Future of HVAC and industry supply issues.

[ultrarunner]

Yep… cost up, availability and reliability down with the trade off suppose to be better efficiency.

Just left and 92 outside but 96 at intake… operating rooms 68.5 so good for now.

The installer had a heck of a time dailing-in… so many alarms shutting things down the first 2 weeks.

Ended up adding hot gas bypass and unloaders.

Not sure when air handler arrives.

Instead of 2 compressors now 4… instead of 4 condenser fans now 3.

The 30 year old 20hp Baldor airhandler motor just keeps going 24/7…

 

[Sigarms]

Just the other day Bosch bought out JCI/York for 8.1 billion dollars. JCI keeps 50 ton and higher and their controls division.

Back in May Lennox and Samsung has joined in a joint partnership. Samsung owns 50.1% and Lennox 49.9% (no different than what Mitsubishi and Trane did a couple of years ago).

 

[ultrarunner]

Our new unit with Hot Gas Bypass retrofitted sure passes a lot of gas! I hear it most times when in the area.

In the heat wave which for us is nudging 100 the new 50 ton is producing set point 53 degree air.

 

[Sigarms]

Convinced that in another 10-15 years there will be nothing but inverter compressors in residential split system use.

Need to replace my attic system which is a dual fuel 80% gas furnace. Rather heat pump, but can't get the power upstairs for the strip heat.

Originally going to go Bosch dual fuel using a cheaper 80% (non Bosch gas furnace). Came across a new horizontal discharge inverter outdoor unit, 100% heating capacity down to 5F OAT that will work with any indoor air handler.

Just the fact that both options I'm looking at involve a inverter compressor, would NEVER of thought that possible 5 years ago due to price point.

Reality is due to the SEER2 requirements of 2023, some manufacturers now only start off with a 2 stage compressor.

Of course, what I really would like is a single stage piston because I should get 30 years out of it. Technology is great, but more parts, more chances something goes wrong...

 

[Camofurever1]

Convinced that in another 10-15 years there will be nothing but inverter compressors in residential split system use.

Need to replace my attic system which is a dual fuel 80% gas furnace. Rather heat pump, but can't get the power upstairs for the strip heat.

Originally going to go Bosch dual fuel using a cheaper 80% (non Bosch gas furnace). Came across a new horizontal discharge inverter outdoor unit, 100% heating capacity down to 5F OAT that will work with any indoor air handler.

Just the fact that both options I'm looking at involve a inverter compressor, would NEVER of thought that possible 5 years ago due to price point.

Reality is due to the SEER2 requirements of 2023, some manufacturers now only start off with a 2 stage compressor.

Of course, what I really would like is a single stage piston because I should get 30 years out of it. Technology is great, but more parts, more chances something goes wrong...

Have you researched a hybrid system? Heat pump for AC and heat down to 36Deg. Then it automatically switches to gas heat below 36 deg. I bought one back in 2017 to replace my old HVAC unit. The ROI was under 36 months. Cut my electric bill consistently by over 40% every month, cut my gas bill by 75%, heats and cools much better, much quieter and a smaller foot print.

Hybrid Heat Systems: How Do They Work? - Trane®

Learn how a traditional heat pump can be combined with a furnace, creating a hybrid system that optimizes energy efficiency year-round.

www.trane.com

 

[Sigarms]

Have you researched a hybrid system? Heat pump for AC and heat down to 36Deg. Then it automatically switches to gas heat below 36 deg. I bought one back in 2017 to replace my old HVAC unit. The ROI was under 36 months. Cut my electric bill consistently by over 40% every month, cut my gas bill by 75%, heats and cools much better, much quieter and a smaller foot print.

Hybrid Heat Systems: How Do They Work? - Trane®

Learn how a traditional heat pump can be combined with a furnace, creating a hybrid system that optimizes energy efficiency year-round.

www.trane.com

A Hybrid system is nothing more than a dual fuel system. "Hybrid" is a catchy marketing name from the manufacturer. No different than "Puron" or "Hyperheat"...

I installed a duel duel fuel system in my attic about 18 years ago. Job is a major PITA, and since the system is R22, although I may get 3 or 4 more years out of the R22 system, rather buy a R410A now, and perhaps install some springtime or fall when the attic temp is more conducive to working long hours during the day.

BTY, the ROI at least in my area isn't worth buying a hybrid / dual fuel system if your on natural gas, but when you're on LP, it's an absolute no brainer at least in my area where LP is around $3 per gallon. Needless to say, I'm on LP.

That said, a hybrid / dual fuel could be worth it for LP in my area with a inverter compressor on the heat pump, but with a 100% heating capacity down to 5 OAT with some of these outdoor units, reality is I'm buying the furnace pretty much for a blower only because I'll never run the gas furnace, and for the price point, straight heat pump would be a lot less money on my end with a inverter compressor with high heat.

 

[arto98607]

We have a 21 year old 5 ton, 2-stage, 2-zone geothermal heating/cooling with variable speed fan and long ground loop.
Sometime last year just out out of curiosity I asked the installer a verbal rough cost of single stage 5 ton replacement unit with variable speed compressor & fan unit.

As I recall he said something like roughly $23,000 to replace just the unit itself in the existing utility room and leave all else as is.

The unit is in very well protected space, the return air has very good filtering which is maintained regularly by me, and system includes a large HRV with it's own air filtering.

Hopefully it will last many more years, but I realize at some point the electronic parts will become hard to find...

I like the idea of single variable speed compressor but wondering how proven those are for residential use?

 

[Sigarms]

I like the idea of single variable speed compressor but wondering how proven those are for residential use?

If you're talking geothermal for replacement only, only a few manufacturers offer a variable speed compressor.

Generally, all residential use unit bearing equipment only have one compressor.

If you already have geothermal system in place and your only replacing the equipment, stay geothermal would be my suggestion to you.

If you were my brother living across the coast from me, anytime you're spending a substantial amount of money, my professional suggestion to you pertaining to HVAC would be to get at LEAST get 3 quotes and compare the price vs knowledge.

 

[ultrarunner]

If you're talking geothermal for replacement only, only a few manufacturers offer a variable speed compressor.

Generally, all residential use unit bearing equipment only have one compressor.

If you already have geothermal system in place and your only replacing the equipment, stay geothermal would be my suggestion to you.

If you were my brother living across the coast from me, anytime you're spending a substantial amount of money, my professional suggestion to you pertaining to HVAC would be to get at LEAST get 3 quotes and compare the price vs knowledge.

Yep... Carrier rooftop package unit $9500 or $24,000

Same unit with wide variation in price

24k is a local very large company.

9500 is a family owned 20 employee business 90 miles away.

So much of our commercial work us coming from the valley and even with travel valley consistently under bids the locals.

Job was bid to be done on a Saturday... big company added lots up up charges.

Family company no up charge and actually preferred to do after business hours...

 

[Sigarms]

Yep... Carrier rooftop package unit $9500 or $24,000

Same unit with wide variation in price

24k is a local very large company.

9500 is a family owned 20 employee business 90 miles away.

So much of our commercial work us coming from the valley and even with travel valley consistently under bids the locals.

Job was bid to be done on a Saturday... big company added lots up up charges.

Family company no up charge and actually preferred to do after business hours...

You can't buy a 7.5 ton package heat pump in pretty much ANY brand with an economizer for $9,500 let alone with a curb adaptor

What the trend now is large investment firms are buying 20 man plus operations paying the owner a good sum to either retire or generally to "stay on" for a couple of years. They then bring in bean counters who know nothing about the HVAC industry to run the company. A standard residential job that they sold for 10K is now going for 20K. This happened before just before I moved to NC in 2001. It was kind of funny, the companies that sold out in 1999, and 2-4 years later the original owners bought their companies back for pennies on the dollar. If this new surge of investment bought companies will last, time will tell.

One big player in the "buy out game" is Alpine investments, ironically located in San Francisco. Their subsidiary company who "specializes" in HVAC is Apex Partners. I can tell you this for a fact... last couple of years one of the largest HVAC companies in NC and AZ sold out to a investment company in NC which I NEVER thought possible (I knew the company in Arizona pretty well). I just happened to look at their website, and they talk about the original owner, and the two brothers who later bought the company to make it a success, but nothing about new ownership by a company in NC. What I can tell you is that given time, the original owner / owners of the company that sold really isn't happy with the direction his "new company" is going, but since he sold out, he generally doesn't have a say in running the show anymore.

The MO of most of these companies are to keep the same local company name, same phone, same website, and make it seem like you're still buying from your local HVAC company. It's sometimes kind of funny. Know a guy who lost out on a simple changeout. 1/2 days work, small residential tonnage heat pump, he came in at 8K for the job. Problem is, investment company "A" came in a 15K and investment company "B" came in at 12k. The end user thought the guy who came in at 8K was a hack because he was the cheapest price by far.

Thing about HVAC is there are so many moving parts as to exactly what work needs to be done to either replace an existing system or install a new system that you need to ensure you're comparing apples to apples on the quote. Then you also have service. Take a small one man show company who can have the best price, and then couple of years need service, see how long it takes to get that same guy to come out when it's 90 plus degrees and your system is down to get out to you...

Carpentry is not my skill set by far. I had to have a very large IMO 3 story deck replaced (I could probably of had a Geothermal HVAC installed for the same amount LOL). I'm too ashamed to say what I paid for that deck, but I can tell you this, the guy I chose was actually at the bottom tier pricing per quotes, he laid cement for the ground instead of replacing it with wood, and very happy with his work. Thing is, we knew we would have the replace the deck, and we had plenty of time to get 6 quotes for the deck and compare the pricing and what we were getting.

Thing is, when it's 100 degrees outside or below freezing and your HVAC goes down (be it residential or commercial) exactly how much time can you have like I had with getting my deck redone? Generally in the summer or winter, you don't have months to choose the right HVAC contractor, but days.

That said, HVAC is the wrong business to get into. People will ***** and complain about 10-15K to replace a entire HVAC system, but have no qualms spending 15-35K for a bathroom remodel. I know, as noted, wood working isn't my forte, and the last 3 years I had the master bath and guest bathroom remodeled from head to toe (really needed it since the house was built in the late 80's).