Future of HVAC and industry supply issues.

[Sigarms]

Hey Joe, when you going to get out the rat race ? LOL
Life is great on the other side ! LOL

I'm still in my late 50's, and I'm lucky that I love what I do. Don't get me wrong, work always will have it's headaches, but I pretty much can do what I do and am not tied to a desk 8 hours a day.

However, I don't own the company I work for

My wife is worried I'll be too much like my dad and work full time into my 70's and part time into my 80's LOL

Besides that, I still have two systems to replace in my own home, and I'll never get a better deal than while I'm working

 

[ultrarunner]

All the men in my family never retire… they just slow down until they croak is how my grandmother put it.

I can see the meaning of being engaged can add to quality of life… especially the farming side where there is always something needs doing…

One thing is a given… there are plenty of opportunities to earn a living and I don’t know a trade that isn’t hiring.

 

[kenmac]

I'm still in my late 50's, and I'm lucky that I love what I do. Don't get me wrong, work always will have it's headaches, but I pretty much can do what I do and am not tied to a desk 8 hours a day.

However, I don't own the company I work for

My wife is worried I'll be too much like my dad and work full time into my 70's and part time into my 80's LOL

Besides that, I still have two systems to replace in my own home, and I'll never get a better deal than while I'm working

well, After selling and retiring, I bought this farm, so I guess you could say, I'm not really retired. LOL
I just traded a paying job for a non paying job ! LOL

As you know, I installed this ducted VRF in my home a few yrs back. This thing is still performing great ! I do have one system I could probable replace for the upstairs, But not using the upstairs, I may just let this Trane system die with me ....

You know the saying 'it's hard to stop a trane'' LOL
It has been here since I purchased the place 6 yrs ago, so I'll let it ride for not.

With all the changes here now and coming, I'm glad I left ! Best decision I could have made !

Take care Joe, and live the good life !

 

[Sigarms]

With all the changes here now and coming, I'm glad I left ! Best decision I could have made !

That I can understand.

Next up, after the next refrigerant switch that only happened about 20 years ago from R22, the elimination of all 80% gas furnaces. The current president will probably get the blame for it, but the reality is manufactures knew this was coming and talking about it around 2018/2019, in part due to California.

 

[Sigarms]

I might have missed it for an answer, but the key question becomes exactly what is the timeframe to replace all the units?

If you want to buy 1 tractor, here is the price. If you want to buy 18 tractors here is the price.

I don't know anything about the tractor business, but I can tell you for a fact that even with 8 retrofit commercial 3 phase package units, that will get the manufacturers attention willing to work with the end user

No one knows what the future will bring, but you can plan and order WITH a commitment along with the possible options to your base order. At this point, it seems the issue is on the end user for not having a long term gameplan and known future expenses.

 

[ultrarunner]

Current 30 year site lease is up June 30 2024... So less than a year it could be lights out for this location.

The desire is to continue but others have the final word.

Until then I have aging equipment that we depend on...

On a separate note I’m sure coils are affected by the proximity to neighboring heritage eucalyptus trees which are protected by city ordinance.

They shower the roof and rooftop HVAC units continuously and after significant wind events the roof is carpeted…

 

[Sigarms]

Current 30 year site lease is up June 30 2024... So less than a year it could be lights out for this location.

The desire is to continue but others have the final word.

Until then I have aging equipment that we depend on...

Honestly, it sounds like a position you don't want yourself in.

As mentioned I not the brightest bulb in the factory, and I've never understood leasing. I guess there are tax advantages and it has to do with managing money as far as how it comes up on the P&L, but I'd always rather own something and have skin in the game, but I guess that may not be the smart money move.

 

[ultrarunner]

The hospital added 5 million in hard money back in 1994 for the renovation build out.

There was also an option to purchase and being privy to conversations it came down to maximizing the short term cash flow.

Remember each member of the board gathering and being asked if he or she planned to be practicing medicine 30 years in the future and if so should the option to purchase be exercised.

The CPA presented detailed graphs showing dollars in physician partner pockets well ahead of the purchasing curve.

To the very last one none the original partners remain today with all but one retired or passed away...

On the seniority list I am number 2 with a receptionist hired straight out of high school being number 1.

Having institutional knowledge has often proved very valuable...

 

[ultrarunner]

Honestly, it sounds like a position you don't want yourself in.

As mentioned I not the brightest bulb in the factory, and I've never understood leasing. I guess there are tax advantages and it has to do with managing money as far as how it comes up on the P&L, but I'd always rather own something and have skin in the game, but I guess that may not be the smart money move.

If it's a go the dollars of a bigger multi unit project should be in my favor.

Back in 1995 the Carrier rep made several visits during construction as did other manufacturers... my current thinking is this is not as common post pandemic?

I timed my last home mortgage payment to coincide with the work 30 year lease end just to hedge my bet...

 

[bnold]

ASHRAE will call median life at 15yrs for small commercial rooftops. 15-20 is generally plenty for small units of any brand.

Just got done setting 8 of the 33 units on this project, 10 more this month and the balance early September. Largest units are 52,000cfm. 4,200T plant on this one. 600T crane to lift relatively little/light unit sections due to reach.

Brands and support depends on location. IE Carrier is a small player in the DFW market, overshadowed by Trane, York/JCI, Daiken to a smaller degree in the commercial market. Aaron is generally reserved for specialty performance units or small commercial rooftops in school districts where they are hard spec’d.

Go somewhere else (location wise) and the order can be completely different. But you want good service and support, so that should weigh heavily on brand decision.

Pressure to go heat pump in lieu of gas isn’t a pressure we have seen yet. But on a retrofit could be a huge bummer on electric VAV reheat jobs where we are expecting compressor electrical load to drop when VAVs are utilizing electric heat (small commercial).