Market Watch

[aesanders]

Well, it's a national economy. That's an average over a lot of land and a lot of different types of businesses. Overall it is doing surprisingly well - investments and jobs are up, wages are up, and inflation is down. But that is looking at the whole country; it doesn't mean every area is experiencing the same thing.

Inflation is down? From what? And job market is not great. Sure, stats can be twisted to say it is performing, but it is still in recovery from COVID. And I live in Florida that has fared better than most areas of the country

I will be getting a bump in pay at my work, but it won’t cover the increase in my health insurance, let alone everything else that has gone up.

You can keep spewing your hot air, but you are wrong.

 

[edgarrian]

...It seems strange that something as simple as the economy turns out to be so difficult to predict, but give the financial world a shove in any direction and only half the predictions come true.

Or they are hidden b/c greed takes away sense. I can remember in 2005. When banks hired outside firms to write reports about the health of the institutions. Now my thought on this is why would any bank hire a firm to write report that wouldn't show how healthy they are. Turns out they were misleading and we went into a deep recession that nobody saw coming. I also remember lots of no down payments on houses. Odd interest rate. People getting loans with zero income. I was in residential excavating at the time in indianapolis. It made me nervous enough to look for career change. I did. I went into O&G. The excavating company I worked for layed off everyone except for foreman. My career change lasted 15 years and it was a good move as I was able to make some great money and better position myself. Sometimes the writing is on the wall. Its just how well you can read into it. Or at least be willing to say i think this is a reasonable outcome. Im going to make a change.

Look at what they already had to do to insure deposits at a number of banks. They had to insure them past the 250k so that it wouldn't send off a mountain of chaos. I would imagine there are cracks beneath the surface that haven't been noticed yet. Maybe im wrong. I hope I am. I dont think we are out of the woods yet. Only time will tell. But history shows me to be a bit skeptical about the health of the economy. Its ok. Its better to be aware than to be thinking of reasons why its not headed for a fall

 

[edgarrian]

Well, it's a national economy. That's an average over a lot of land and a lot of different types of businesses. Overall it is doing surprisingly well - investments and jobs are up, wages are up, and inflation is down. But that is looking at the whole country; it doesn't mean every area is experiencing the same thing.

inflation is down YOY but it has compounded over the last few years They will not recede either unless there is major downturn. Real wages are not keeping up. Real wages are the actual income you have after paying inflation. Consumer debt is getting bad. Repo is heating up. People are upside down from purchasing homes over the last few years b/c of said inflation.

 

[edgarrian]

I’m doing my part to help the economy…I continue to buy Scotch whether it is on sale or not.

Mike

I just purchased glenmorangie 18 year for 110. It was a 100. Its good stuff

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Inflation is down. That term means we went from 9% inflation to 3.1%….


It means the RATE of increase is down, but increases will continue. Also still above the Fed target. Prices will not fall. The inflation we experienced, is the new baseline. We would need a DEFLATIONARY cycle to reduce prices, but you probably wouldn’t like how that happens.

 

[Hay Dude]

Well, it's a national economy. That's an average over a lot of land and a lot of different types of businesses. Overall it is doing surprisingly well - investments and jobs are up, wages are up, and inflation is down. But that is looking at the whole country; it doesn't mean every area is experiencing the same thing.

This is a classic example of “can’t see the forest through the trees”.

Inflation is kind of like the immigration problem.
15 million people have illegally crossed the border since ‘20.
Now there’s still a lot crossing the border, but it’s off its’ record highs.
However, 15 million have already crossed and they aren’t going back. It’s “built in”.

The damage is done. Just like inflation.

 

[rScotty]

Inflation is down. That term means we went from 9% inflation to 3.1%….


It means the RATE of increase is down, but increases will continue. Also still above the Fed target. Prices will not fall. The inflation we experienced, is the new baseline. We would need a DEFLATIONARY cycle to reduce prices, but you probably wouldn’t like how that happens.

This is a classic example of “can’t see the forest through the trees”.

Inflation is kind of like the immigration problem.
15 million people have illegally crossed the border since ‘20.
Now there’s still a lot crossing the border, but it’s off its’ record highs.
However, 15 million have already crossed and they aren’t going back. It’s “built in”.

The damage is done. Just like inflation.

No, I think it is a case of only seeing the forest that is around you. I've no doubt what you see is real to you.

My guess is that the TBNers who are negative on the economy live in an area where the economy is down. The newscasters emphasize the negative, but It isn't that way everywhere.

Also, a lot of TBNers are older and either on or approaching a fixed income. Many on this forum have moved or are looking to move to a more rural area with lower expenses. That shapes the viewpoint here. As a group we TBNers tend to do things ourselves instead of using our income to pay someone else to do the work....that's fine individually, but it doesn't help grow an economy.

Of course there is inflation. There always is. It's a part of the economy. Be glad it isn't half so bad as it was in the 70s and 80s. Inflation then didn't make it hard to get a house loan; it made it impossible. Educational loans hadn't even been invented.

rScotty

 

[edgarrian]

No, I think it is a case of only seeing the forest that is around you. I've no doubt what you see is real to you.

My guess is that the TBNers who are negative on the economy live in an area where the economy is down. The newscasters emphasize the negative, but It isn't that way everywhere.

Also, a lot of TBNers are older and either on or approaching a fixed income. Many on this forum have moved or are looking to move to a more rural area with lower expenses. That shapes the viewpoint here. As a group we TBNers tend to do things ourselves instead of using our income to pay someone else to do the work....that's fine individually, but it doesn't help grow an economy.

Of course there is inflation. There always is. It's a part of the economy. Be glad it isn't half so bad as it was in the 70s and 80s. Inflation then didn't make it hard to get a house loan; it made it impossible. Educational loans hadn't even been invented.

rScotty

We purchased 8 acres of wooded property in the country 9 years ago. Heat are home with wood, less property taxes, maintain cars and all that. I would be considered the not growing the economy person. But that hasn't changed my view as how i see the economy as of right now. Since the great recession we have virtually printed money at will, kept interest at historical lows, made access to college funds much easier. We had government loans for college in the 50s but going to college wasn't nearly as mainstream as it is today. While the 70s and 80s presented problems for gaining a mortgage. People still did it. Hell my parents did. Things were done a bit differently back then and you could navigate around higher interest rates but you are right it was extremely high then.

As for the TBNers who are negative. Its not b/c its down in my area or the newscasters as I dont even watch the news. Its just the writing on the wall. You can't have 4 years of printing money at the rate we have and not expect anything bad to happen. It seem close minded. Am i afraid of the next recession. Not at all. I could care less. Im prepared. Many are not. As for the next depression. Thats another story. Could it happen? Absolutely. Even the most prepared would find themselves in trouble if this occurred. I also think that how our political leaders are trying to avoid another big recession or depression is by more policy. Which i dont think is a good idea at all. More policy means less freedom. And a lot of folk i know that live in the country agree that is happening

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I can grow a lot of my own food. Repair my cars. And I don't owe a cent to a bank. I don't want to weather a major downturn, but I can.

 

[rScotty]

We purchased 8 acres of wooded property in the country 9 years ago. Heat are home with wood, less property taxes, maintain cars and all that. I would be considered the not growing the economy person. But that hasn't changed my view as how i see the economy as of right now. Since the great recession we have virtually printed money at will, kept interest at historical lows, made access to college funds much easier. We had government loans for college in the 50s but going to college wasn't nearly as mainstream as it is today. While the 70s and 80s presented problems for gaining a mortgage. People still did it. Hell my parents did. Things were done a bit differently back then and you could navigate around higher interest rates but you are right it was extremely high then.

As for the TBNers who are negative. Its not b/c its down in my area or the newscasters as I dont even watch the news. Its just the writing on the wall. You can't have 4 years of printing money at the rate we have and not expect anything bad to happen. It seem close minded. Am i afraid of the next recession. Not at all. I could care less. Im prepared. Many are not. As for the next depression. Thats another story. Could it happen? Absolutely. Even the most prepared would find themselves in trouble if this occurred. I also think that how our political leaders are trying to avoid another big recession or depression is by more policy. Which i dont think is a good idea at all. More policy means less freedom. And a lot of folk i know that live in the country agree that is happening

My point is that the economy right now is not bad everywhere in our country. It's not even bad for a lot of middle class working TBNers. I know it is bad for some, but it's not that way everywhere; not all doom and gloom. If nothing else, look at sales of houses and new tractors - people making those purchases obviously have confidence in the future. I'm going to bet on them.

As for your thoughts on the large amount of money being put into the system and the policy restrictions - those things bother me too. Lots. I don't see how pushing that much more debt-based money into the system is healthy, but I keep reminding myself that financial predictions have a way of being wrong.

I sometimes wonder if that much excess debt can can be removed in the form of completed giant projects? Rebuild the coastal lands, refill the aquifers, conquer cancer, mine the asteroids??? How much of our current debt could we retire if we did any of those? Or does it work that way? I think it does.....

The policy restrictions bother me more. Personal freedom will survive, but I worry that policy restrictions will reduce the innovation we need in order to do those big projects. And if we can't do the projects, the debt problem returns.

rScotty