MossRoad
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Speaking of untouched, I'm not touching that in this thread.
How could Artificial Intelligence become dangerous?
- Thread starter MinnesotaEric
- Start date
- Views: 32917
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California
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Ok, fair enough.Speaking of untouched, I'm not touching that in this thread.
Maybe you should ask AI what the best outcome is. Will we all become mouth breathing, screen watchers while mother AI takes care of our every need?
Or how about asking what is the most likely outcome? Age old story: those who own/control the AI tools hoard ever more wealth until society collapses?
Or maybe ask if AI will save us from the looming debt crisis?
Can AI fix cars? Can it maintain a home? Can it do hands on projects? Can AI make the angry wife happy?
I don't deal with corporate bulls*** where I assume AI shines, so what should I do with AI to "keep current"? Make slick misinformational videos? The world really doesn't need any more of those. Use it to swindle people? Should I ask AI what it recommends that the average person does to be subtly controlled, er, um, to become proficient and productive at using AI? I don't even know where these AIs are to ask them and considering the gobbledygook a google search "AI overview" spews out I wouldn't trust anything they output!
Seriously though, besides business, for the average person, what is AI useful for at this stage?
paulsharvey
Elite Member
So, you can run a very fast, rough business idea through it. Grocery store closed in town near me, and small liquor store opens. Facebook Karen's posting about what "Should" go there. Son throws the aerial into Chat, and asks for a business idea. Boom, 30 seconds later, Gym, with a start up cost, annual operating costs, anticipated subscriptions based on vehicle counts, a nutritional subliment room, sales numbers, stocking ideas, ect. Point is, I never would have thought of a gym as a good use for that building.
So; mechanic, ok, AI can order filters based on car registration within a 25 mile radius; suggest better locations, or cost effective upgrades, staffing, and do your advertising.
Yes, 100%, you want to check all that over, with your experienced options, but you really going to spend 2 weeks calculating all the figures for 13 business ideas?
paulsharvey
Elite Member
ChatGPT will give you a stocking plan, with rotational grazing plan, in about 45 seconds. Heck, it will draw a overview, and show good areas for your water runs, stock tanks, and loading/unloading areas. Heck, it will give you what cattle breeds sell well in your area.
paulsharvey
Elite Member
Great question. For the average American, the best uses of AI are usually the ones that save time, money, and mental energy in everyday life. Here are the most practical areas:
---
1. Personal Productivity
Writing help → draft emails, letters, reports, resumes, or cover letters faster.
Summarization → condense long articles, contracts, meeting notes, or government documents into plain English.
Brainstorming → generate ideas for side hustles, projects, or problem solving.
---
2. Financial & Consumer Tools
Budgeting & expense tracking → AI tools can analyze spending and suggest where to cut back.
Comparison shopping → find cheaper insurance, cell plans, or utility providers.
Tax help → explain deductions and credits in plain terms.
---
3. Learning & Skill-Building
Tutoring → AI can explain math, science, or history in a simple way, tailored to your level.
Job skills → practice coding, get interview prep, or learn trade skills with step-by-step guidance.
Language learning → instant translation or conversational practice.
---
4. Work & Side Hustles
Small business help → generate marketing copy, logos, social media posts, or customer replies.
Freelancing → speed up research, data entry, or content creation.
Trades & DIY → AI can generate materials lists, plans, or cost estimates for projects.
---
5. Everyday Life
Meal planning & recipes → AI can suggest affordable meals based on what you already have.
Health tracking (non-medical) → organize fitness routines, sleep schedules, or habit goals.
Travel planning → build itineraries, compare flights, or find hidden local spots.
---
The real value is that AI acts like a personal assistant + tutor + researcher—always available, without needing to hire someone.
Would you like me to break this down into a "top 5 most useful everyday AI tasks" list, so you can see where you’d get the biggest return right away?
---
1. Personal Productivity
Writing help → draft emails, letters, reports, resumes, or cover letters faster.
Summarization → condense long articles, contracts, meeting notes, or government documents into plain English.
Brainstorming → generate ideas for side hustles, projects, or problem solving.
---
2. Financial & Consumer Tools
Budgeting & expense tracking → AI tools can analyze spending and suggest where to cut back.
Comparison shopping → find cheaper insurance, cell plans, or utility providers.
Tax help → explain deductions and credits in plain terms.
---
3. Learning & Skill-Building
Tutoring → AI can explain math, science, or history in a simple way, tailored to your level.
Job skills → practice coding, get interview prep, or learn trade skills with step-by-step guidance.
Language learning → instant translation or conversational practice.
---
4. Work & Side Hustles
Small business help → generate marketing copy, logos, social media posts, or customer replies.
Freelancing → speed up research, data entry, or content creation.
Trades & DIY → AI can generate materials lists, plans, or cost estimates for projects.
---
5. Everyday Life
Meal planning & recipes → AI can suggest affordable meals based on what you already have.
Health tracking (non-medical) → organize fitness routines, sleep schedules, or habit goals.
Travel planning → build itineraries, compare flights, or find hidden local spots.
---
The real value is that AI acts like a personal assistant + tutor + researcher—always available, without needing to hire someone.Would you like me to break this down into a "top 5 most useful everyday AI tasks" list, so you can see where you’d get the biggest return right away?
paulsharvey
Elite Member
Of those, I think.most are BS, but brain storming, translation, ect.
I have asked it to make a meal idea, using 1# of 93% lean ground beef you feed a family of 5; and it spit out something that was fine.
I don't want it making my grocery list, driving my car, or many many other things, but yeah, im gonna play with it, so atleast im familiar with it, as it gets more and more main stream. No, its not going to turn a wrench, lay pipe, or cook for you.
I have asked it to make a meal idea, using 1# of 93% lean ground beef you feed a family of 5; and it spit out something that was fine.
I don't want it making my grocery list, driving my car, or many many other things, but yeah, im gonna play with it, so atleast im familiar with it, as it gets more and more main stream. No, its not going to turn a wrench, lay pipe, or cook for you.
EscapedSuburbia
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According to an article I just read not only does a lot of the water get lost to evaporation, but the water that does return to the ground has chemicals that they add to reduce scaling and other problems with their cooling coils. I don't know if it's true or not since it's just something I read on some random internet site, but it does cause some concern.
paulsharvey
Elite Member
Here’s a draft business plan for opening a quick oil change / lube / mechanic shop in Newberry, Florida. I’ll include market context, a suggested location, startup & ongoing expenses, revenue projections, and some assumptions. You can adjust numbers for scale or more precise local data.
---
1. Local Market & Context
Newberry, in Alachua County, Florida, has an estimated population of ~7,600–8,400 people as of recent estimates.
The median household income is about $100,000 in recent data.
The city is growing (annual growth ~2–3%) and is relatively close to Gainesville, which may expand the potential customer base.
These factors suggest there's disposable income, some growth, and possibly underserved demand for vehicle maintenance / lube services, especially if located near commuter routes or residential clusters.
---
2. Suggested Location
To maximize traffic and visibility, you’d want:
A site on or near a busy road / state highway, where cars pass regularly. Perhaps near State Road 26 or another primary route through or near Newberry.
Close enough to residential neighborhoods and also accessible to people commuting to Gainesville, to catch both locals and pass-through traffic.
Also desirable: space with room for multiple service bays (say 2-4 bays) and parking / drive-in & drive-out capability. A lot size that can accommodate oil storage, waste oil handling, etc.
A commercial pad near a shopping center or near major intersections would help. Lease or buy depending on budgets; leasing reduces upfront cost but adds fixed monthly expense. If reasonably priced land is available, buying could be advantageous long term.
---
3. Startup Costs & One-Time Expenses
Here are the types of costs you can expect, with rough numbers for Newberry-scale (smaller shop but service oriented). All numbers are estimates and should be refined locally.
Category Estimated Cost
Real Estate / Building / Lot Lease: $3,000-$7,000/month depending on size/location. Purchase + construction: $200,000-$500,000 depending on land, size, building & shop fit-out.
Leasehold Improvements / Renovation $20,000-$50,000 (drive bays, flooring, oil safe catch, ventilation, shop lights, etc.)
Equipment & Tools Oil change bays, lifts (if doing more than just lube), jacks, air compressor, waste oil / fluid storage, disposal setup: ~ $50,000-$100,000 depending on how much mechanical work you plan to do beyond basic oil & lube.
Initial Inventory (oil, filters, fluids, parts) $10,000-$20,000
Permits, Licenses, Environmental Compliance $2,000-$10,000 (waste oil permits, business licenses, environmental regs, signage)
Insurance (property, liability, workers comp) First year: ~$5,000-$15,000 depending on size and risk exposure
Office / Shop Fixtures & Utilities Setup $5,000-$10,000 (office furniture, waiting room, restrooms, signage, etc.)
Marketing / Grand Opening $2,000-$10,000 (signage, local ads, online presence, promo offers)
Working Capital Reserve 3-6 months of operating expenses: include payroll, utilities, rent, supplies. Estimate ~$50,000-$100,000 depending on scale.
So total upfront investment might be somewhere around $200,000 to $600,000 for a modest shop doing oil changes + some mechanical work, depending on real estate decisions. If you go lean (lower rent, fewer bays, minimal mechanical work), it might be on the lower end.
---
4. Ongoing Operating Costs (Monthly & Annual)
Some of the recurring/daily costs you need to plan for:
Expense Line Estimate per Month
Rent or mortgage payment $3,000 to $8,000+ depending on size/location
Utilities (electric, water, waste oil disposal, etc.) $1,000-$2,500
Payroll (technicians, lube techs, front office) Depends on number of staff; e.g., 2 techs + 1 lube tech + 1 admin = maybe $15,000-$25,000/month, depending on wage rates.
Insurance $500-$1,500/month
Inventory restocking (oil, filters, fluids, parts) $5,000-$15,000 depending on volume and services
Marketing & advertising $500-$2,000
Maintenance & miscellaneous (equipment repair, shop cleaning, supplies) $500-$1,500
Loan payments (if financed) Variable; maybe $2,000-$5,000 depending on loan size & rate
Total monthly operating expenses might lie between $30,000 and $60,000+, depending on scale.
---
5. Revenue Projections
To estimate revenues, you’ll need assumptions. Here's a model for a “moderate” shop:
Number of oil/lube customers per day: assume 20-30 (for simple oil/lube/quick services)
Average ticket per customer: $50-$90 depending on oil type (conventional vs synthetic), filter cost, plus upsells (fluids, inspections). Let’s assume an average of $70.
Days open per month: ~26 (closed Sundays or some holidays)
So:
Revenue from oil/lube = 30 customers/day × $70 × 26 days = $54,600/month
Add mechanical services (repairs, brakes, diagnostics, etc.):
Suppose mechanical adds another 30-50% on top of that: another ~$20,000-$30,000/month
So total monthly revenue might be in the range $70,000-$90,000 for a small/medium shop.
Annually, that’s $840,000 to $1,080,000.
If the shop is smaller (fewer bays, fewer staff), maybe half of that. If it’s larger or in a premium location, perhaps higher.
---
6. Expected Profit & Break-Even
Some margin assumptions:
Oil/lube margin is lower (parts + oil cost, and low labor per job) — margins of ~40-50% on oil changes.
Mechanical repairs tend to have higher margins, depending on parts + labor mix.
After covering operating expenses, loan/lease payments, taxes, etc., a healthy shop might aim for 10-25% net profit (of gross revenue) depending on efficiency, overhead, competition.
To break even, you need to cover monthly costs. For example, if monthly fixed + variable costs are $45,000, you need revenue of maybe $55,000-$60,000/month or about $660,000-$720,000/year.
---
7. Sample Financial Projections (3-Year)
Here’s a rough 3-year projection for a modest shop:
Year Revenue Operating Costs Net Profit
Year 1 (ramp-up) $700,000 $600,000 ~$70,000-$100,000
Year 2 $900,000 $650,000 ~$150,000-$200,000
Year 3 $1,100,000 $700,000 ~$250,000-$300,000
These assume you grow volume, streamline operations, add mechanical repair upsells, and get steady recurring customers.
---
8. Risks & Key Success Factors
Competition from existing quick-lubes or dealerships.
Keeping a reliable supply chain for oil, filters, parts.
Environmental and regulatory compliance (disposal of oil, fluid waste).
Hiring good techs and keeping quality; bad reviews hurt when people see oil leak etc.
Location is very important: visibility, ease of access.
Weather & seasonality may affect demand (people travel more, etc.).
---
If you like, I can model this for a lean shop vs full-service shop in Newberry, with more precise cost data for the immediate area, to see what the best scale is. Do you want that?
---
1. Local Market & Context
Newberry, in Alachua County, Florida, has an estimated population of ~7,600–8,400 people as of recent estimates.
The median household income is about $100,000 in recent data.
The city is growing (annual growth ~2–3%) and is relatively close to Gainesville, which may expand the potential customer base.
These factors suggest there's disposable income, some growth, and possibly underserved demand for vehicle maintenance / lube services, especially if located near commuter routes or residential clusters.
---
2. Suggested Location
To maximize traffic and visibility, you’d want:
A site on or near a busy road / state highway, where cars pass regularly. Perhaps near State Road 26 or another primary route through or near Newberry.
Close enough to residential neighborhoods and also accessible to people commuting to Gainesville, to catch both locals and pass-through traffic.
Also desirable: space with room for multiple service bays (say 2-4 bays) and parking / drive-in & drive-out capability. A lot size that can accommodate oil storage, waste oil handling, etc.
A commercial pad near a shopping center or near major intersections would help. Lease or buy depending on budgets; leasing reduces upfront cost but adds fixed monthly expense. If reasonably priced land is available, buying could be advantageous long term.
---
3. Startup Costs & One-Time Expenses
Here are the types of costs you can expect, with rough numbers for Newberry-scale (smaller shop but service oriented). All numbers are estimates and should be refined locally.
Category Estimated Cost
Real Estate / Building / Lot Lease: $3,000-$7,000/month depending on size/location. Purchase + construction: $200,000-$500,000 depending on land, size, building & shop fit-out.
Leasehold Improvements / Renovation $20,000-$50,000 (drive bays, flooring, oil safe catch, ventilation, shop lights, etc.)
Equipment & Tools Oil change bays, lifts (if doing more than just lube), jacks, air compressor, waste oil / fluid storage, disposal setup: ~ $50,000-$100,000 depending on how much mechanical work you plan to do beyond basic oil & lube.
Initial Inventory (oil, filters, fluids, parts) $10,000-$20,000
Permits, Licenses, Environmental Compliance $2,000-$10,000 (waste oil permits, business licenses, environmental regs, signage)
Insurance (property, liability, workers comp) First year: ~$5,000-$15,000 depending on size and risk exposure
Office / Shop Fixtures & Utilities Setup $5,000-$10,000 (office furniture, waiting room, restrooms, signage, etc.)
Marketing / Grand Opening $2,000-$10,000 (signage, local ads, online presence, promo offers)
Working Capital Reserve 3-6 months of operating expenses: include payroll, utilities, rent, supplies. Estimate ~$50,000-$100,000 depending on scale.
So total upfront investment might be somewhere around $200,000 to $600,000 for a modest shop doing oil changes + some mechanical work, depending on real estate decisions. If you go lean (lower rent, fewer bays, minimal mechanical work), it might be on the lower end.
---
4. Ongoing Operating Costs (Monthly & Annual)
Some of the recurring/daily costs you need to plan for:
Expense Line Estimate per Month
Rent or mortgage payment $3,000 to $8,000+ depending on size/location
Utilities (electric, water, waste oil disposal, etc.) $1,000-$2,500
Payroll (technicians, lube techs, front office) Depends on number of staff; e.g., 2 techs + 1 lube tech + 1 admin = maybe $15,000-$25,000/month, depending on wage rates.
Insurance $500-$1,500/month
Inventory restocking (oil, filters, fluids, parts) $5,000-$15,000 depending on volume and services
Marketing & advertising $500-$2,000
Maintenance & miscellaneous (equipment repair, shop cleaning, supplies) $500-$1,500
Loan payments (if financed) Variable; maybe $2,000-$5,000 depending on loan size & rate
Total monthly operating expenses might lie between $30,000 and $60,000+, depending on scale.
---
5. Revenue Projections
To estimate revenues, you’ll need assumptions. Here's a model for a “moderate” shop:
Number of oil/lube customers per day: assume 20-30 (for simple oil/lube/quick services)
Average ticket per customer: $50-$90 depending on oil type (conventional vs synthetic), filter cost, plus upsells (fluids, inspections). Let’s assume an average of $70.
Days open per month: ~26 (closed Sundays or some holidays)
So:
Revenue from oil/lube = 30 customers/day × $70 × 26 days = $54,600/month
Add mechanical services (repairs, brakes, diagnostics, etc.):
Suppose mechanical adds another 30-50% on top of that: another ~$20,000-$30,000/month
So total monthly revenue might be in the range $70,000-$90,000 for a small/medium shop.
Annually, that’s $840,000 to $1,080,000.
If the shop is smaller (fewer bays, fewer staff), maybe half of that. If it’s larger or in a premium location, perhaps higher.
---
6. Expected Profit & Break-Even
Some margin assumptions:
Oil/lube margin is lower (parts + oil cost, and low labor per job) — margins of ~40-50% on oil changes.
Mechanical repairs tend to have higher margins, depending on parts + labor mix.
After covering operating expenses, loan/lease payments, taxes, etc., a healthy shop might aim for 10-25% net profit (of gross revenue) depending on efficiency, overhead, competition.
To break even, you need to cover monthly costs. For example, if monthly fixed + variable costs are $45,000, you need revenue of maybe $55,000-$60,000/month or about $660,000-$720,000/year.
---
7. Sample Financial Projections (3-Year)
Here’s a rough 3-year projection for a modest shop:
Year Revenue Operating Costs Net Profit
Year 1 (ramp-up) $700,000 $600,000 ~$70,000-$100,000
Year 2 $900,000 $650,000 ~$150,000-$200,000
Year 3 $1,100,000 $700,000 ~$250,000-$300,000
These assume you grow volume, streamline operations, add mechanical repair upsells, and get steady recurring customers.
---
8. Risks & Key Success Factors
Competition from existing quick-lubes or dealerships.
Keeping a reliable supply chain for oil, filters, parts.
Environmental and regulatory compliance (disposal of oil, fluid waste).
Hiring good techs and keeping quality; bad reviews hurt when people see oil leak etc.
Location is very important: visibility, ease of access.
Weather & seasonality may affect demand (people travel more, etc.).
---
If you like, I can model this for a lean shop vs full-service shop in Newberry, with more precise cost data for the immediate area, to see what the best scale is. Do you want that?
California
Super Star Member
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2004
- Messages
- 15,016
- Location
- An hour north of San Francisco
- Tractor
- Yanmar YM240 Yanmar YM186D
Any provision for EV's in that plan? $2,500 for Utilities seems low. But it's interesting that you got a plan as least as good as one by an average consultant, and at far less cost.
