It's the extended cold that really effects the geo system. Loop geothermal doesn't have the delta T in this cold weather like a pump and dump geo system like paul has. In an extended cold or heat spell, the ground temp doesn't change fast enough, the loops cant recover much. It's still better than an air system.
A closed loop system will cold soak the heat sink, weather it’s buried loops or a loop in a drilled and grouted well, as compared to an open loop system where the water is drawn from one well and returned to the aquifer via a second well. The open loop system has the entire aquifer as a heat sink and will provide water at about 55° regardless of the outside temperature. However for totally illogical reasons, many locales won’t approve an open loop system.
The good news is that a heat pump doesn’t lose much efficiency, just capacity as the evaporator is in low ambient conditions, whether it be water or air. It would be a safe bet that Dennis’ loop return is at least 20 degrees above the ambient when it is this cold outside.
The huge advances in heat pump efficiency pioneered by mini splits were a result of having a microprocessor control the entire process. They use a variable speed compressor, electronically controlled expansion devices and variable speed fans at both the condenser and evaporator.
This technology is just beginning to trickle into conventional heat pumps, and only partially adopted in the geo world.
I’m guessing that Dennis has variable speed loop pumps, but a single speed compressor (possibly two stage) and a fixed speed blower. That might be an ECM blower, but other then ramping up to speed, it likely runs at a single programmed speed rather than as part of a process control.
That is essentially the way mine works, but with a motorized ball valve to control the flow rather than a loop pump.
The bottom line is that a high end conventional heat pump is likely more efficient than a legacy geo system, almost certainly if it’s a closed loop system.