Tractors and (upcoming) tariffs?

[CloverKnollFarms]

He did lower my taxes... And if he makes markets happy, well, I'll be happy. Being retired at 47, I have enjoyed the Trump run up since Nov 6th.

 

[Duds13]

Yes, 45 huffed & puffed a lot, but really did very little beyond golfing. 47 will be be 45 redux. He's quite predictable.

What exactly did 46 do?

 

[Hay Dude]

What exactly did 46 do?

Lie

 

[Hay Dude]

Does anyone realize the amount of tariffs other countries put on US exports?

 

[square1]

What exactly did 46 do?

Pardoned 46 Jr

 

[Duds13]

Pardoned 46 Jr

and took close to 600 days of vacation

 

[square1]

He did lower my taxes... And if he makes markets happy, well, I'll be happy. Being retired at 47, I have enjoyed the Trump run up since Nov 6th.

The market had 42 week ending highs in 2024 prior to 11/6. Matter of fact there's only been one administration in my lifetime in which the market was lower at the end than the beginning.
Congrats on your early retirement. With my retirement scheduled in 2025 I've enjoyed the market run-up since 1/20/21. It's been a wonderful time to make money.

 

[DarkBlack]

Back to tariffs, I guess I'm a touch baffled that so many folks don't believe people are going to do exactly what they said they are going to do. The "10% on china" was "10% on top of the initial proposal of 60% increase across the board" which means 70% total if that lands (so 60% increases for anything from China across the board is currently best case). Maybe the 25% on Canada and Mexico will happen up front.. maybe it'll only be 10% and then ramp up as the retaliatory tariff war lands. I dunno.. but when someone says they're going to do something.. my first tendency is to go ahead and take them at their word.

I'm personally planning on basically everything to get 25-50% more expensive at a minimum and probably closer to double or more for a lot of things (especially any fresh food and most hard goods) in the next couple of years (not just due to tariffs, but other policies as well)

Because of this I've moved up a lot of purchases I was previously putting off, especially of anything that smells of imported goods (but also domestic maintenance items, etc.. because if it hits raw materials as hard as I think it will all that will have some harsh ripple effects). I'm planning on moving into hunker down and survive mode for the duration, I have a garden so can at least get fresh produce. I have some funds if necessary but will probably need a decent chunk of them to support elderly relatives as they get cut off from the various support systems (again.. that is literally what they said they were going to do.. and I have so far zero reason to disbelieve them). At this point I've written off ever getting Social Security and figure medical support is best case pay out of pocket until that's gone and then end it because there's zero chance ACA survives. Worst case I'm wrong and pre-spent a bit I didn't need to just yet (and a few businesses got some advantage out of that so good for them).

Will a lot of companies figure out how to evade and skirt the tariffs? Sure, they already are (how isn't hard to find if you look). Most of the ways that's happening are also detrimental to the domestic economy as well so .. shrug not much I can do about it except what I've always done.. survive.

I'm pretty sure I'm not alone on this one as I personally know a bunch of folks who are not getting their usual x-mas bonuses because businesses owners are stockpiling goods ahead of the expected changes to try to buffer out the cost increases and that has consumed the available capital that would normally have been used to fund those.

I’m more concerned with the current admin provoking a life ending nuclear war, than some product tariffs with next one. You might want consider “hunkering down “ for this

 

[square1]

and took close to 600 days of vacation

Dang, that's a lot of vacation. Maybe I'll run for office after I retire. Doesn't sound like it's too hard of a job. Golf & vacation (except I don't golf)!

 

[Hay Dude]

The market had 42 week ending highs in 2024 prior to 11/6. Matter of fact there's only been one administration in my lifetime in which the market was lower at the end than the beginning.
Congrats on your early retirement. With my retirement scheduled in 2025 I've enjoyed the market run-up since 1/20/21. It's been a wonderful time to make money.

No record inflation eating away at that “wonderful time to make money”?

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

The market had 42 week ending highs in 2024 prior to 11/6. Matter of fact there's only been one administration in my lifetime in which the market was lower at the end than the beginning.
Congrats on your early retirement. With my retirement scheduled in 2025 I've enjoyed the market run-up since 1/20/21. It's been a wonderful time to make money.

And November was the best month of 2024

 

[rumwrks]

Do you watch CNN and/or MSNBC?

Not even a little (I last watched CNN during gulf war 1, I don't remember ever watching MSNBC, I don't watch Faux News or any of their ilk either). I DO however listen to what the people who are going to be doing things are in fact saying and take them at their word. It seems like people only want to believe what makes them feel good.

Why are you people still here then? If it's going to be so bad leave now while you still can. Everyone will be broke or dead in a few months, according to your news that you are addicted to. The less of you people around the better

I have business and property and family and a community here. How much of that survives is still to be determined. Regardless I feel responsible for at least trying to take care of some of them, unlike it appears some other folks.

My suggestion would be to turn off the television and don’t believe anything that the “news” media tells you to believe.

I don't watch TV. I don't even have a TV, I had a TV for a couple years in the 90's and that's the first and last time I watched it outside occasionally when stuck in a hotel room. I also don't get my "news" from facebook or tik-tok like it seems a lot of people do nowadays. I do watch what people are actually saying and read published policy proposals. It ain't complicated when someone says they're going to do something believe them until proven otherwise (and then pay attention if they didn't do it because they were blocked, or because they actually didn't want to).

Yes, 45 huffed & puffed a lot, but really did very little beyond golfing. 47 will be be 45 redux. He's quite predictable.

He tried to do a lot of things, and some of them succeeded... I expect a lot more to succeed this round. Dismissing what people say they're going to do as "well they won't actually do that.." or "they wouldn't do that because.." just doesn't make sense to me... they might not succeed in some cases but for tariffs in particular the head honcho has basically unilateral power to enact them so I'm still confused on why folks don't think they'll land.

interest rates are stoopid high.

Laughs in buying a house in the 80's. Granted the place we bought in the early 2000's we got an ARM against my better instincts at 6.2 and the interest rate astonishingly went DOWN when it reset. Of course being a responsible consumer and actually saving and paying my debts I didn't get any of the mortgage relief deals that happened during the crash. This time around the pricing bubble didn't burst when interest rates went up closer to historical norms, but it was slowing down a bit (it seems like the blocking factor was mostly people "stuck" with low interest rate mortgages who couldn't afford to move, eventually that would have eased itself out I believe.. although we'll never know for sure now). I expect housing in particular to go way up as we loose labour and materials prices increase dramatically. I also expect interest rates to drop through the floor which will push another round of speculative investment projects as capital seeks better returns (so bullish for crypto scams and dodgy real estate investment businesses.. which will probably also push up housing prices unless we see a crash but that won't likely happen until after the current bubble gets inflated more).

 

[Hay Dude]

Laughs in buying a house in the 80's. Granted the place we bought in the early 2000's we got an ARM against my better instincts at 6.2 and the interest rate astonishingly went DOWN when it reset. Of course being a responsible consumer and actually saving and paying my debts I didn't get any of the mortgage relief deals that happened during the crash. This time around the pricing bubble didn't burst when interest rates went up closer to historical norms, but it was slowing down a bit (it seems like the blocking factor was mostly people "stuck" with low interest rate mortgages who couldn't afford to move, eventually that would have eased itself out I believe.. although we'll never know for sure now). I expect housing in particular to go way up as we loose labour and materials prices increase dramatically. I also expect interest rates to drop through the floor which will push another round of speculative investment projects as capital seeks better returns (so bullish for crypto scams and dodgy real estate investment businesses.. which will probably also push up housing prices unless we see a crash but that won't likely happen until after the current bubble gets inflated more).

I don’t think so. My guess is based on the economy and the signals from the Fed, interest rates are going to remain high.
I just got an email from RedFin last night and they predict the same. Here’s a snippet from the article:

 

[rumwrks]

I don’t think so. My guess is based on the economy and the signals from the Fed, interest rates are going to remain high.

I think that depends a bit on how independent the Fed can remain. The people behind the executive branch are seem largely in favor of a less independent Fed and lower interest rates (there's some fraction that are of the "end the fed" crowd but I'm not sure how much traction that will actually get, hopefully not to much). I'm sure there will be a big power struggle over that, and how it plays out is indeed anyones guess. I'm kind of hedging on the case that the executive side gets to do what they say they want to do, which will cost me a bit but I don't think as much as if I'm wrong then other direction.

I'd also consider current interest rates relatively moderate, and not especially high. At least based on rates during my lifetime . Personally I think they fed waited to long to raise them back up and should have eased us back towards 5-6% more incrementally years ago. The ridiculously low rates were intended as a salvage operation for the 2008 crash and we should have corrected them as quickly as possible after that was resolved.

 

[ultrarunner]

Can't think of lots of tariff items for home construction outside from Canadian lumber and Chinese Drywall.

I could be out of date so maybe more is sourced overseas like copper wire and copper pipe?

Home prices are down here but materials still up...

 

[bvanek]

Does anyone realize the amount of tariffs other countries put on US exports?

Well, Hay Dude, by design, reality escapes these sheltered folks, They really think they are smarter than the new cavalry coming in. But how smart are you when you pretend that business as usual is working? They are satisfied with being a service nation with big government in control. Or teaching future generations to become professional street gangs and hating our country.....

When other countries are taking advantage of weak leadership and the power of a purposeful motive of division within. Divide and conquer has historical references for failed societies.
In a new poll last month people ranked China as #1 threat but didn't think that way as early as 3 years ago. Trump called out China back in the 80's . Chinese spy balloons! No big deal

The left played the same panic button during covid, and pumped up mandatory shutdowns with political targets They are famous for using a crisis or a perceived one as a weapon (as in voting integrity). The crisis the country is in right now because of leftist politics is lying eyes wide shut. Of course they are butt hurt and don't figure on anything but their usual phony projection, so they just open their mouths.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

The new administration said they would impose tariffs, IF certain things were not rectified. So again, I don't expect to see many tariffs. I do expect to see other nations coming to the table now that the US is poised to protect itself. Joe is asleep, Kamala is on a boxed wine bender...

 

[Hay Dude]

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Don't let anyone take away your power... Anyone. Ever. ((Hiccup))

 

[rumwrks]

Can't think of lots of tariff items for home construction outside from Canadian lumber and Chinese Drywall.

I could be out of date so maybe more is sourced overseas like copper wire and copper pipe?

Steel for framing, screws, nails, and yes most copper is sourced overseas in one way or another (the big US copper mines have been mostly shut down for decades starting in the Reagan years and progressively closing from there). Most pipe is actually plastic now (I have.. opinions.. on that hah) but that's almost all overseas sourced in some fashion or another as well (at least the raw materials but commonly the finished product). Try to find US made plumbing fittings at all and hold your breath on prices for the small handful you can find.

The new administration said they would impose tariffs, IF certain things were not rectified.

I don't really see that most of the things imposed as conditions as being easily rectifiable. There's no magical "fix things" button people can push. We got tariffs last time and the Canadian lumber tariffs and Chinese steel tarrifs in particular shot the rate of construction locally right in the head. I had a friend who was working on building a 5000 square foot brewery (they had the land and were in the permitting phase) as a scale up/out of their existing facility and bailed on it once the price of steel shot through the roof after the tariffs hit. The local development fees were ruinous but barely survivable, the combined costs though were to much. So that was another half dozen/dozen jobs lost right there (which yeah, not a lot, but it's also an otherwise depressed small town).

And.. I see we've moved from reasoned discourse to "whataboutism" and ******** meme's.. Figures...