Tractors and (upcoming) tariffs?

[jyoutz]

Never said “very soon”. I said a “short period of time”. I think it’ll take a few months.
But you better go hide under the covers and get ready for the economic apocalypse.

Not hiding. I’m well prepared and my assets are protected. I’m just going to go buy more popcorn. I feel sorry for those who are going to be badly hurt.

 

[Hay Dude]

Not hiding. I’m well prepared and my assets are protected. I’m just going to go buy more popcorn. I feel sorry for those who are going to be badly hurt.

You only get “badly hurt” if you panic and start blathering irrationally.
Here’s where cooler, smarter people make weaker “sky is falling” people look silly.

Sure, disaster can happen. Nobody knows. But I know I’m more confident and much stronger in my perseverance than you are. I hope you can find strength and get some confidence that you’ll survive and be ok.
Try not to panic so much.

 

[jyoutz]

You only get “badly hurt” if you panic and start blathering irrationally.
Here’s where cooler, smarter people make weaker “sky is falling” people look silly.

Sure, disaster can happen. Nobody knows. But I know I’m more confident and much stronger in my perseverance than you are. I hope you can find strength and get some confidence that you’ll survive and be ok.
Try not to panic so much.

LOL. No panic. I already said my assets are good and I’m happy to watch while eating popcorn. I can retire any day I choose and be doing fine. Can you?

 

[ultrarunner]

My grandparents as newly weds in 1927 said the Depression made an ever lasting impact on their lives.

From our discussions I learned…

Cash is King

Silver and Gold coins better

Stay out of Debt

Pay as you go

Live within your means and never put in the dog…

Labor becomes very cheap with many willing to work for daily sustenance…

Shed dependence and learn a trade…

So what has changed a hundred years later?

We are no longer on the Gold Standard and the government provides food, shelter, healthcare and a stipend without the need to labor.

We have generations in my city with Section 8 housing, monthly income, EBT, no cost healthcare, etc… good times or bad they still have fiber internet and cell phones provided.

Taxes as in sales and property are very high and for many taxes in all forms there largest expenditures…

 

[Hay Dude]

LOL. No panic. I already said my assets are good and I’m happy to watch while eating popcorn. I can retire any day I choose and be doing fine. Can you?

I’m not old enough to think about retiring. Good luck in yours. Hope you don’t panic & sell off.

 

[jyoutz]

I’m not old enough to think about retiring. Good luck in yours. Hope you don’t panic & sell off.

My assets will pay off all debt including mortgage with plenty left over. My pension, wife’s pension, and SS will provide a decent annual income. I need to protect assets so I can be debt free the day I decide to retire. Everyone’s situation is different. The currant situation only causes concern for my children and other people who I don’t want to see hurt.

 

[jyoutz]

Additionally, we have an acute labor shortage in this country today and it's not because the labor market isn't there, it's because many of the current labor pool DON'T WANT TO WORK IN THE FIRST PLACE. If they do want to work, they all want a Cadillac wage from the get go and full benefits right from the start and many aren't willing to perform any manual labor anyway, let alone pass a drug test which is still mandatory for employment in an industrial setting.

I know about that first hand and one of the main reasons I retired as a manager. When you cannot hire enough employees to man a full shift because they cannot pass a drug screen or they come to work for a day or two and realize manual labor is involved and never come back because they actually had to do manual labor, it's very frustration. The outfit I retired from was a revolving door for employees because unlike the old days, none of them (or at least a large percentage really don't want to work in the first place. They prefer to collect public assistance and do nothing constructive to better themselves.

Sadly, we live in a society that does not want to work and if they do and pass a drug screen, they don't last at all.

Why I retired as the grief level at least for me was not sustainable.

I’m sure that your experiences are accurate. I work with lots of young adults and have a couple of 20-30 year old sons. What is happening is the more ambitious young people don’t view manufacturing as a rewarding and interesting career choice, and they are pursuing other careers. The people you are seeing in manufacturing are the “less ambitious.” This shouldn’t be the case, but it is.

 

[Mtsoxfan]

So as long as we feed, house, cloth, provide healthcare, there is a reduced incentive to work. I get not wanting to be part of the rat race, but that choice should bring consequences, not reward. but, it does buy votes.

And this is from the generation that does work, but under their terms.

Roughly half of Gen Z workers say they don't want to return to the office because it means they can't binge-watch their favorite TV shows during work anymore

Fine, but again, let's not reward. I was hungry once, for food and wanting of nicer things. It was a very, very easy fix. I worked. Getting where I am did not happen overnight. it made me who I am. I made sacrifices, didn't have cable tv, new car etc. I worked up to that. I do not want the money I am forced to give the government to pay for those who chose not to work, who spend money foolishly, who scam etc. I have 0 compassion for those people. Maybe if they, God forbid, suffer, they will pull themselves up by their bootstraps and succeed.

 

[ultrarunner]

So as long as we feed, house, cloth, provide healthcare, there is a reduced incentive to work. I get not wanting to be part of the rat race, but that choice should bring consequences, not reward. but, it does buy votes.

And this is from the generation that does work, but under their terms.

Roughly half of Gen Z workers say they don't want to return to the office because it means they can't binge-watch their favorite TV shows during work anymore

Fine, but again, let's not reward. I was hungry once, for food and wanting of nicer things. It was a very, very easy fix. I worked. Getting where I am did not happen overnight. it made me who I am. I made sacrifices, didn't have cable tv, new car etc. I worked up to that. I do not want the money I am forced to give the government to pay for those who chose not to work, who spend money foolishly, who scam etc. I have 0 compassion for those people. Maybe if they, God forbid, suffer, they will pull themselves up by their bootstraps and succeed.

I perceived suffering comes the riots and looting starts…

Tariffs and rising prices will not just affect tractors but just about everything in a modern lifestyle…

We only have one auto manufacturer of size and it’s Tesla with thousands of locals employed and by far Tesla buyers tend not to be conservative but open season declared in Tesla and Drivers… I personally know several that have sold their Teslas recently out of fear… they loved their cars before but now don’t or are simply afraid…

Makes zero sense and the add Elon is a minority owner with so many retirement funds owning the lion share it’s stupidity… but this is where we are today…

 

[big bubba]

Mtsoxfan: sounds as if you had good work ethic & ambition in youth. not sure of your age, but i'm in mid 70's. i will say i was able to do well & am reasonably ok in later life stage during my working carer

but given current housing, inflation, uncertain job & economy, even with the work ethic that you expound, our youth i think are facing more challenges than i did in trying to achieve what we have done ourselves

we can point fingers, but it's the world we are leaving our youth. let's try to keep the faith

 

[Mtsoxfan]

Mtsoxfan: sounds as if you had good work ethic & ambition in youth. not sure of your age, but i'm in mid 70's. i will say i was able to do well & am reasonably ok in later life stage during my working carer

but given current housing, inflation, uncertain job & economy, even with the work ethic that you expound, our youth i think are facing more challenges than i did in trying to achieve what we have done ourselves

we can point fingers, but it's the world we are leaving our youth. let's try to keep the faith

Yeah, mid 63 myself. I do agree, the price of housing is so much more.
As for the riots previously posted, as long as one side of government doesn't allow/promote, something can be done about that. Many are already prepared...
All that said, I do believe in a hand up, not a hand out. If you are working, and can't make ends meet due to childcare, healthcare etc. and not spending money on $1000 phone, $250 a month cable/streaming etc. as a civilized society, and taxed fairly, (like that can ever happen) there is a responsibility to help.

 

[ultrarunner]

It’s not 1929 anymore…

Credit plans already in the works to extend longer terms at lower rates to roll in the added costs of tariffs for that new tractor…

Credit is the American way and bankruptcy is the way out…

Since the 60’s dependent lifestyles requiring no work have evolved to cover just about everything needed.

When it becomes generational the chances of breaking the cycle are slim… and it becomes the only way for many…

Imagine living in a single family 3 bedroom 2 bath suburban home with garden service paying $50 month rent, discounted utilities including high speed, no cost cell phone, full medical, EBT, school meals even when school is out of session and driving a modest new car in the driveway… with enough in the budget for smokes and cable?

What keeps the ship afloat is kids having kids…

It’s been a few years since I last checked but then a family of 4 would need to earn 88k to duplicate subsidies… scary to venture into the stress of the real world when doing nothing safely provides the necessities of life food, shelter, etc… and some luxuries too.

 

[jyoutz]

It’s not 1929 anymore…

Since the 60’s dependent lifestyles requiring no work have evolved to cover just about everything needed.

When it becomes generational the chances of breaking the cycle are slim… and it becomes the only way for many…

Imagine living in a single family 3 bedroom 2 bath suburban home with garden service paying $50 month rent, discounted utilities including high speed, no cost cell phone, full medical, EBT, school meals even when school is out of session and driving a modest new car in the driveway… with enough in the budget for smokes and cable?

What keeps the ship afloat is kids having kids…

It’s been a few years since I last checked but then a family of 4 would need to earn 88k to duplicate subsidies… scary to venture into the stress of the real world when doing nothing safely provides the necessities of life food, shelter, etc… and some luxuries too.

You are extrapolating a small minority of people to the vast generation of young people today. Most do work and support themselves and their families. There are a vast choice of career paths in this country.

 

[ultrarunner]

You are extrapolating a small minority of people to the vast generation of young people today. Most do work and support themselves and their families. There are a vast choice of career paths in this country.

Fundamentally most will relate or see life through our experiences…

5 generations of my family have called Oakland CA home so it really shapes my perspective…

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Canada has a significantly smaller population than the U.S. and so do many of the countries with tariffs.

The US is the third most populous country in the world. Every country but India and China is smaller than us.

 

[jyoutz]

The US is the third most populous country in the world. Every country but India and China is smaller than us.

Yep, and that’s why it’s unrealistic to expect them to buy the same amount of export goods that we import.

 

[WinterDeere]

Yep, and that’s why it’s unrealistic to expect them to buy the same amount of export goods that we import.

I think you're getting hung up on phrasology, as I don't think anyone ever implied that a small country should buy the same amount of goods that we import.

I think the implication was that many countries sell more to us than they buy from us, which is a completely different discussion, unless you assume that country only buys all of their goods from us, and we only buy all of our goods from them. We know that's never the case, we buy some of their goods for some of our needs, and they buy some of our goods for some of their needs.

Countries on the rise will generally export more than they import, and importing more than you export is generally a sign that you've peaked and are heading for a decline. Not all imports or exports are physical goods, they may be service work, which may include medical, engineering, and other intellectual properties (research, software, etc.). There is nothing that dictates small countries must export more to the USA than they import from the USA, but it is more likely their exports be manufactured goods, while their imports may be medicine, software, and other technologies used to generate those manufactured goods.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

I think you're getting hung up on phrasology, as I don't think anyone ever implied that a small country should buy the same amount of goods that we import.

I think the implication was that many countries sell more to us than they buy from us, which is a completely different discussion, unless you assume that country only buys all of their goods from us, and we only buy all of our goods from them. We know that's never the case, we buy some of their goods for some of our needs, and they buy some of our goods for some of their needs.

Countries on the rise will generally export more than they import, and importing more than you export is generally a sign that you've peaked and are heading for a decline. Not all imports or exports are physical goods, they may be service work, which may include medical, engineering, and other intellectual properties (research, software, etc.). There is nothing that dictates small countries must export more to the USA than they import from the USA, but it is more likely their exports be manufactured goods, while their imports may be medicine, software, and other technologies used to generate those manufactured goods.

Trade plus net capital flows will always balance. If they don't, currency will start to pile up and will devalue until balance is restored.

What are "net capital flows"? Investment. The reason the US has a trade deficit is that it has a very strong net capital flow, because it is -- or was -- the best place in the world to invest money. People with money in other countries want our stocks and bonds. As a nation, we benefit tremendously, with low interest rates and low capital cost for our companies.

A trade imbalance is not a sign of economic weakness. It's a sign of strength. We have been the world's investment choice because we have had the world's most productive economy.

Trump is literally trying to fix a problem that isn't a problem.

 

[WinterDeere]

The reason the US has a trade deficit is that it has a very strong net capital flow, because it is -- or was -- the best place in the world to invest money. People with money in other countries want our stocks and bonds. As a nation, we benefit tremendously, with low interest rates and low capital cost for our companies.

Yes. We became "the best place in the world to invest money" by the 1980's. How did we get there?

If our companies make use of this strong position to continue outsourcing everything from manufacturing to research, do you expect the regime to continue perpetually?

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Yes. We became "the best place in the world to invest money" by the 1980's. How did we get there?

If our companies make use of this strong position to continue outsourcing everything from manufacturing to research, do you expect the regime to continue perpetually?

From 1815 until after WWI Great Britain held the role that the US plays today. They ran massive trade deficits and were able to sustain it for over a century. So it is sustainable.

When you have the world's most productive economy, capital flows to you. Your companies have access to cheaper capital than competitors in other countries, which makes them more productive. It's a virtuous cycle.

Here's an article from Paul Krugman explaining why a trade surplus is a sign of weakness, not strength:

China’s Very Bad, No Good Trillion-Dollar Trade Surplus

It’s a sign of weakness, not strength, but a problem for everyone

paulkrugman.substack.com