Market Watch

[Torvy]

Playing word games and tryng to make yourself "right" doesn't change the reality on the ground.
How quickly repenishment happens is the important thing.
It's simply a question of creating something at one rate and using it at another.
Economics works the same way.

Pot, kettle. I never claimed replacement rate. That was a straw man you set up. The question was always about whether new oil was still being created. I think that has been well and truly settled.

 

[Hay Dude]

Pot, kettle. I never claimed replacement rate. That was a straw man you set up. The question was always about whether new oil was still being created. I think that has been well and truly settled.

You can’t reason with these people, but your efforts are excellent.
As someone else said, thanks for bringing sanity & truth.

The earth has, currently is, and always will create additional fossil fuels with each passing day

 

[jyoutz]

@Torvy your attempts to bring them back to reality are commendable but I predict will be unsuccessful.

Reality? The argument is esoteric. Oil replenishment is something that occurs over eons that is irrelevant to human society.

 

[jyoutz]

Pot, kettle. I never claimed replacement rate. That was a straw man you set up. The question was always about whether new oil was still being created. I think that has been well and truly settled.

Ok, so in a couple of million years there will be new oil. You win.

 

[jyoutz]

Pretty rare for a company to get a lease today and start drilling tomorrow. Leases are also traded.

These leases are the accumulation of years of leasing and it always stays around ten million acres. You can go to the BLM website and see acres under lease and where they are.

 

[edgarrian]

The difference is the rate and production of the process, not the process itself. Clearly the science works. Keep in mind that it is not just a scientific theory, but a mature technology based on that theory that is being used all over the world to tap into oil today.

Many articles say that the process is continuous, but they also say that the rate changes the output. And that is the point they are making. Not surprising, most processes produce at a rate dependent on conditions.

In this case the initial conditions for a rate to produce well include a saturated carbon rich atmoshere, a dense biomass, techtonic activity over eons, and then a few million years to deposit commercial quantities.

That isn't flat earth, and wishing won't make it work.
Don't you find it a bit odd when people believe what they wish for instead of what is all around them?

I see you and another guy are battling it out about oil. I assume neither have worked in the industry. I come from 15 years and working for XTO which is a subsidiary of Exxon. Fossil fuel is wrong terminology for oil. It does not come from dinosaurs. Whether oil replenishes itself is not entirely true. When North Dakota first had its boom in the 2000's. This is the area i worked. Eastern side of montana was where all the work was. At the time. The go to for hydraulic fracturing was 25lb gel, and cross linker to carry the sand into formation. After about 3 years. This field became obsolete. Meaning the payout wasn't as good as it was just south of watford city ND. Which is where almost all the work is now. Are montanas wells still producing sure. But there is a steep drop off in production after a year and half. The technology has changed for drilling and fracturing. They drill down10,500ft and then can go out another 15000 ft. Fracturing was all about thick fluid and low rate. That has changed to slick water frac which is high rate. Basically what happens in North dakota. The high rate pressures up the area. So that other wells will start to flow better. Meaning more production. The wells in this area still have steep drop offs after a year half. but as I state you can save them with high rate, high pressure factoring. So in theory it comes down to how quickly the operator can make money. As long as the well is going to produce. They will keep it going. If it doesn't. Then obviously plug and abandon is the next step. Which does happen more often than not.

It should also be noted that OPEC has cut oil production a few times the last few years. Oil prices are coming down bc the economy isn't as good as so many think it is. OPEC cut production to boost prices. Prices have been shrinking for sometime now. The US is producing the most oil it has ever so my theory is OPEC will want market share back. They will bring back oil production what it was and prices will fall dramatically. Then of course biden will take credit. Like all presidents do.

 

[Torvy]

Ok, so in a couple of million years there will be new oil. You win.

That's the hubris. Every minute there is new oil. We don't know exactly how much, but it is not some magic zero now and poof in a million years oil shows up. It is constantly being formed.

 

[jyoutz]

That's the hubris. Every minute there is new oil. We don't know exactly how much, but it is not some magic zero now and poof in a million years oil shows up. It is constantly being formed.

I would be interested in hearing the thoughts from a geologist on this discussion. I know that I read outlier science and theories from people who publish about forest and fire ecology on a regular basis. Geology isn’t in my field of expertise.

 

[jyoutz]

I see you and another guy are battling it out about oil. I assume neither have worked in the industry. I come from 15 years and working for XTO which is a subsidiary of Exxon. Fossil fuel is wrong terminology for oil. It does not come from dinosaurs. Whether oil replenishes itself is not entirely true. When North Dakota first had its boom in the 2000's. This is the area i worked. Eastern side of montana was where all the work was. At the time. The go to for hydraulic fracturing was 25lb gel, and cross linker to carry the sand into formation. After about 3 years. This field became obsolete. Meaning the payout wasn't as good as it was just south of watford city ND. Which is where almost all the work is now. Are montanas wells still producing sure. But there is a steep drop off in production after a year and half. The technology has changed for drilling and fracturing. They drill down10,500ft and then can go out another 15000 ft. Fracturing was all about thick fluid and low rate. That has changed to slick water frac which is high rate. Basically what happens in North dakota. The high rate pressures up the area. So that other wells will start to flow better. Meaning more production. The wells in this area still have steep drop offs after a year half. but as I state you can save them with high rate, high pressure factoring. So in theory it comes down to how quickly the operator can make money. As long as the well is going to produce. They will keep it going. If it doesn't. Then obviously plug and abandon is the next step. Which does happen more often than not.

It should also be noted that OPEC has cut oil production a few times the last few years. Oil prices are coming down bc the economy isn't as good as so many think it is. OPEC cut production to boost prices. Prices have been shrinking for sometime now. The US is producing the most oil it has ever so my theory is OPEC will want market share back. They will bring back oil production what it was and prices will fall dramatically. Then of course ***** will take credit. Like all presidents do.

Fossils aren’t just dinosaurs, plants can also be fossilized. But I think the term is more general in that it refers to very old organic matter. Your market assumptions seem logical. We’ll see how it plays out.

 

[Hay Dude]

A huge amount of oil comes from deposits on ocean floors.