap value has become high enough to get them hauled off to junkyards.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Tractors like any other good sold in a market economy are not immune to supply and demand. If the demand drops sharp enough for long enough sales incentives in the form of discounts will be coming. My local dealer has just started to grow a brain and figure this out although he has a long way to go to get anyone interested in buying.

 

[2manyrocks]

I don't believe that the economy is particularly bad, or will worsen - but I do see that a lot of folks are at their credit limit and worried. "YOLO" is self limiting....

In past economic problem times, part of the cure has been an expanded Used Market combined with less reliance on established dealer shops. Instead, independent shops suddenly pop up. Aided as unused commercial property becomes available for inexpensive rental.
There is also much greater reliance on home fix-it abilities as folks start trading thier free time for $$.
That may ultimately be a good thing.... U tube is a great educational resource.

Those changes happened before and could again. Us oldsters saw it in the manufacturing downturn of the 1960s. Houses sold for the cost of materials, industrial property for even less. Tools became expensive and new sales plummeted. Anything could kick it off. A technical revolution happening at the same time as a social one does is one possibility, high taxation is a classic cause. Whenever social/economic change happens, it is always surprising afterwards to reflect on how quickly things can change - months, rather than years.

The thing to keep in mind is that when things change, some people come out better than others. Those already buying used and doing their own handiwork have solved half the problem and are on a track to come out ahead no matter which way things shake out.

rScotty

Our small town had a IH dealer. I think there was a Ford tractor dealer in the next town over. Pretty much every town around us had one or the other as dealers. Money came hard for farmers, and they didn't part with it easily.

The buying debate was between buying a red tractor or a blue one in our community back in those days. Never heard of a Kubota, and people have might have thought you were nuts to buy anything other than a IH or a Ford although Massey Ferguson appears to have also been popular.

The dealers were smaller than the ones today. They never stocked a lot of tractors.

Those dealers have long since disappeared and many of the people who owned the dealerships as well as their mechanics have passed away. We no longer have a tractor dealership of any kind in our county. The nearest dealers are 30 miles away and they primarily sell Kubotas and New Holland. There are some shops that deal in lawn mowers that also sell Yanmars, Bad Boy, and TYM, but their customer base doesn't seem to be farmers.

Much of the farm land has been sold to developers who have built houses over what used to be farm land.

I suspect today's compact tractor buyers are more dependent on dealers to service their machines. The guys who use tractors to make a living probably learn to be mechanics to a degree out of necessity both due to the cost of dealer service and needing to keep their tractors running instead of waiting on the dealer for service.

 

[5030]

I’ve been to Detroit. We cannot claim to be first in the category of junk cars. And actually there are few of those anymore because the scrap value has become high enough to get them hauled off to junkyards.

Must not have been recently because like you, scrappers have done a good job there as well. Off to the scrap yard and then off to China....lol

 

[2manyrocks]

To complete the local history, tobacco was the cash money crop for farmers. The tobacco crop would mature and need to be cut, spiked, and put onto tobacco sticks around the heat of August. Then loaded onto a wagon and hand placed in the barn to dry. Around Nov. -Dec., the leaves had to be removed from the stalks by hand and then the crop hauled to the auction house for sale. They didn't get much money for all this work and they never found a way to mechanize all the hand work.